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Low-carbon methanol costly EU bunker option
Low-carbon methanol costly EU bunker option
New York, 16 May (Argus) — Ship owners are ordering new vessels equipped with methanol-burning capabilities, largely in response to tightening carbon emissions regulations in Europe. But despite the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings that low-carbon methanol provides, it cannot currently compete on price with grey methanol or conventional marine fuels. Ship owners operate 33 methanol-fueled vessels today and have another 29 on order through the end of the year, according to vessel classification society DNV. All 62 vessels are oil and chemical tankers. DNV expects a total of 281 methanol-fueled vessels by 2028, of which 165 will be container ships, 19 bulk carrier and 14 car carrier vessels. Argus Consulting expects an even bigger build-out, with more than 300 methanol-fueled vessels by 2028. A methanol configured dual-fuel vessel has the option to burn conventional marine fuel or any type of methanol: grey or low-carbon. Grey methanol is made from natural gas or coal. Low-carbon methanol includes biomethanol, made of sustainable biomass, and e-methanol, produced by combining green hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide. The fuel-switching capabilities of the dual-fuel vessels provide ship owners with a natural price hedge. When methanol prices are lower than conventional bunkers the ship owner can burn methanol, and vice versa. Methanol, with its zero-sulphur emissions, is advantageous in emission control areas (ECAs), such as the US and Canadian territorial waters. In ECAs, the marine fuel sulphur content is capped at 0.1pc, and ship owners can burn methanol instead of 0.1pc sulphur maximum marine gasoil (MGO). In the US Gulf coast, the grey methanol discount to MGO was $23/t MGO-equivalent average in the first half of May. The grey methanol discount averaged $162/t MGOe for all of 2023. Starting this year, ship owners travelling within, in and out of European territorial waters are required to pay for 40pc of their CO2 emissions through the EU emissions trading system. Next year, ship owners will be required to pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions. Separately, ship owners will have to reduce their vessels' lifecycle GHG intensities, starting in 2025 with a 2pc reduction and gradually increasing to 80pc by 2050, from a 2020 baseline. The penalty for exceeding the GHG emission intensity is set by the EU at €2,400/t ($2,596/t) of very low-sulplhur fuel oil equivalent. Even though these regulations apply to EU territorial waters, they affect ship owners travelling between the US and Europe. Despite the lack of sulphur emissions, grey methanol generates CO2. With CO2 marine fuel shipping regulations tightening, ship owners have turned their sights to low-carbon methanol. But US Gulf coast low-carbon methanol was priced at $2,317/t MGOe in the first half of May, nearly triple the outright price of MGO at $785/t. Factoring in the cost of 70pc of CO2 emissions and the GHG intensity penalty, the US Gulf coast MGO would rise to about $857/t. At this MGO level, the US Gulf coast low-carbon methanol would be 2.7 times the price of MGO. By comparison, grey methanol with added CO2 emissions cost would be around $962/t, or 1.1 times the price of MGO. To mitigate the high low-carbon methanol costs, some ship owners have been eyeing long-term agreements with suppliers to lock in product availabilities and cheaper prices available on the spot market. Danish container ship owner Maersk has lead the way, entering in low-carbon methanol production agreements in the US with Proman, Orsted, Carbon Sink, and SunGaas Renewables. These are slated to come on line in 2025-27. Global upcoming low-carbon methanol projects are expected to produce 16mn t by 2027, according to industry trade association the Methanol Institute, up from two years ago when the institute was tracking projects with total capacity of 8mn t by 2027. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Biomethanol market slows, but shipowners eye offtakes
Biomethanol market slows, but shipowners eye offtakes
London, 16 May (Argus) — The UK's biomethanol consumption fell by 37pc last year as competition from alternative renewable fuel compliance options weighed on demand. The UK consumed 40mn litres of biomethanol in 2023, down from 63mn l in 2022, 53mn l in 2021 and 48mn l in 2020, according to provisional data from the country's Department for Transport. Biomethanol is used as a blending component for gasoline in the UK. Market participants attribute the decline in demand to ample supply of competitively priced alternatives to meet the UK's mandate for the use of renewable fuels in the transport sector. Fob ARA range biodiesel prices fell to a 19-month low towards the end of 2023 , following an unusually large influx of supply to Europe from China since the start of the year. EU biodiesel imports from China reached a record 1.06mn t in 2023 , up from 557,000t in 2022, according to GTT data. The increase in imports contributed to lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets, including the UK. Companies supplying biofuels for transport in the UK can generate renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs), which are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet the UK's renewables' mandate. The Argus UK non-crop RTFC reduction obligation price averaged 21.79 pence/RTFC in 2023, compared with 36.35p in 2022. The price has averaged 16.79p so far this year, compared with 26.40p and 37.39p in the same period in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The drop in demand for biomethanol from the UK transport sector is weighing on domestic prices. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price has averaged $1,081.43/t so far in May, having been on a consistent downward trend since late October when the price peaked at $1,205/t. The price averaged $1,212.75/t in May 2023. The slowdown in demand has put biomethanol production margins under pressure, prompting some producers to cut output. Silver lining Demand for renewable methanol, in the form of both biomethanol and e-methanol, could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector in the coming years as shipowners seek to reduce their emssions. