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US Group II base oil margins rise on higher prices

  • Market: Oil products
  • 08/05/24

US Group II base oil margins over feedstocks and competing fuels rose during the week ended 3 May as spot prices continued to rise on a more balanced supply/demand situation.

The Argus domestic spot US Group II N100 premium to four-week average low-sulphur vacuum gas oil (VGO) rose to $1.03/USG, up from 92¢/USG the previous week. Margins remained below year-earlier levels of $1.08/USG.

The Argus domestic spot US Group II N100 premium to four-week average US Gulf coast (USGC) diesel rose to 89¢/USG, up from 79¢/USG the previous week. Margins remained below year-earlier levels of 90¢USG.

Margins over VGO are at their highest since February, and margins over diesel are at their highest since January.

Group II base oil spot prices have risen each of the past three weeks on rising demand and tighter supply, particularly for low-viscosity grades.

Key Group II refiner Motiva is taking a partial turnaround at its 40,000 b/d Group II/III base oil unit in Port Arthur, which is affecting its low-viscosity output.

Demand for base oils are also rising as blenders are seeing increasing finished lubricant consumption and are also building limited stocks to get ahead of potential higher prices in the peak summer months.

Base oil margins are also being supported by declining values for feedstock and competing fuels. Supplies of VGO are increasing as imports from Europe are being discussed amid an open arbitrage.

Diesel prices are also falling, to their lowest since January, on lower demand and ample supplies.


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01/07/25

US Senate votes to soften clean energy tax cuts: Update

US Senate votes to soften clean energy tax cuts: Update

Adds details throughout Washington, 1 July (Argus) — The US Senate is giving wind and solar projects slightly more time to qualify for subsidies, as part of a budget bill Republicans passed today that would repeal most of the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act while expanding oil and gas leasing. An updated version of the bill , released shortly before it was passed Tuesday by the Senate in a 51-50 vote, would allow wind and solar projects to continue to qualify for clean electricity tax credits so long as they commence construction within 12 months of the bill's enactment. Republican leaders also dropped a first-time excise tax on wind and solar projects they added to the bill just days ago, as they worked to shore up support from US senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and other moderates that had balked at a more aggressive tax credit phase-out schedule. The Senate-passed bill would still zero out tax credits for wind and solar projects that are not placed into service before the end of 2027 — in line with a draft of the bill released on 28 June — but developers that start construction within 12 months can still qualify for tax credits worth up to 30pc of a project's cost or up to $15/MWh. Renewable energy officials saw that change as an improvement over the initial draft, which could have ended credits for projects already under development. Business Council for Sustainable Energy president Lynn Abramson said the legislation still represents a "significant step backward" for the industry. The bill, which passed with US vice president JD Vance casting a tie-breaking vote, will now advance to the US House of Representatives for a final vote as soon as Wednesday. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said the chamber will "work quickly" to pass the bill, although doing so will require near-unanimous support from House Republicans, some of whom have bristled at changes the Senate made to the bill. President Donald Trump said today he wants a final vote by 4 July and urged House Republicans to ignore "its occasional 'GRANDSTANDERS'" that have previously held up his legislative agenda. The Senate bill is expected to cut about $560bn of clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, according to estimates based on the 28 June version of the bill. But those savings will be dwarfed by other spending in the bill and additional tax cuts that, if enacted, are expected to add nearly $3.3 trillion to the debt over the next decade, the US Congressional Budget Office said. The bill would repeal a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles purchased after 30 September and zero out all penalties against automakers that fail to meet fuel-economy standards, undermining incentives for automakers to sell electric and hybrid vehicles. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, who earlier this year worked alongside Trump on a cost-cutting "DOGE" project, said the bill would destroy millions of jobs. "Utterly insane and destructive," Musk said in a social media post on 28 June. "It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future." The Senate softened some of the tax credit cuts the House voted for in May. Clean hydrogen projects would need to start construction by 1 January 2028 to qualify for a tax credit of up to $3/kg, rather than facing a House deadline at the end of 2025. In another change, the bill extends a tax credit for biofuels by two years, until 2029, rather than a four-year extension the Senate initially proposed. The bill would expand federal oil and gas leasing by mandating twice yearly lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico and regular onshore leases, in addition to slashing royalty rates to the lowest levels in nearly two decades. The bill would also indefinitely delay the collection of a $900/metric tonne fee on methane leaks and reinstate a federal tax deduction for "intangible" drilling costs. Another program would provide $171mn to buy crude to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a fraction of the $1.3bn fund that was passed by the House. Republicans initially sought to overhaul permitting through the bill, but the only program that is eligible for the filibuster-proof process used for the bill would allow industry to pay a fee to fast-track environmental reviews. The bill would also cut royalties on coal mined on federal land, provide a tax credit for metallurgical coal, repeal climate-related grant programs from the Inflation Reduction Act, and permanently extend some business tax breaks. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico GDP outlook ticks up after 6-month slide


