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World Potash Outlook to 2030

An Argus Strategy Report

While long term growth for potash demand is assured by the world’s burgeoning population, the industry is adding far more to its supply capacity than can be absorbed by the market in the coming years. 

The Argus World Potash Outlook to 2030 analyses short, medium and long-term trends facing the market for potash fertilizers, MOP and SOP. The outlook provides an overview of the market drivers for potash demand and forecasts demand growth for the next 15 years. It presents an updated assessment of production capacities by plant around the world, and the current dynamics of international trade. Further to this analysis, price forecasts are provided to 2030 for the major fob benchmarks of MOP and SOP. The platform for our report is our supply and demand database as well as our long-term price forecasting model, which we also maintain to support single-client consulting assignments. 

Market background

The past 10 years have seen the potash industry face boom and bust on a scale unprecedented in its history. After a long period of stability, the commodities boom caught up with potash, and prices soared as high as $1,000/t. The boom years, which sent prices soaring, also encouraged a glut of new supply projects. Existing producers were keen to exploit the new high prices, and commissioned a series of capacity expansions. But the same high prices also enticed new entrants to the market, bringing a slew of new greenfield projects from major fertilizer producers and dozens of junior explorers promoting new potash deposits around the world.

Key features

  • Update of capacities and expansion plans by producer,  and outlook for supply and demand in commodity potash markets
  • Forecast of demand growth for fertilizer potash, and analysis of global trade flows in potash
  • Key benchmark price forecasts for commodity potash to 2030
  • Analysis of added value markets for potash including granular and soluble grades of KCl, as well as SOP, NOP, mixed K-Mg and compound fertilizers

Audience

As one of our series of strategy reports, this study is targeted at those making long-term planning decisions including investors.

View the complete list of Argus Strategy Reports

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