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation is due to come into effect at the start of next year. It aims to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of marine fuels by 2pc in 2025 and by 80pc by 2050. Shipping companies can choose from a wide range of alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions, but several are betting on methanol and renewable methanol. Danish shipping giant Maersk has ordered 24 methanol-powered container ships for delivery and commissioning during 2024-25, and Japanese classification society ClassNK said in a recent report that it expects a total of 77 methanol-ready ships to be ordered by 2026, up from 27 methanol newbuilds expected to be ordered this year. Offtake agreements for renewable methanol are also on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biometanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . The company also said it has secured an agreement with Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind for the offtake of 500,000 t/yr from 2024. Meanwhile, Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said last year that it will offtake biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting this year. Another spanner in the works? Although the outlook on renewable methanol demand from the shipping sector appears bright, the recognition of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels produced through mass balancing in non-EU grids is uncertain. More than 40 energy companies and institutes have sent joint letters to the European Commission asking for these products to be included in the Union Database , which aims to prevent the relabelling of biofuels' sustainability declaration. The UDB was launched in January 2024 for liquid fuels and will include gaseous fuels in November, but the commission plans to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels if it is transported through gas grids outside of the EU. The measure "is likely to reduce the availability and increase the cost of low- and zero-carbon bunker fuels for shipping" and may also impact hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels, one of the letters sent to the commission said. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nayara Energy to set up two ethanol plants in India
Nayara Energy to set up two ethanol plants in India
Mumbai, 16 May (Argus) — Indian private-sector refiner Nayara Energy plans to invest 6bn rupees ($71.9mn) to set up two Indian ethanol plants, each with a production capacity of 200 kilolitre (kl)/d. Nayara has already identified and purchased land in south India's Naidupeta town, Andhra Pradesh state and central India's Balaghat city, Madhya Pradesh state for the proposed plants. The plants will be commissioned by 2026 and will use broken rice and maize as feedstock. The company aims to gradually increase the number of plants to five, with a combined ethanol production capacity of around 1,000 kl/d. "The establishment of ethanol facilities will significantly enhance Nayara Energy's ethanol supply reliability, playing a crucial role in meeting the Indian government's 20pc blending target by the end of fiscal year 2025-2026," Nayara Energy's chief executive officer Alessandro des Dorides said. India achieved 12pc ethanol blending with petrol during November 2023-March 2024, according to the oil ministry. Nayara Energy is also considering a significant expansion of its 400,000 b/d Vadinar refinery, and proposed doubling primary capacity to 800,000 b/d. The Vadinar expansion project would essentially mean building a new refinery at the existing site, Indian oil ministry secretary Pankaj Jain said in February, according to Russian state-owned news agency Tass. Russian state-controlled Rosneft has a 49pc shareholding in Nayara. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Austria advances hydrogen subsidy law
Austria advances hydrogen subsidy law
Hamburg, 16 May (Argus) — Austria's government has agreed on a law for subsidising renewable hydrogen production. The law foresees €400mn being allocated to projects through a competitive bidding system this year as fixed-premium subsidies over a 10-year period, with another €420mn to be made available in 2025-26 . Funds could be made available by utilising the European hydrogen bank's "auction-as-a-service" scheme, which allows EU member states to use the mechanism to allocate funds to projects on their territory. A second European hydrogen bank auction is due to launch towards the end of this year. Austria could use this to allocate funds, but the law also leaves the option open of conducting auctions outside of the hydrogen bank mechanism. In a supplementary text, the government said that the projects supported through the law could start operations between 2027 and 2030. The government estimates that the €820mn budget could support some 18,000-40,000 t/yr of renewable hydrogen production, assuming subsidies come in at an average €2-4.50/kg. Under the hydrogen bank auction mechanism, funds are allocated to the projects requesting the least amount of support. In the hydrogen pilot auction, for which results were announced in late April, five Austrian projects participated, but they were all unsuccessful. Subsidies went to plants in Spain, Portugal, Norway and Finland instead . The Austrian projects represented a combined 278MW of electrolyser capacity with anticipated production of around 33,200 t/yr. A single project made up well over half of this and with a bid of around €0.60/kg was not far off the clearing price. Meanwhile, bids for the other, much smaller projects were close to the auction's ceiling price of €4.50/kg. Germany was the only country to use the "auction-as-a-service" mechanism for the pilot auction, but other countries, such as Belgium , are also considering using it in the future. Austria's hydrogen subsidy law has now been passed to parliament for review. By Stefan Krumpelmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spotlight content
Browse the latest thought leadership produced by our global team of experts covering net zero markets around the globe.
Europe's Developing Biomethane Market and Pricing
Consumer appetite for fossil fuel alternatives is supporting the development of Europe’s biomethane industry, while voluntary biomethane trade is developing as a guarantee of origin market.
Insight papers - 16/05/24The European Hydrogen Bank: Examining the pilot auction results and looking ahead to round two
Seven renewable hydrogen projects with a combined 1.5GW of electrolyser capacity will receive EU subsidies for their output.
Insight papers - 16/05/24Decarbonisation and Me(thanol)
Methanol is a crucial input to the chemical, construction and automotive industries. It stands on the cusp of significant growth, as Asia-Pacific demand rises and in new uses as the mobility sector looks to it to aid decarbonisation, particularly in marine applications.
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