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US Maritime Commission calls for IMO NZF changes
US Maritime Commission calls for IMO NZF changes
New York, 11 November (Argus) — The US is calling for changes to the proposed net-zero framework (NZF) by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and is pushing for LNG and biofuels to be recognised as viable fuel pathways for shipping decarbonisation. The US will not support any net-zero fund within the IMO's proposed NZF, and will vote against the current proposal under consideration, US Maritime Commission president Laura DiBella said. Speaking at the IBIA Convention in New York, DiBella said the framework — which is scheduled for further consideration at the IMO's Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 85 meeting later this month — is not technology neutral and requires significant revisions. IMO member states should continue submitting amendments to the proposal, adding that some alternative approaches already submitted by member countries could be considered by the US delegation, DiBella said. DiBella also called for LNG, bio-LNG, ethanol and biodiesel to be recognised as viable pathways for shipping decarbonisation, arguing that these fuels currently offer the strongest prospects for availability, scalability and competitiveness. Alternatives such as ammonia and methanol lack sufficient scalability and should not be treated as the primary fuels for the maritime energy transition, she added. "The current net-zero framework seeks to move shipping away from oil in an artificial and anti-competitive manner," DiBella said. By Gabriel Tassi Lara Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec keeps oil demand outlook unchanged
Opec keeps oil demand outlook unchanged
London, 11 November (Argus) — Opec has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged after a series of downgrades this year, while making a further marginal cut to its outlook for Chinese consumption. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report , Opec forecasts global demand will grow by 180,000 b/d to 105.72mn b/d in 2026 and by 2.55mn b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027, both in line with its October assessment. Opec's 2026 demand growth projection is a fraction of the 1.4mn b/d it was forecasting before the US-Iran war began. Its outlook continues to assume that this year's weak growth will give way to a sharp rebound in 2027. The group now expects Chinese oil demand to fall by 70,000 b/d to 16.81mn b/d in 2026, a slightly steeper decline than it forecast last month. It continues to project a 470,000 b/d rebound in 2027. Chinese consumption fell by 110,000 b/d on the year to 17.25mn b/d in September, as lower diesel and gasoline use outweighed stronger demand for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, Opec said. Opec also kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts unchanged at 640,000 b/d for 2026 and 620,000 b/d for 2027. Output is forecast to average 54.84mn b/d this year and 55.45mn b/d next year. Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to lead growth this year, partly offset by an 860,000 b/d decline in Qatar. Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to be the main sources of growth in 2027. US liquids supply growth is forecast to slow from 500,000 b/d this year to just 30,000 b/d in 2027. Opec expects US crude and condensate production to fall by 110,000 b/d next year, but this is forecast to be more than offset by a 140,000 b/d increase in natural gas liquids output. Opec does not forecast Opec+ crude production, but publishes an average of estimates from secondary sources, including Argus. This shows Opec+ crude output, including Mexico and the UAE, rose by 2.04mn b/d on the month to 41.23mn b/d in October, driven largely by increases from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The UAE withdrew from Opec and Opec+ on 1 May this year, while Mexico is not bound by an Opec+ production quota. Opec also pointed to a sharp decline in global oil inventories, which it estimates fell by 537mn bl from a February peak to 8.043bn bl at the end of September. Non-OECD inventories accounted for 294mn bl of the decline and OECD strategic reserves for 218mn bl. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran war shows jet supply chain resilience is key: AEF
Iran war shows jet supply chain resilience is key: AEF
Singapore, 11 November (Argus) — Ongoing disruptions from the US-Iran war have demonstrated the importance of better communication among supply chain stakeholders and investing in more resilient aviation fuel supply chains, said panellists at the International Air Transport Association (IATA)'s Aviation Energy Forum (AEF) in Guangzhou on 10 November. The conflict created many supply chain challenges, including preventing go-to fuel suppliers from providing usual volumes, shipping challenges, and demand volatility that created financial exposure for the company, head of Shell Aviation Asia and Middle East Doris Tan said. "Some of the supply solutions we need moving forward will be different from what has worked in the past," added Reuben Reina, managing director of fuel management at US airline United Airlines. The Chicago, Illinois-based airline lifts jet fuel at 425 airports, totalling about 30mn gallons/d (714,000 b/d). This is a tremendous amount of volume exposure, and the firm is exposed to nearly two dozen different benchmarks globally, he said. To improve fuel supply chain resilience during this period, fuel storage company Vopak "identified hub locations where there are aggregations of fuel supplies from various traders and suppliers", commercial manager Stephen Hoh said. And the firm built newer terminals there with easily-modifiable or upgradeable tankage infrastructure between the different fuel types in storage, he added. Vopak quickly adapted by converting certain tanks to store jet fuel, which could then be redistributed to a network, Hoh said. Vopak plans to put similar adaptations in place for the storage of renewable fuels including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), he said. In future, artificial intelligence (AI) could help examine SAF and jet fuel flows to identify the most well-connected trading hubs to invest in, Hoh added. This will help the firm connect as quickly as possible to end markets. Vopak is also looking at improving efficiency by having more streamlined, open systems where fuels can be used by multiple users, thus lowering costs. Asked whether multiple supply pathways to the airport build resilience, or if one very reliable supply chain is enough, United's Reina said it depends on the marginal utility of having an additional path versus its cost. "Historically, there's been a lot of focus on making the supply chain more lean and efficient over time — but that leads to a little bit of myopia," Reina said. Diversification