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Ukraine soybeans feel destination markets squeeze
Ukraine soybeans feel destination markets squeeze
Kyiv, 14 May (Argus) — Ukraine's soybean exporters could find it difficult to maintain the pace of shipments to their traditional markets in the last four months of the 2023-24 season, as abundant global soybean supplies pressure prices. Argus has forecast that Ukraine will export 3mn t of soybeans in the 2023-24 marketing year (September-August), with the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) projection 100,000t higher. Ukraine's cumulative soybean exports had reached 2.54mn t at the end of April, customs data show. This means that about 500,000t of soybeans remains to be exported in May-August to hit the full-year projections. For comparison, Ukraine exported nearly 574,000t in the same four months of last year. But abundant global soybean supply this season has pressured prices, including in some traditional destinations for Ukrainian-origin soybeans such as Egypt and Turkey. Many buyers are choosing US and Brazilian soybeans over Ukrainian, as their products are being offered at a discount of $10-15/t on a cif Egypt basis, a trader told Argus . As of 14 May, Ukrainian sellers were offering soybeans at $515/t cif Egypt, compared with bids of $505/t cif Egypt. Egypt and Turkey Ukraine exported about 95,400t of soybeans to Egypt in March, while April shipments were 30,500t. The USDA projects Egypt soybean imports at 2.8mn t this season, with about 1.55mn t already imported by the end of April, Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data show. The US and Brazil supplied more than 800,000t of that, while Ukraine delivered about 700,000t in September-April. Ukraine exported 51,000t of soybeans to Turkey in March, but only 4,300t in April, according to customs data. For the whole 2023-24 season, the USDA expects Turkey to import 3.1mn t of soybeans. In September-March, the country imported 1.47mn t, with volumes from Ukraine significantly down in March from the previous month, and arrivals from Brazil and the US offsetting this drop, according to GTT. In total, Ukraine supplied about 580,000t of soybeans to Turkey in September-March, GTT figures show. Ukrainian soybeans are likely to continue to be less competitive on the Egyptian and Turkish markets until the end of this season, because of large supplies from the US and Brazil. Higher local prices Ukrainian soybean prices remain firm, with buyers ready to pay $430-435/t cpt Reni/Izmail for the oilseed in the past seven days. Such prices — once transshipment costs and freight rates are added — make Ukrainian soybeans less competitive on a cif Egypt and cif Turkey basis. As a result, exporters have to look to other markets, such as Germany and the Netherlands. But deliveries by train and truck through Ukraine's western borders remain logistically complicated, leaving sea shipments the only viable option for traders. That said, with only about 500,000t of soybeans left for Ukraine to export to reach the 2023-24 projections, the available selling opportunities may be enough to hit the target. Even with decreased Ukrainian shipments to Egypt and Turkey, Ukraine April's exports of the product — at 134,000t — were in line with the five-year average of about 133,000t. By Kristin Yavorska Ukraine monthly raeseed exports 000't Ukraine cummulative soybean exports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rains persist in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
Rains persist in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul
Sao Paulo, 13 May (Argus) — Downpours that began flooding Brazil's heavily agricultural Rio Grande do Sul in late April persisted over the weekend, continuing to wreak havoc in the state. Rains reached an accumulated 123mm (4.8 inches) on 10-12 May in state capital Porto Alegre, according to Brazil's national meteorological institute Inmet. Some areas experienced around 80mm of rain on 12 May alone, according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Showers in Porto Alegre have reached an accumulated 502mm in May already, according to Brazilian meteorological firm Climatempo. The monthly average is of 111mm. River and lake levels also kept rising. The Guaiba lake, in the state's capital, reached 4.9m (16ft) on Monday morning — up from 4.8m on 10 May, according to the state government. It is considered in a flood stage once it reaches 3m. Most rivers in the state, such as the Gravatai, Taquari and Uruguai, are also above flood levels. A bridge over the Cai River, which links Nova Petropolis and Caxias do Sul cities, broke partially on Sunday. As a result, a stretch of the BR-116 highway is closed, according to the national department of transport infrastructure. The river's levels are 6m above normal. Brazil's national center for natural disaster monitoring and alerts still considers the risk of "new hydrological occurrences" to be "very high" in Rio Grande do Sul and neighboring Santa Catarina state. The extreme weather has left 147 dead and 127 missing, according to the civil defense. Over 538,000 people are displaced. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Argentina wheat area, production forecast to increase
Argentina wheat area, production forecast to increase
New York, 10 May (Argus) — Argentina's wheat area has increased anywhere from 3-10pc, with production increasing by 20pc, because of recent favorable factors, market participants said at an industry conference this week. Market participants representing wheat and barley producers, traders and buyers attended The Argentina National Wheat Congress on 9-10 May in Mar del Plata. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage) presented forecasts for wheat and barley production for the 2024-25 marketing year. Bage forecasts 6.2mn hectares (ha) planted with production estimated at 18.1mn t for 2024-25 compared with 5.9mn ha planted and production of 15.1mn t for 2023-24. Barley production is forecast to increase to 5.1mn t on 1.3mn ha planted compared with 5mn t produced and 1.25mn ha planted in 2023-24. The Secretary of Bioeconomy anticipates wheat area at 6.1mn ha while other presenters and panelists spoke of potentially 6.7mn ha and production of 20mn t in a best case scenario. Argentina will begin to plant its wheat and barley within the next several weeks and several factors have turned positive recently. The Argus assessed price of Argentina's 11.5pc wheat has increased 14pc since the beginning of the year following the global market as weather issues in Russia and the US have caused global prices to rise. On a more local level, soil moisture in the major wheat growing areas of Argentina have improved significantly. While the rains in April and May have delayed the corn and soybean harvest, it will benefit wheat planting. For 36pc of the wheat area, water availability is currently over 80pc compared with less than 20pc a year prior, according to Bage. The Argentinian government has also recently eliminated import duties on UAN and urea with fertilizers being a major cost of wheat production. Market participants are also anticipating an increase in Brazil's wheat imports from Argentina due to the recent flood in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's largest wheat producer. Participants expectations are for Brazil to plant less wheat due to the effects of the floods. By Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil to import rice due to southern floods
Brazil to import rice due to southern floods
Sao Paulo, 10 May (Argus) — Brazil's federal government signed a provisional measure that authorizes national supply company Conab to import up to 1mn metric tonnes of rice, following floods in the country's main rice producing state of Rio Grande do Sul. The measure aims to replenish public stocks, while avoiding price speculation and maintaining the grain's price levels in the domestic market, amid the current logistical difficulties for supply, according to Brazil's agriculture minister Carlos Favaro. Conab will hold public auctions and the acquired volumes will be sent to small retailers in metropolitan regions. "It is important to highlight that we will not import everything at once to not compete with our local production," Conab's president Edegar Pretto said. "We must protect our farmers, but remain on alert for prices to not become too high for consumers." Rio Grande do Sul's 2023-24 rice crop expected to account for almost 70pc of national output during the cycle. Alongside crop damage caused by the heavy rainfall, the floods are hampering the product's transportation. The rice purchases are one of many government measures being taken to address the historic floods. The country has also unlocked relief spending and launched a R50.9bn ($9.9bn) program to aid victims . Development bank Bndes will also suspend the debts of companies and farmers hurt by the extreme weather. The floods in the state have left at least 113 dead, 146 people missing and more than 165,000 people displaced, according to the civil defense. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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