01/07/25
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01/07/25

Mexico GDP outlook ticks up after 6-month slide

Mexico City, 1 July (Argus) — Private-sector analysts nudged up Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast in the central bank's June survey, after six consecutive months of downward revisions. The median estimate rose to 0.2pc annual growth this year, up from 0.18pc in the May survey. Yet, the 2026 growth forecast edged down for a fourth consecutive month, to 1.4pc from 1.41pc. The growth outlook stabilized in June with US tariffs on Mexico and other nations in place and unlikely to change significantly in the short term. For Mexico, any shifts hinge on the upcoming US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement review. Domestic security replaced foreign trade as the top risk to GDP over the next six months. Geopolitical instability climbed to third place following the Israel-Iran conflict. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations rose for a third straight month to 4pc in June from 3.9pc in May. CPI accelerated for a fourth consecutive month in May to an annualized 4.42pc, latest data show, after reaching a four-year low of 3.59pc in January, according to Inegi. Despite the acceleration in inflation, the central bank issued its fourth consecutive half-point cut to the target interest rate last week, lowering it to 8pc, its lowest since July 2022, but signaled a slower pace to the current rate cut cycle on inflation concerns. Survey respondents maintained unchanged their end-2025 forecast for the central bank's target rate at 7.5pc in the June survey. Expectations for the peso-US dollar exchange rate reflect the growing strength of the peso in recent months, tied to the US dollar's steady depreciation in global currency markets. The peso is now expected to close 2025 at Ps20.13/$1, stronger than the Ps20.50/$1 forecast in May. The end-2026 forecast moved to Ps20.70/$1 from Ps21.00/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Senate votes to pass tax, energy bill


01/07/25
News
01/07/25

US Senate votes to pass tax, energy bill

Washington, 1 July (Argus) — The Republican-led US Senate narrowly passed a more than $3 trillion bill today that would expand oil and gas leasing, weaken fuel-economy rules, and phase out many of the clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Senate voted 51-50 to pass a revised version of the massive budget bill, with US vice president JD Vance casting a tie-breaking vote. US senators Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) joined Democrats in voting against the bill, which will now advance to the US House of Representatives for a potential final vote by the end of the week. "The House will work quickly to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill that enacts President Trump's full America First agenda by the Fourth of July," House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said. President Donald Trump has pushed for the enactment of the bill the Independence Day holiday, but suggested today that his non-binding deadline may slip. "I'd love to do July 4th, but I think it's very hard to do July 4", he said. Among the difficulties is a House rule meant to provide at least 72 hours to review a bill before starting debate, in addition to a razor-thin Republican majority in the House that could make it challenging for the bill to pass. The Senate bill is expected to save about $560bn over a decade by ending many of the clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, but other tax cuts and policies in the bill are expected add more than $3 trillion to the deficit, according to estimates the non-partisan US Joint Committee on Taxation conducted on the bill as drafted on 28 June. The bill would repeal a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles purchased after 30 September and zero out all penalties against automakers that fail to meet fuel-economy standards. The bill would also end tax credits for wind and solar projects that fail to start operations by 2027. As part of a final amendment released today, Republicans said they agreed to remove an excise tax on wind and solar projects they added into the bill just days ago. But the Senate bill softened some of the energy tax credit cuts the House voted to pass in May. Clean hydrogen projects would need to start construction by 1 January 2028 to qualify for a tax credit of up to $3/kg that developers say is critical for the industry's growth, rather than facing a House deadline at the end of 2025. In another recent change, the Senate bill is seeking a two-year extension of a biofuels tax break until 2029, rather than a four-year extension the Senate initially proposed. The bill would expand federal oil and gas leasing by mandating twice yearly lease sales in the US Gulf of Mexico and regular onshore leases, in addition to slashing royalty rates to the lowest levels in nearly two decades. The bill would also indefinitely delay the collection of a $900/metric tonne fee on methane leaks and reinstate a federal tax deduction for "intangible" drilling costs. Another program would provide $171mn to buy crude to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a fraction of the $1.3bn fund that was passed by the House. Republicans initially sought to overhaul permitting through the bill, but the only program that is eligible for the filibuster-proof process used for the bill would allow industry to pay a fee to fast-track environmental reviews. The bill would also cut royalties on coal mined on federal land, provide a tax credit for metallurgical coal, repeal climate-related grant programs from the Inflation Reduction Act, and permanently extend some business tax breaks. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK's Lindsey refinery insolvent: Update