is important, especially considering where United Airlines operates, he added. Diversification adds complexity, but creates increased access to airports. "Supply resilience has a rightful place, but done in a sensible way [considering costs]," he said. The industry needs to invest in supply contingencies and jet fuel infrastructure to remain resilient. Shell's Tan said. "If you want resilience, you must have options and contingencies," she said. There has been discussion on SAF at previous IATA conferences, but it needs to be established that conventional jet is the main fuel needed in aviation for many decades to come, she added. "Having a refinery in your backyard makes you feel like you have supply security — which is true to some extent. But you need to couple that with trading capabilities, in the event perhaps that the refinery switches from jet fuel to diesel production. You then have the trading capability to divest or source from different sources," Tan said. This may lead to longer voyage times which would then need more midstream infrastructure like tanks, she added. Steffan Munday, group head of fuel operations at Anglo-Spanish airline IAG, noted the importance of understanding the full supply chain and implementing the right solutions for resilience, not just easy ones. It might be easy to put another tank at the airport, but harder to build a pipeline, for example. "But it's cheaper to have resilience, than not to be flying," he said. Communication is key A short-term solution to improve resilience is more timely communication among supply chain players about factors like supply and demand, Tan said, a view echoed by other panellists. "This is so we're not second-guessing each other and can invest precious capital in the right avenues where customers have growth or demand. Communication doesn't add a lot of cost to the industry, but helps us work better," she said. Building in more buffer time for fuel management and planning will help, but in the longer term, industry players need to come together to invest more in infrastructure, she added. The Middle East crisis has revealed weaknesses in the network, and strengthening these areas should be the focus, she said. Many infrastructure investment opportunities only come in small windows of time, often after a crisis, Reina said. Getting approval will take time and involve lengthy processes, but airlines should take a longer-term view instead of only focusing on what costs in the next quarter or year look like, he added. Continuous dialogue between airports and fuel teams is vital so that stakeholders are well-prepared when opportunities for infrastructure development appear. "You're not scrambling as you've already done the legwork, and you can act well," he said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC
Cop: Libya pledges GHG reductions in first NDC
Berlin, 10 November (Argus) — Libya's internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) has pledged to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15pc in 2035 compared with 2023, conditional on international finance. The country submitted its first climate plan under the Paris climate agreement — or nationally determined contribution (NDC) — to UN climate arm the UNFCCC. It covers the 2026-35 period. Without international finance, Libya expects its GHG emissions to rise by 20pc over the period, still an improvement on the almost 35pc increase expected under a business-as-usual scenario, the GNU said. Libya expects most of the GHG reductions to stem from gas flaring recovery, which will capture and use natural gas currently wasted during oil production, reducing emissions while increasing energy supply, the GNU said. Gas flaring recovery projects are expected to avoid around 90mn t CO2e and save 40mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of natural gas for domestic use or export in 2026–35. Emissions cuts in power generation are also expected to contribute significantly. Political instability since Libya's 2011 civil war explains the late submission of its first NDC, and also leads to challenging financing conditions, the GNU said. Libya emitted 97.3mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2023, with the energy sector — including not just oil, gas and power production but also transport — the biggest emitter by far, accounting for 88pc. The country pointed to its substantial crude reserves, saying that the exploitation of oil and gas is an opportunity for investment and development. But it is also working to diversify its economy to protect itself from oil prices fluctuations and contribute to the energy transition and cut its exposure to environmental vulnerabilities, the GNU said. Implementing Libya's emissions reduction measures will require an estimated $29.6bn over 2026–35, of which domestic finance accounts for 31pc, according to the NDC. The energy sector will require the lion's share, at $28bn. But while the largest overall contribution to the cuts will come from gas flaring recovery, at 36pc, this is estimated to need just $1.9 bn, or 6.3pc, of the total finance. This compares with the power sector, which will contribute 26pc to emissions cuts but is expected to need $14.6bn, around half the total finance. The transport sector will need $8.8 bn, or almost 30pc of the total. Funds will support fleet modernisation, fuel efficiency, alternative fuels, electrification and public transport. The GNU also pointed to state-owned National Oil Corporation's (NOC's) engagement in international initiatives such as the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0), and related tools including the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS). The GNU has been assessing the viability of replacing diesel with gas for power generation. The switch to natural gas in the country's power sector could save 40mn toe in 2026-35. Libya also needs to develop international partnerships to position itself at the "forefront of major research into hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen", the GNU said. And the GNU wishes to make "full use" of the cooperative mechanisms provided for in Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which includes two international carbon market mechanisms. Libya is also looking at introducing a "gradual" carbon tax or carbon market, the GNU said, as a "tool to improve energy efficiency and to secure financing to reduce fugitive emissions or in the electricity, industrial, waste, agriculture and forestry sectors". The GNU anticipates further GDP growth until 2035, along with a "significant" reduction in the country's carbon intensity even under the business-as-usual scenario. This is as the country starts from a "very high emission" level owing to the "total" absence of emissions reduction policies, it said. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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