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Argus Americas Crude Summit 2018

2017 Agenda

Tuesday, January 17
13:00 Registration opens
14:00 - 17:00 Pre-conference Mexico’s Energy Reform
What you need to know about developing resources in Mexico
17:00 - 19:00 Welcome Reception
19:00 - 22:00
Gala Dinner
Guest speaker: Michael McFaul

Sponsored by ICE

Wednesday, January 18
07:30 Registration Opens
07:30 - 08:30 Delegate Breakfast

Sponsored by Intl FC Stone

08:30 - 08:45 Welcome and Opening Remarks
08:45 - 09:45 Opening Address: Global Politics and US Foreign Policy
Guest speaker: Secretary Leon Panetta
09:45 - 10:00 Break
10:00 - 11:15 Session 1: Politics and the Path to Re-balancing
  • A bull market in sight? How is this year different? Could the market over-correct? What have we learned from the last year of US crude exports and Iranian exports? How might US president-elect, Donald Trump, impact relations with the Middle East and China? What is the future of trade with Iran? How likely could the markets re-balance in 2017?
  • Navigating arbitrage opportunities: How are narrowing Brent/WTI spreads impacting global crude trading? What might the next year look like and how might that impact global trade flows? 
  • In balance or still re-balancing? What are the current inventories in Opec and non-Opec countries? Could we see supply disruptions? What countries are poised for greatest demand growth?

Dr. Edward L. Morse, Managing Director Global Head Commodities, Citi Research
Stephen Wolfe, Senior Oil Strategist, Trafigura Group
Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst, Energy Aspects

11:15 - 11:45 Break

Sponsored by Oiltanking North America

11:45 - 12:45 Session 2: Impact of Trump and Republican Congress on Domestic Energy and Climate Policy
President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promises and his cabinet appointees, together with a Republican-controlled Congress, portend a sharp break from years of Democratic policies. There is little question the incoming administration favors fossil fuels and is wary of President Barack Obama’s climate actions. In this session, we will examine the effect of this radically new direction on specific policies, programs and regulations, including:

  • Will transportation fuels be affected by changes in the renewable fuel standard (RFS) and the RINs markets? Will automobile efficiency standards (CAFE) be impacted? 
  • How will a Trump presidency affect permitting of pipelines such as Keystone XL and Dakota Access? How will it impact environmental review of energy infrastructure?
  • What would be the impact on the oil industry of the Republican proposal to impose a 20% border adjustment tax on imports and to exempt exports?
  • What would be the impact of reduced regulation of hydraulic fracturing?
  • What are the prospects for enhanced development of federal lands and waters?
  • Is the Clean Power Plan dead? Will the Paris climate agreement be scrapped?
Jacob Dweck, Partner, Sutherland Asbill & Brennan LLP
David Ivanovich
, Washington Bureau Chief, Argus

12:45 - 14:00 Lunch

Sponsored by Genesis Energy

14:00 - 15:00 Session 3: New Administration Impact on US Shale Survival
  • Cash flow for the upstream: Who will have access to capital and financing? What tax breaks and incentives might we see under the Trump administration? Who is renegotiating debt and what type of companies will survive?
  • Resiliency of US shale: How do US shale break-evens compare to international E&P break-evens? How are operators improving efficiency? What is the well completion, rig counts and cost containment measures that are making shale survive this year? How will a Republican Congress impact the balance sheets of US oil companies?
Mile Milisavljevic, Principal, US Deals Strategy Energy Sector Leader, PwC
Bernadette Johnson, Managing Director, Ponderosa Advisors
15:00 - 15:30 Fireside Chat: Financial Structure of the Midstream
  • What is the future of MLPs? Volumes are down and prices are not covering pipeline transportation costs. How are MLPs planning for growth moving forward? What impact might the Trump administration have on the MLP tax structure?
Brian Freed, Senior Vice President of Western US Commercial Operations, Crestwood Equity Partners LP
15:30 - 16:00 Break

