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Energy bust threatens farmer earnings

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Fertilizers
  • 30/03/20

Debt-laden farmers face a collapsing energy market that threatens to stunt corn demand and overall revenue after weathering last season's historic flooding and a trade war.

Plunging oil prices and waning gasoline demand during the last two weeks have further crunched ethanol production margins, forcing many manufacturers to idle operations or curtail production during the last two weeks — eroding near-term corn demand.

About 20pc of ethanol plants in the US have idled and another 40-50 facilities curbed output, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

Between 400mn-500mn bushels of corn may not be consumed if the cuts in ethanol production stretch through May, according to INTL FCStone risk management consultant Jake Moline, amounting to $1.52bn-1.9bn in lost revenue based on the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) average farm price in March.

Farmers will likely re-evaluate crop mixes for this season when faced with potential revenue losses of this magnitude but this is unlikely to be reflected in the USDA's acreage forecast tomorrow, Moline added.

"If you are unsure if that ethanol plant will be running, you are then scratching your head whether or not you are going to plant corn," Moline said.

The US ethanol industry consumes about 38-40pc of domestic corn production, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), and has supported the US as a global leader in corn output since 2007.

The massive expansion of biofuel production in the US — kickstarted by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 — bolstered farmer earnings and fueled growth in the agricultural sector as the nation slipped into the Great Recession.

The timing of the recession "came in during a period right when farm income was taking off, and then it kept going to about 2013," USDA senior economist Carrie Litkowski said.

But as the energy sector shielded the nation's corn sector from a recession 10-12 years ago, it is primed to capsize at-risk farmers still recovering from last season's flooding and the now de-escalating trade war with China.

Farmer debt this year is forecast to balloon to an all-time high of $425.3bn, according to the USDA, while bankruptcy cases continue to amass in the US heartland.

Chapter 12 filings — a form of reorganization specifically for farmers — rose to a new high at 580 cases during the 2019 government fiscal year, which runs from October to September, according to US federal courts data.

President Donald Trump has aimed to keep farmers afloat through subsidies. The Trump administration last year approved the highest amount of federal aid since 2005 after severe rains caused flooding and delayed planting, while the trade war with China severed a major, long-established destination market for soybean growers.

Farmers this year are set to receive another $23.5bn of direct federal assistance after Trump on 27 March signed the massive $2 trillion stimulus package geared to provide economic relief to various industries from the coronavirus disruption.

"We are going to keep our small businesses strong and our big businesses strong," Trump said during the signing ceremony. "And that is keeping our country strong and our jobs strong."


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30/08/24

South Korea to require use of SAF for flights from 2027

South Korea to require use of SAF for flights from 2027

Singapore, 30 August (Argus) — South Korea said it plans to require all international flights departing from its airports to use a mix of 1pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from 2027. This comes as more countries are adopting SAF mandates in accordance with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Singapore earlier this year announced a 1pc SAF blending mandate from 2026 , with plans to increase to 3-5pc by 2030, subject to global developments and wider SAF availability and adoption. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announced the 'SAF Expansion Strategy' on 30 August, which includes a target for South Korea to capture 30pc of the global blended SAF export market. While not explicitly stated in the statement, some South Korean refineries expect co-processed SAF to be allowed to meet the country's mandate, sources said. This is important as the country already produces small quantities of SAF via co-processing at existing refining facilities, with three of South Korea's four domestic refineries planning to produce SAF through co-processing by the end of this year . Key strategies The ministries outlined three key strategies to achieve the SAF consumption target — gradual expansion of domestic SAF demand, ensuring a stable domestic supply capacity, and establishing a SAF-friendly legal and institutional environment. Airlines can already refuel with SAF at Korean airports, making South Korea the 20th country to do so as part of their plan to increase domestic SAF demand. The country had tested six flights using 2-4pc imported blended SAF between South Korea and Los Angeles since August 2023. An incentive system is being developed to encourage public and private adoption of SAF, with benefits such as preferential allocation of transport rights, reduced airport facility usage fees and the introduction of airline carbon mileage system for passengers and other benefits. A mid- to long-term roadmap for the gradual expansion of domestic SAF demand will be prepared in early 2025, the ministries said. The country's strategy to secure stable domestic supply capabilities includes considering investment support for domestic SAF production such as tax credits. South Korea's four domestic refineries already plan to invest 4 trillion won ($3bn) in renewable fuels, including SAF by 2030, the ministries said. The government estimates a Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) SAF plant with a production capacity of up to 250,000 t/yr will require an investment of approximately W1 trillion. The supply-side strategy also aims to ease regulations on waste recycling to increase the availability of domestic feedstocks for SAF production. Another strategy is to diversify feedstock and SAF production technology options, with pre-testing expected later this year. The government plans to explore alternative feedstock like microalgae and production pathways such as e-SAF, with a view to developing supply chains. South Korea plans to establish a national standard, certification and testing method for SAF with preparation planned for December 2024. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24


