Premium iron ore lump demand takes a hit in China

Market: Metals
22/02/19

Seaborne lump prices have fallen sharply after hitting a peak in late January, as steel mills have stepped up purchases of non-premium medium-grade and low-grade lump cargoes and pellet as direct-charge feedstock for their blast furnaces.

The Argus 62pc lump assessment was at a 38.10¢/dmt unit (dmtu) premium to the Argus ICX 62pc fines index on 22 January, the second-widest premium since Argus started lump assessments in 2014. The lump premium has since fallen by over 12pc to 33.4¢/dmtu on 22 February.

Paper markets have been active for lump this week with traders expecting a further downside to lump premiums. Volume picked up with trading firms selling March and April lump premium futures on the SGX exchange. The bid-offer spread widened today for the March lump premium swap on SGX with an offer at a 34¢/dmtu premium to the 62pc index and a bid at 32¢/dmtu. A deal was done earlier this week at 34¢/dmtu on the exchange, said a Singapore-based iron ore broker. April was priced at 31.5¢/dmtu, May at 29.75¢/dmtu and June at 27¢/dmtu.

A build-up of around 700,000t of Newman blend lump stocks in Tangshan pressured prices in portside markets. Buyers are more interested in buying lower priced lump cargoes such as Roy Hill lump and Fortescue lump as low-profit margins have made mills focus more on saving costs at the cost of sacrificing some productivity.

Lump demand typically peaks in winter and then slides as warmer weather leads to more domestic pellet feed concentrate entering the market as iron ore mines reopen from the winter shutdowns. Sintering restrictions to control emissions are also less strict as the weather warms, as fuel burning for winter heating slows reducing smog in cities, which allows mills to use more fines in the furnace burden.

But Brazilian mining firm Vale's tailings dam accident on 25 January has made a dent in iron ore supplies, including pellet, which could support direct-charge material prices over the next few months. Some mainstream Australian lump cargoes could be diverted away from China in the short term that will support prices.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update 2

Updates with recast outlook of results in paragraph 4 Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared poised to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump his best opportunity to enact his agenda since 2018. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update

07/11/24

News

07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point: Update

Updates with Powell's comments from press conference after meeting. Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers. Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters after the Fed's decision that he would not resign before his term ends in 2026 if asked to do so by Trump. He said the president did not have the power to fire or demote Fed chairmen. Trump, during his first term, nominated Powell to his position as Fed chair and he took office in February 2018, according to the Federal Reserve board's website. President Joe Biden reappointed him and he was sworn in in May 2022 for a second four-year term. Powell declined to discuss the incoming Trump administration's policies or "anything directly or indirectly" related to the election during the press conference. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, 2nd cut this year

07/11/24

News

07/11/24

US Fed cuts rate by quarter point, 2nd cut this year

Houston, 7 November (Argus) — The US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points today, its second cut since 2020, as it said inflation has "made progress" towards its 2pc target. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate to 4.50-4.75pc from the prior range of 4.75-5pc. This followed a half-point cut made in mid-September, the first cut since 2020. The Fed has been cutting its target rate from two-decade highs as inflation, which peaked at 9.1pc in mid-2022, has come down to near the Fed's 2pc target. "The Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" in considering additional adjustments to the target rate, the FOMC said in its statement after the two-day meeting. "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated," it said, adding that the unemployment rate "has moved up but remains low." The rate cut comes two days after Republican Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve during his first term in office from 2017-2021, was elected president. With vote counting ongoing, the Republicans appeared set to win both houses of Congress, giving Trump virtually unrestrained powers. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US W mining essential after Trump victory: ITIA

07/11/24

News

07/11/24

US W mining essential after Trump victory: ITIA

London, 7 November (Argus) — The rise of protectionism and prospects of increasing tariffs between the US and China prompted discussions about the need to mine tungsten domestically in the US during the International Tungsten Industry Association (ITIA) conference in Barcelona this week. "The development of domestic tungsten production in North America is critical," a US tungsten consumer told Argus . The hard metal is gaining attention from the Department of Defence (DoD) owing to its applications within defence industries and potential future use in nuclear fusion. The lack of domestic tungsten is considered a significant risk to US national security. The US introduced a 25pc tariff on imported Chinese tungsten-related products effective from 1 August 2024. Furthermore, imports of tungsten-mined ore from China and Russia for DoD procurement will be banned from 2027. The DoD is providing an increasing number of grants for companies to establish domestic manufacturing. It is doing so through programmes such as the Defence Production Act Investments (DPAI), which, since the beginning of the fiscal year 2024, issued 55 awards totalling $555mn. "Many parties want us to move this project forward as quickly as we can," said Oliver Friesen, executive director of junior miner Guardian Metal, which is developing the largest tungsten deposit in the US, Nevada. "If we were to start production today, the tungsten concentrate from (our project) Pilot Mountain would represent the only primary domestic production in the US," Friesen said. Guardian Metal anticipates it can source 20pc of US tungsten consumption within three years. This funding initiative for domestic manufacturing has bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats, but it could accelerate with Donald Trump in the White House. The president-elect proposed tariffs of up to 20pc on all foreign goods and 60pc tariffs on all imports from China on the campaign trail. China accounts for more than 80pc of global tungsten production. One conference attendee told Argus he anticipates the tariffs to be a reality and not mere rhetoric. Any measures could provoke a retaliatory response from China, which has already imposed export controls on dual-use materials such as antimony, gallium and germanium. Despite this, some traders express scepticism about the need for the US to produce its tungsten, as consumers are sourcing material from "friendly jurisdictions" and political allies such as Portugal and Spain, and have plans to buy from South Korea. Additionally, the demand for virgin material may decrease, given the increasing viability of recycling, suggesting that less material may be necessary. However, amid regional shifts, one participant emphasised, "If the US becomes isolated, the material needs to be produced domestically." By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