Sponsored by Genscape

16:00 - 17:30 Session 4: Future of Heavy Crude-Canadian and Latin American Barrels
  • Future of Canadian oil sands: What is the supply outlook from Western Canada? What will future Canadian grades look like and how do they compare with other heavy grades in the US Gulf Coast? What could future pipeline access mean for Canadian crude?
  • Spotlight on Mexico: What are the drivers behind Mexico's energy reform? What are the challenges with the reform and what are the results that industry and government are hoping for? Who is investing in developing the Mexican upstream?
  • Venezuela and its post-Chavez energy relationships: What is the state of PdV’s production capacity? How are the nationalized heavy bitumen projects working? How quickly could the whole crude complex be revived by access to foreign capital and technology (possibly under a new government)? What are the implications of Venezuela’s falling production, government instability and supply commitments to China?
  • Brazil-Can faith be restored at Petrobras? What is the vision and mission going forward? Will Petrobras look to expand globally or nationally? 
Naomi Esfahani, Ph.D. Market Analysis & Research, Suncor Energy Marketing Inc.
Dr. Hector Moreira Rodriguez, Commisioner, Comision Nacional de Hidrocarburos
Francisco J. Monaldi, Ph.D., Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy & Lecturer in Energy Economics, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Frank McGann, Lead Equities Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
17:30 - 19:00 Reception
Thursday, January 19
07:30 Registration Opens
07:30 - 08:30 Delegate Breakfast Specialty Session: Managing Risk

  • Managing oil market risk in an uncertain world
  • Using big data to explore operational and price risk
Brian Jenisch, Managing Director, Energy Risk Management, Cargill
Stan Brownell, Director, Sapient Global Markets
08:30 - 08:45 Opening Remarks
08:45 - 09:30 Keynote: The Globalization of U.S. Hydrocarbons
  • Speaker: Jim Teague, Chief Executive Officer, Enterprise Products Partners
09:30 - 09:45 Break
09:45 - 10:45

Session 5: Market Access-North America and Beyond
  • Pipeline projects-How does infrastructure work now? The Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) will bring Bakken crude to Patoka and Nederland. How much will be absorbed here and how much will be exported? How might that impact price at North Dakota? And what projects are evolving at St. James? Where are the bottlenecks? Could Capline reverse? How committed is a Trump administration to building out infrastructure? Will we see more infrastructure projects in the works? What is LOOP thinking about crude exports now? 
  • US exports and infrastructure: What ports are being built? What dredging is being done? What terminals are expanding up and down the Louisiana coast? What impact will Panama Canal expansion have on crude flows from the US Gulf coast to the US west coast? 
Andy Lipow, President, Lipow Oil Associates, LLC
Gary Morgan
, Director, Analyst Group, Clarksons Platou Shipping Services USA LLC
10:45 - 11:15 Break

Sponsored by CapSpire

11:15 - 12:45 Session 6: The Post-Boom US Refining Complex
  • Future of feedstock supply: How are refiners looking at traditional and alternate sources of feedstock supply? How are they re-configuring their plants for the future? What rules is the EPA considering to allow refiners to generate RINs? Could we see changes to the RFS and how will that impact refiners?
  • US refining-The new fight for margin: What is the competitive advantage of US refiners in the world today? Can margins be sustained? Are refiners looking to expand product exports into Mexico or could a potential end to the Nafta trade agreement stymie those plans?
  • Future automotive powertrains, driving habits and what they mean for US and global gasoline demand: This presentation will examine how regulations, changes in consumer behavior, vehicle costs and new technologies influence the demand for current and future fuels
Cynthia (CJ) Warner, Executive Vice President, Operations, Tesoro
Dan Gordon, Executive Vice President, Business Development and Strategy, Delek US Holdings
Robert R. Wimmer, Director Energy & Environmental Research, Product Regulatory Affairs, Toyota Motor North America

Moderator: Edward Arnold, Vice President Downstream, Argus Consulting Services

12:45 - 13:45 Lunch
13:45 - 14:15 Presentation: Gulf Coast Rising
The changing roles of global crude benchmarks

Speaker: Dan Massey, President, Argus 
14:15 - 15:00 Session 7: Signature Panel-Bracing for Change

Oil markets in the Americas face a wide range of new challenges in 2017 from transport to finance to a reshuffling of market power. The 2017 Argus Americas Crude Summit closes with a panel representing diverse disciplines within the market to discuss several pressing issues and what impact they might have on oil trading in 2017.

Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst, Energy Aspects
Andy Lipow, President, Lipow Oil Associates, LLC
Bernadtte Johnson,
Managing Director, Ponderosa Advisors

Moderator: Dan Massey, President, Argus

15:00 Main Conference Concludes
17:00 - 19:00 Carl McCain Winter Cocktail Reception
Complimentary for all conference delegates

*Program subject to change

Days to go!

Hilton Americas
1600 Lamar Street
Houston, Texas 77010

Hilton Americas

Argus Crude reports daily on the global crude oil markets, providing analysis and pricing for more than 80 different internationally-traded crude streams. It is the only way to access the exclusive Argus Sour Crude Index™ (ASCI™).

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