News
15/05/25
Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA
Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV)
and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy
watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales
growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over
950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV
battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand
is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated
policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies ,
with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the
majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in
China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand
has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with
the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the
next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future
investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It
will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing
primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw
material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling
market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled
lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic
battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler
said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive
battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc
in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report.
South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery
manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese
manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery
manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost
double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise.
Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double
the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are
realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity
weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises
Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV
battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold
in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said
the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment
manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers'
market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced
by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more
competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy
Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP
batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese
battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded
by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from
20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with
Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes
through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India
markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing
50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho
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