EU minor metal markets await US reaction to Trump win

07/11/24

News

07/11/24

EU minor metal markets await US reaction to Trump win

London, 7 November (Argus) — Europe's minor metal markets have been slow to react to Donald Trump's re-election as US president, and any price movement in response is pending a reaction from US consumers and further details of Trump's tariff plans. The biggest point of interest for European market participants is the potential impact of Trump's tariff plans and whether they would apply to critical minerals. Trump in the past has said his administration would apply tariffs upwards of 60pc on all US imports from China and a 20pc tariff on imports from the rest of the world to protect American manufacturing. But this also runs the risk of driving up inflation. Minor metals trading firms are hopeful that exceptions will be made for critical minerals and that Trump's plans could be watered down and take some time to implement. "Knowing Trump, there will be a lot of negotiating and country blackmailing before the final list is established. I would also expect a lot of exceptions for critical metals that are needed for aerospace, military, space and other high-tech industries," a minor metals trading company told Argus this week. "He certainly announced increased tariffs for several products of Chinese origin, but it could take months for any plan to actually be implemented," another market participant said, noting that they would take a more watchful approach rather than follow any knee-jerk reactions from the market. In addition to higher prices for metals imported from China, the other major risk factor associated with a more intensified US protectionist policy is that China will ramp up retaliatory measures in the form of export restrictions on metals for which it holds a dominant supply position. China has instituted export controls on gallium, germanium and antimony since the middle of last year, contributing to a dramatic surge in import prices for the latter two metals in the rest of the world. Supply of tungsten, a critical metal for the mining and aerospace industry, is also dominated by China, and it is widely viewed as the next most likely candidate for export controls. If geopolitical tensions escalate, tungsten supply chains may attempt to relocate to countries that have better relationships with the US. "Countries such as Thailand and South Korea are going to get real busy," a US tungsten recycling company told Argus . Meanwhile, the new US administration could benefit sectors that consume tungsten carbide, including energy and mining. "We will probably see more stability in mining projects in the US and a fast-tracking of permits for strategic metals," a supplier said. Faster permits could also boost the domestic production of antimony in North America, even though most products are still in the early stages of development. Despite hopes that the new US administration could make some tariff exceptions for critical minerals, many such minerals are already subject to import tariffs in the US. On 27 September, president Joe Biden's administration implemented 25pc tariffs on some chromium, cobalt, indium, tantalum and tungsten products imported to the US from China, despite strong opposition from stakeholders across the markets. All five of these metals were included in the US Secretary of the Interior's 2022 critical minerals list. Furthermore, Trump previous administration imposed tariffs on 5,745 items in 2018, including but not limited to, battery metals such as nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese, as well as key electronics and aerospace metals such as gallium, germanium, bismuth and certain tungsten products. Trump did make exceptions for antimony and rare earths at the time, which he removed from its initial tariff list of more than 6,000 items. Many of these tariffs started out at 10pc in September 2018 but rose to 25pc by May 2019, with mixed impacts. The most recent wave of tariffs from the Biden administration prompted an uptick in demand from US consumers and trading companies between the announcement of the tariffs and their implementation. In the first half of this year, Chinese exports of chromium to the US surged to 6,221t, up by 417pc from the same period a year earlier, as exporters rushed to get material on the water before the tariffs came into force and US chromium buyers sought to build stocks. Likewise, US demand drove up exports of Chinese unwrought tantalum to 162t in January-August, more than doubling from 63t a year earlier, customs data show. The US is highly dependent on unwrought tantalum metal imported from China, with China's supplies accounting for more than half of its total imports in recent years. But in the days immediately following Trump's win, US demand has remained steady. "I expect that only the people who are the most risk-prone or certain about the duties will want to stockpile this early," a trading firm said. By Sian Morris and Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more