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Argus World Ammonia Outlook to 2030

An Argus Strategy Report

The newly launched Argus World Ammonia Outlook to 2030 considers the short, medium and long term changes facing the merchant ammonia market.

The changes are significant and in part due to the impact of the shale revolution in the US, as well as the new and sudden downward shift in oil pricing from $110 to $50 bl. Traded tonnage is expected to roughly plateau. This masks considerable adjustments in the underlying pattern of trade in the coming 5-10 years, including a sharp fall in US ammonia imports, which will be partially offset by growing volumes of ammonia imported into Morocco under OCP’s Jorf Phosphate Hub phosphate expansion programme. 

Drawing on the newly launched Argus Ammonia Cost and Margin Service, the report:

  • analyses costs, competitiveness and the prospects for new supply or withdrawal from the market
  • provides detailed analysis of the key market participants
  • gives a 15-year projection of country-by-country ammonia trade
  • assesses evolving regional balances and the consequent impact on pricing for the key fob (Yuzhnyy, Middle East, Caribbean) and cfr (Tampa) benchmarks


As one of our series of annual strategy reports, this document is aimed at those making long-term planning decisions, including investors.

View the complete list of Argus Strategy Reports

Ammonia Coverage

The Argus World Ammonia Outlook to 2030 is part of our wider ammonia coverage, which also includes:

Argus Ammonia - A market service, published weekly

Argus Monthly Ammonia Outlook - A market forecast service

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