30/08/24
News
30/08/24

Australia's Qantas records higher fuel costs in 2023-24

Singapore, 30 August (Argus) — Australian airline Qantas Airways recorded a higher fuel bill in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June, as more flights, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expenses and carbon offset programmes weighed on costs. Qantas saw its fuel costs rise by 17pc from a year earlier to A$5.32bn ($3.62bn) in 2023-24, according to the company's full-year financial results released on 29 August. The airline group's passenger carrying capacity was up by 21pc on the previous year, with growth in domestic and international capaicty. This saw the group's overall fuel consumption grow to 29mn bl (79,000 b/d), or 18pc up on the previous year. Qantas expects fuel costs in the first half of 2024-25 to remain stable from a year earlier at about A$2.7bn, including hedging and gross carbon costs, with the group forecasting to consume 15.6mn bl of fuel, including SAF. Qantas forecasts domestic group capacity to rise to 104pc of pre-Covid 19 pandemic capacity in the first half of 2024-25. Its international capacity guidance, excluding Jetstar Asia, is expected to rise by about 16pc from the previous year to achieve 102pc of pre-Covid levels in the first half. The group's passenger carrying capacity, measured by available seat kilometres (ASKs), was up on a year earlier by 21pc to 141mn ASK by 2023-24, although this was still about 93pc of pre-Covid levels. Qantas has agreements to offtake SAF, renewing its agreement to buy SAF for flights out of London Heathrow and doubling the size of its corporate customer SAF programme in 2023-24. But the group saw its 2023-24 profit fall, with underlying profit before tax down by 16pc on the previous year to A$2.08bn. By Cara Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol


30/08/24
News
30/08/24

India lifts curbs on use of sugarcane juice for ethanol

Mumbai, 30 August (Argus) — The Indian government is allowing sugar mills and distilleries to use sugarcane juice and sugar syrup to produce ethanol during the November 2024-October 2025 supply year. The government in December last year halted the use of sugarcane juice and sugar syrup for ethanol production in the 2023-24 supply year, as insufficient rainfall in key growing regions led to a surge in domestic sugar prices and a shortage of the sweetener. Sugar mills and distilleries can also produce ethanol from B-heavy and C-heavy molasses. The food ministry's order added that it will, in co-ordination with the oil ministry, periodically review the diversion of sugar to ethanol production in relation to the production of sugar in the country to ensure the availability of sugar for domestic consumption throughout the year. The government also allowed the Food Corporation of India to sell rice to distilleries for ethanol production during August-October but capped the limit at 2.3mn t of rice. India had suspended supplies of excess rice to distilleries for ethanol production in July 2023 because of food availability and concerns about rising prices. Distilleries will be allowed to load rice during August-October subject to allocation of ethanol to the distilleries by oil marketing companies, the government order said. Of the total ethanol used for blending in gasoline in India, around 61pc comes from B-heavy molasses, 20pc from sugar syrup, 11pc from surplus rice, 6pc from damaged food grains and maize and 2pc from C-heavy molasses. India has a set a goal to increase ethanol blending in gasoline to 20pc by 2025, as part of efforts to reduce its dependence on crude imports. Ethanol blending in gasoline was 13.3pc during November 2023-July 2024 and 15.8pc during July 2024, oil ministry data show. Oil marketing companies buy ethanol from ethanol producers like sugar mills and distilleries to blend with gasoline. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Ethiopia’s EABC seeks DAP in tender


29/08/24
News
29/08/24

Ethiopia’s EABC seeks DAP in tender

London, 29 August (Argus) — Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) has likely issued a tender to buy 360,000t of DAP, closing on 9 September. Sources expect EABC to issue further tenders to bring the total volume of phosphate-containing fertilizers sought to 800,000-1.36mn t for delivery in 2024-25. But it is uncertain if additional tenders will also be for DAP or for NPS/NPSB. Typically, the corporation seeks large amounts of NPS and NPSB in its annual large-scale tender, and Moroccan major fertilizer producer OCP is awarded the full volume. In its 2023 tender — issued in August — EABC requested a little over 1.02mn t of NPSB and 332,300t of NPS, as well as 980,000t of urea. But reports emerged earlier this week that EABC was preparing to seek DAP instead. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Qatar's Muntajat raises September sulphur price


29/08/24
News
29/08/24

Qatar's Muntajat raises September sulphur price

London, 29 August (Argus) — Qatar's state-owned sulphur producer and marketer Muntajat/Qatar Energy has raised the Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) for September to $125/t fob Ras Laffan/Mesaieed. This is up by $19/t on its August QSP set at $106/t fob after spot prices rose. The latest spot tenders from Qatar and Kuwait have attracted several bids at $120s/t fob from trading firms. This follows a substantial rise of $25/t from July to August, when the latest round of price increases in the spot market started to filter through, as phosphate fertilizer prices firmed and some supply curbs limited output from the usual producers. The latest adjustment for September implies delivered pricing to China of $151-157/t cfr at current freight rates, which were last assessed on 22 August at $26-28/t to south China and at $30-32/t to Chinese river ports for a shipment of 30,000-35,000t. But with China cfr assessments at $134-139/t cfr on 22 August, delivered prices were below the implied range in the previous round of business, as buyers opted to wait and see what was the outlook for fertilizer exports prior to booking more raw material imports. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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