Road fuels
Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
Latest road fuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global road fuels industry.
Viewpoint: Saudi condensate to lead supply rise in 2026
Viewpoint: Saudi condensate to lead supply rise in 2026
Singapore, 15 December (Argus) — The Asian condensate market is bracing for the introduction of a new grade from Saudi Arabia in 2026, which may cause significant pricing disruptions if demand cannot keep pace with the rise in supplies. Condensate loadings from state-controlled Saudi Aramco's new Jafurah natural gas project should start in the first quarter of 2026 , in cargo sizes of 500,000 bl, traders said. Some expect 3-4 spot cargoes a month to be made available. Jafurah condensate, with an API gravity of 49.75° and sulphur content of 0.16pc, appears to be similar in quality to Australian Ichthys and Qatari condensates, which are rich in naphtha and middle distillates. It may also compete with lighter crudes like US light sweet WTL. Jafurah's ramp-up speed will be a critical factor for 2026, and some traders think condensate prices will have to be gradually adjusted lower when the new supply comes. Buyers may initially be hesitant to commit to Jafurah condensate given its quality is untested, so its impact on similar-quality grades may not be immediate. The bulk of condensate produced in Asia-Pacific and the Mideast Gulf goes to the UAE, South Korea, Singapore and China, mostly to splitters. Any potential price decline next year resulting from more supply may be capped by expectations of condensate offers from Qatar's North Field East (NFE) expansion project emerging only towards the end of 2026, with its effects not anticipated to be felt until 2027. This is perhaps a strategic move aimed at preventing a flood of supply in 2026 that would drive down prices even more, a Singapore trader said. The project is supposed to start up in mid-2026 . State-owned QatarEnergy (QE) has, in the meantime, struck several long-term supply deals with the UAE's Enoc , Japan's Mitsui and a Singapore unit of Shell . "[They have] covered some of their [supply] lengths already, but [there is] still a lot more," a trader said. QE typically sells its Qatari Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC) and Deodorized Field Condensate (DFC) — also produced at the North Field — via regular tenders, and traders expect condensate from the expansion project to be of similar quality to these. Qatar is the world's third-largest condensate producer, behind Russia and the US, according to IEA figures, and QE's LSC and DFC account for a quarter of the world's internationally traded condensate. These volumes were nearly 850,000 b/d last year, data from oil analytics firm Vortexa show. Australia is also a major condensate supplier, shipping about 180,000 b/d last year, mainly to Asian buyers. Demand outlets One potential source of demand for these new condensates is China, given its need for naphtha as a feedstock for its expanded petrochemical capacities, while middle distillates produced from splitting the condensates can be sold off, traders said. Recent US sanctions on Russia — a major global exporter of naphtha — have made buyers, including China, reluctant to take Russian naphtha . China imported around 77,000 b/d of condensate last year, Vortexa data show. Iranian sour South Pars condensate accounted for close to 50pc of that, which was probably discounted because of Iranian sanctions, so any replacement supplies would have to be priced competitively for China to consider switching. Singapore's 70,000 b/d Bukom splitter could be another source of condensate demand once it is properly up and running , traders said, adding to the 237,000 b/d Bukom refinery's purchases of grades like Qatari condensate. Refiners often view heavy condensates as an alternative to ultra-light crude feedstock and could turn to such supplies if they are priced at a level that makes sense for them economically compared to regular crude grades. In the past, firm prices for light sour crudes like Abu Dhabi Murban had prompted some refiners to turn to Qatari condensates. Otherwise, Aramco especially may be banking on replacement demand from buyers in South Korea, the UAE and Singapore, hoping to switch some of their purchases away from Qatari and Ichthys condensates, as well as lighter crudes, traders said. If there is insufficient demand for the additional supplies, some condensates can even be blended with crude to create lighter grades of crude, a Singapore trader said, optimistic that the market will somehow find a way to absorb these extra supplies over the next few years. By Reena Nathan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep
N Zealand's gas output falls for 8th quarter in Jul-Sep
Sydney, 11 December (Argus) — New Zealand's July-September gas production fell on the year for the eighth consecutive quarter, diverging from industrial gas demand, while gasoline imports rose and crude production dropped, data from the country's business, innovation and employment ministry (MBIE) show. Net gas production fell by 16pc on the year to 25.5PJ (681mn m³) in July-September, down from 30.2PJ a year earlier, data from the MBIE's New Zealand Energy Quarterly show. The country's gas stocks also fell by 2.4PJ over the same period, indicating a drawdown of inventories. New Zealand's conservative government also launched a procurement process for an LNG import terminal in October. Industrial users consumed 10.3PJ of gas over the quarter, up by 14pc on the year, largely because of the restart of Canadian methanol producer Methanex's 1.72mn t/yr Motunui plant. Methanex idled its plant in August–October 2024 and May–early July 2025 to support gas-fired power generation. The site has operated normally since then. New Zealand's gas-fired electricity generation fell in July-September. Utilities burned 7PJ over the quarter, down from 9.2PJ a year earlier, because of strong renewable generation. The country's hydroelectric and geothermal generation rose by 23pc and 6.5pc on the year, respectively. New Zealand's gasoline imports rose by 7.4pc on the year in July-September (see table). New Zealand also restarted oil and gas exploration in September , and extended permits for the 5,600 b/d Maari oil field for a decade in August. By Avinash Govind New Zealand energy production and imports b/d Jul-Sep '25 Apr-Jun '25 Jul-Sep '24 q-o-q ± % y-o-y ± % Gasoline imports 49,972 50,531 46,516 -1.1 7.4 Diesel imports 65,093 67,306 61,411 -3.3 6 Jet fuel imports 28,406 28,923 28,884 -1.8 -1.7 Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) 15,056 13,954 15,687 7.9 -4 Gas production (PJ) 26 26 30 -0.9 -16 Source: New Zealand's Ministry of Business, Innnovation and Employement Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German cabinet passes EU RED III
German cabinet passes EU RED III