30/06/25
News
30/06/25

UK's Lindsey refinery insolvent: Update

Recasts to add details on insolvency process and refinery operations throughout London, 30 June (Argus) — The future of the UK's 105,700 b/d Lindsey refinery is uncertain, after a court placed its operator under special financial measures. The government's insolvency service said three subsidiaries of UK-based Prax — Prax Lindsey Oil Refinery, Prax Storage Lindsey, and Prax Terminals Killingholme — are in a liquidation process, under which assets are sold to pay off debts. The refinery appears to be working normally. But the move has come as a surprise to the oil markets and to the UK government. The government said the news was "deeply concerning", and said there were "longstanding issues with this company", without specifying what these are beyond it being loss making. The government said it wanted "an immediate investigation into the conduct of the directors, and the circumstances surrounding this insolvency." Lindsey refinery customers and suppliers have been instructed to contact appointed administrators at FTI Consulting, which declined an Argus request to comment further. It is unclear if the refinery has entered the administration process voluntarily, or if it has been forced in by a creditor. Prax had been engaged in an expansion of its refining activity, agreeing to buy Shell out of Germany's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery, but that deal collapsed late in 2024. Prax also has upstream and retail assets, which appear not to be included in the liquidation process. If the Lindsey refinery closes the UK would have lost just under a quarter of its total refining capacity since the start of this year. Labour unions Unite and GMB called on the government to safeguard refinery operations and fuel supplies. The UK energy ministry said today the "government will ensure supplies are maintained, protect our energy security and do everything we can to support workers". The Lindsey refinery supplies London Heathrow, and manages a pipeline between the refinery and the airport. The UK was already a net importer of diesel and jet fuel, but its need for premium middle distillates' imports has risen since the closure of Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland at the end of April . Net UK diesel and kerosine-jet imports rose on the year by 2.6pc and 1.7pc to 793,000t and 762,000t, respectively, in May, according to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI). Lindsey was mostly running US light sweet WTI, which comprised more than 80,000 b/d, or almost 85pc of all crude delivered to the refinery's Immingham port, according to Vortexa. All was supplied by trading firm Glencore . Tracking data show two Aframax-sized tankers carrying WTI — Propontis and Kmarin Rigour — are on route to Immingham, although their discharge port could change. Glencore said it "is continuing to work with key stakeholders in efforts to support a safe and responsible outcome for the refinery." Crude traders said while some disruptions to operation at Lindsey might take place, a full shutdown in the near future is unlikely. A products trader said "the deals already concluded would be performed, unless the liquidator decides otherwise." By George Maher-Bonnett and Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Senate bill cuts 45Z extension, boosts crops


30/06/25
News
30/06/25

US Senate bill cuts 45Z extension, boosts crops

New York, 30 June (Argus) — The latest Senate draft of a major US budget bill would extend a biofuels tax break for an additional two years, down from four years in the prior draft, and set far more sweeping limits on foreign feedstocks. The "45Z" clean fuel production credit would last until 2029 and be available for only domestically produced fuels produced from North American feedstocks starting next year, according to a draft released over the weekend by Senate leaders that could be voted on as soon as Monday. An earlier Senate draft proposed extending the incentive through 2031 and cutting credit values for foreign feedstocks by just 20pc. The incentive, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, kicked off this year and currently offers a sliding scale of subsidy to US-made alternative fuels through 2027 based on their greenhouse gas emissions. The updated language is a win for farm groups, which have worried that imports of used cooking oil, tallow, and sugarcane ethanol are hurting demand for home-grown crops that can also be turned into biofuels. Refiners that had previously looked abroad for renewable diesel inputs, expanding US production to record levels last year, would have to pay up for scarcer domestic options. A shorter credit extension could frustrate corners of the industry that had emphasized the need for policy certainty — including companies with plans to start producing novel fuels later this decade — although biofuel incentives have a long history of extensions. For instance, the Senate bill would revive an expired tax credit for small biodiesel producers in a major change from earlier drafts. Facilities with capacities of no more than 60mn USG/yr could claim a 20¢/USG subsidy for up to 15mn USG of annual production this year and next year, supplementing tax breaks they can already claim under 45Z. That could keep more biodiesel plants, which have struggled to adapt to policy changes and competition from larger renewable diesel producers, running after a difficult start to the year. Smaller producers also would benefit from the latest Senate draft preserving the ability of companies without enough tax liability to sell tax credits to others. The bill is otherwise similar to earlier versions. It would still bar regulators next year from considering indirect emissions from land use changes, a shift from current law that in effect ups subsidies for fuels made from crops, another top priority for farm groups. If passed, the typical gallon of US dry mill corn ethanol and canola biodiesel would likely qualify for some 45Z subsidy — unlike under current rules — and soybean-based road fuels would earn larger credits next year. Aviation fuels conversely would see slimmer subsidies starting next year, since the bill would eliminate extra credit under current law for jet fuels over road fuels. That would be a major disruption to airlines and to those refiners that have invested in upgrading more of their renewable diesel output to instead produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Trucking groups had argued that the imbalance was diverting feedstocks away from road markets to costlier SAF production — and that treating fuel types equally was one way conservative lawmakers could reduce the credit's price-tag. More changes possible The bill could be changed further Monday as the Senate proceeds with a process in which lawmakers can propose amendments. If the bill passes, it would go back to the House for approval. President Donald Trump has pushed lawmakers to finalize the sprawling package this week, an ambitious timeline given lawmakers still disagree on key issues. Any revised 45Z credit would also need final rules from the US Department of Treasury, which still has questions to answer about eligibility this year. The ultimate profitability of biofuels will depend on interactions between the tax credit and other policies that are also in flux. That includes a federal biofuel blend mandate, which the Trump administration wants to revamp to discourage foreign feedstocks, and newly tougher carbon intensity targets in California's influential low-carbon fuel standard market. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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