Coal

Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.

In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.

In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.

Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.