Hamburg, 10 December (Argus) — The German cabinet on 10 December approved legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into national law. This will adjust the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and abolish double counting of advanced fuels from 2026. But it is unlikely to pass remaining legislative processes in time for the EU's 1 January deadline. The bill passed by the cabinet largely follows a draft dated 29 October that was leaked in November. The overall quota level will rise to 59pc by 2040. Aviation and marine fuels are exempt from the quota obligation. The law will end the eligibility of palm oil products, most notably palm oil mill effluent (Pome), for compliance towards the GHG quota. This exclusion, and a requirement for fuel producers to allow on-site audits, will not come into effect until 2027, leaving 2026 as a transitional year. The end of double counting for advanced biofuels removes a key point of market uncertainty. Under current rules, advanced biofuels can be counted as twice their energy value towards the GHG quota, provided the minimum sub-mandate for advanced fuels has been met. But the change to end double counting will apply to the entire compliance year and all subsequent years, meaning it will be retroactive to 1 January. The only exception is for fuels supplied prior to 1 January 2026. The law will enter into force on the second day after publication in the Federal Law Gazette, with selected sections taking effect a day earlier for procedural reasons. Before that can happen, the bill must be submitted to the Germany's lower and upper parliaments for debate. The lower house's approval is not required, and the upper house could initiate changes. The bill can only be submitted to the Federal President for his signature once the upper house has given approval. This process is likely to conclude in the first quarter of 2026. Changes to sub-quotas, RFNBOs, biomethane The sub-mandate for advanced biofuels, made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX of RED III, will rise to 9pc by 2040. The mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) — such as e-fuels and green hydrogen — is higher will rise to 2.5pc of an obligated company's energy mix in 2034, and then to 8pc in 2040. The penalty for non-compliance is €120/GJ. Imported biomethane can be counted towards the GHG quota, provided it meets certain conditions, such as a connection to the EU gas grid. The baseline emissions value is 94kg CO2e/GJ, aligned with the rest of the EU. The registration deadline with the main customs office is 1 June. The market for GHG certificates reacted immediately. Other certificates for 2025 are trading around €20/t CO2e higher than the previous day, and prices for 2026 certificates are rising. Prices for 2025 certificates are rising, although they are unaffected by the change. They are seen as a substitute for 2027 certificates because excess 2025 compliance will be carried over. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) could now play a central role in meeting the GHG quota, which can influence certificate prices. Demand for advanced HVO could increase significantly, as it can be counted without limit towards the GHG quota as a blending component and as a pure fuel and can be used in most of the existing diesel vehicle fleet. The end of double counting could increase demand for non-advanced biodiesel grades, such as rapeseed-based RME and used cooking oil-based Ucome. Although the eligibility of these is capped to a certain percentage of a company's energy mix, this limit has not always been fully utilised in the past. by Max Steinhau and Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high
Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high
London, 4 December (Argus) — Sharp swings in European diesel prices in November were driven in part by entities with no physical exposure, as money managers briefly held their largest long positions in Ice gasoil futures in nearly four years. Funds have looked to gasoil futures because of increasing volatility in the contract when compared with Ice Brent crude futures, according to a senior participant in oil paper markets. The daily change in the value of front-month Ice gasoil has averaged 1.66pc so far this year, compared with 1.32pc for front-month Ice Brent. Money managers — hedge funds and pensions funds, along with other entities managing on behalf of clients — have increased their long positions in Ice gasoil futures as the year has progressed. This reached a 45-month high of 153,689 lots in the week to 18 November, according to Ice's Commitment of Traders report. Ice gasoil futures hit $777.50/t on 18 November, the third-highest of the year. Money managers trimmed 10pc of that position the following week, to 137,971 as of 25 November. Ice futures fell below $700/t on that date, pressured by reported progress on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. This led market participants to consider what peace would mean for diesel markets: a slow down in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and, in the longer term, a possible European return to importing Russian diesel. Funds' long position is still almost double the 74,015 held at the start of 2025, and the average 75,398 held in 2024. Long and the short of it Before peace talks started to progress, money managers' net long positions were the highest in more than three-and-a-half years. An analyst said funds have probably taken an overall position of being long diesel cracks — taking long positions in gasoil futures and short ones in Brent. Permanent cuts to refining capacity in Europe, as well as extensive temporary outages this year, have contributed to a disconnect between gasoil and Brent price movements. As gasoil prices rise, refiners can hit capacity limits, which has capped their crude buying and kept Brent steadier. Managed money held the biggest short position in Brent since at least 2015 on 21 October at 190,639 lots. This has fallen since, but did rebound to 163,975 on 25 November, the eighth shortest since 2015. Funds' involvement in futures has further increased volatility, as they tend to buy and sell futures more quickly than entities with physical exposure. That volatility increases potential losses as well as potential gains. Some funds may have made very large losses this year because of unexpected swings, the paper market participant said. European diesel often prices on a exchange-of-futures-for-physical (EFP) basis, using Ice gasoil futures, meaning the futures price can be an influence on the physical price. European physical diesel cargoes priced at a $45.64/bl premium against North Sea Dated on 19 November, the highest in nearly three years. The following week, when money managers were cutting their long positions, the physical diesel premium fell to $27.15/bl. Ice gasoil futures is a physically-delivered contract, so any price dislocation is generally soon closed as traders look to work an arbitrage between the futures and physical. By Josh Michalowski and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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