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Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

London, 5 July (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have agreed to further speed up their plan to increase crude production, the Opec secretariat said on Saturday. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will raise their collective crude production target by 548,000 b/d in August, relative to July. This compares with previous month-on-month hikes of 411,000 b/d for May, June and July. This pace is also four times faster than the eight's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. The decision means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just five months. Should the eight opt for another 548,000 b/d increase for September, they will have fully unwound the cuts 12 months earlier than planned. That would shift focus to a second layer of voluntary cuts totalling 1.66mn b/d that is being implemented by the same eight producers plus Gabon, which are scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. The move comes against a backdrop of continued economic uncertainty, largely driven by US trade policy and a rise in geopolitical risk due to the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war. Supply fears linked to the conflict helped push front month Brent futures to above $81/bl on 23 June, although prices have since fallen back to about $68/bl – below where many producers prefer. But the eight countries once again cited "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as the basis for their decision. They also reiterated, as in previous months, that the "increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." One delegate told Argus that they agreed with the decision given the current strength in refining margins, but also that there may not be the same opportunity to return some of these barrels later in the year. This appears to be a reference both to the seasonal uptick in demand with the summer in the northern hemisphere, and to projections of weaker oil demand in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. Another delegate told Argus that there were no diverging views to the decision taken today, compared to the previous meeting when two member countries pushed to pause the monthly hikes. The actual increases in Opec+ production may fall short of the headline figure, given that some members are already producing above their targets and almost all of the eight have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. The group noted that the faster pace would help facilitate this compensation. The group is scheduled to meet again on 3 August to decide on September production levels. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.