Overview

The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.

Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.

Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market.  We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.

Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:

  • Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
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Latest ammonia news
06/03/25

Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks

Q&A: Ocior touts Indian H2 drive, urges rule tweaks

Mumbai, 6 March (Argus) — Indian company Ocior is developing renewable hydrogen and ammonia projects in India and Egypt. Its most advanced project in Odisha, India, will be developed in two phases — 200,000 t/yr in the first and 800,000 t/yr in the second — with plans to take a final investment decision (FID) for the first phase by September. Argus spoke with the firm's founder and chief executive, Ranjit Gupta, about India's regulatory framework for green hydrogen and progress of the company's projects. Edited highlights follow: How is India faring in development of the hydrogen sector? India is actually doing a very good job by creating a market for 200,000t/yr of green hydrogen use in refineries. The central government has allocated this capacity across various refineries, which are coming up with individual tenders for hydrogen plants to be put up at or around them. One tender by [state-owned refiner] IOC is already closed and other tenders are expected to close in March and April. Once a price for green hydrogen is discovered through these tenders, it will really help the industry move forward. If the government is able to demonstrate that there is offtake available, there will be no dearth of investments in this sector. What more can the government do on the regulatory side? There are a lot of things that the government could potentially do. The objective is to get green hydrogen and green ammonia costs as low as possible. And you do that by at least bringing it down on par with current grey hydrogen and ammonia prices. Both grey hydrogen and ammonia are produced from natural gas. India imports most of its natural gas, and all of it is denominated in dollars. But the refineries and [state-owned] SECI [Solar Energy Corporation of India] are giving us rupee pricing. We have requested dollar pricing—that could help us drive the cost of debt down. If you have a dollar offtake, you can go for a dollar debt, which means you don't have to hedge the dollar to rupee. Another thing, when setting up a green hydrogen and green ammonia project, it should be recognised that we are replacing imported goods. Therefore, the industry should receive benefits that help reduce taxes. If I can reduce my taxes and cost of debt, that will really help in reducing my capital expenditure number, ultimately bringing down the cost of hydrogen and ammonia. Earlier, selling renewable energy from one special economic (SEZ) zone to another was not allowed, but the government has fixed that. But selling renewable energy from an export-oriented unit to an SEZ is still not allowed. The ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) has been trying for last two years to get it changed at the behest of the industry. Additionally, you cannot sell excess energy outside the SEZ. That needs to change. The regulator could define taxes I have saved and determine a tariff adjustment if I sell excess renewable energy to the domestic tariff area. There are several small things like this which we are requesting the government to do. And MNRE has done a fabulous job in trying to get these things done. But when it becomes inter-ministerial, the process is drawn out a little longer. How are your projects progressing? We have two projects — in Egypt and Odisha, India. We hope to FID the first phase of the Odisha project by September, and the Egypt project by March next year. But further progress will depend on offtake. For our Odisha project, we have acquired land and started front end engineering design (FEED) study. We have contracted Norwegian company Aker solutions to work on the FEED study. We have awarded ammonia licensor contract to [US engineering firm] KBR and green certification study to [German certification provider] TUV Rheinland. We have already completed geotechnical studies. We are in discussions with GRIDCO [Grid Corporation of Odisha] for renewable power. So, a lot of progress has been made. The issue is offtake. If we are able to determine that, then we could potentially start construction of the project by August- September. We have signed a memorandum of understanding with an European trader, Ameropa, and are in discussions with other Japanese and European companies for offtake. Plus, we are going to take part in the SECI's green ammonia tender. Are you facing any challenges in developing the project in Egypt? Every country is different. In Egypt, the big advantage is that solar and wind resource are fantastic, much better than India. No issue with land availability — we have been allocated 600 km² of land for the wind project and around 11,000 acres for solar projects by the Egyptian authorities. That's a big advantage over India, where land is always a challenge to aggregate. On the regulatory framework, both countries are similar. The disadvantage of Egypt is that they don't have a good electricity grid. India has great infrastructure for project development and construction. And you will not have a problem with labor or skilled engineers. Egypt might not have that available. So, there are advantages and disadvantages to each country. How much does compliance with EU standards on renewable fuels of non-biological origins impact production costs? The biggest issue is temporal correlation. If they could do away with it, that would make things easier. In dollar terms, the difference in production costs would be close to about 10pc for the price of ammonia. The EU green lobby needs to realise that the more stringent they make green standards, the further away the pricing will be from grey hydrogen, making it more difficult for consumers to accept green hydrogen. This will also leave the doors open for blue hydrogen, which will come in somewhere in the middle. By starting with less restrictive covenants, not compromising on carbon content, green hydrogen pricing can be more competitive than blue hydrogen for EU. By Akansha Victor Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Latest ammonia news

New US export capacity to dampen pressure on VLGC rates


04/03/25
Latest ammonia news
04/03/25

New US export capacity to dampen pressure on VLGC rates

A slew of LPG capacity expansion projects could lift the number of VLGCs loading on the Gulf coast, writes Yohanna Pinheiro London, 4 March (Argus) — Planned LPG export capacity expansions on the US Gulf coast over the next three years could taper some previously forecast downward pressure on VLGC freight rates, in turn caused by a weighty influx of newbuilds scheduled for 2027 delivery. US midstream operator Targa Resources announced plans late last month to expand its 450,000 b/d (14mn t/yr) Galena Park LPG terminal in Houston to 625,000 b/d by the third quarter of 2027. This came after peers MPLX and Oneok unveiled their project to develop a new 400,000 b/d LPG export facility in Texas City. These projects join rival firms Energy Transfer's and Enterprise Products' plans to expand their 480,000 b/d Nederland and 763,000 b/d Baytown terminals by 250,000 b/d and 300,000 b/d, respectively, by 2026 — although these will also incorporate ethane. These projects could in theory add about 65 VLGCs/month loading on the Gulf coast once completed, although the ethane and liftings by midsize gas carriers will mean it is likely to be lower. VLGCs employed on a Gulf coast to east Asia voyage, which takes 28-45 days, stood at around 139/month last year compared with 119/month in 2023, Kpler data show, after Panama Canal transits improved and 40 newbuild VLGCs were delivered. About 100 more new vessels will have hit the water by late 2028, most due for delivery in 2027, threatening to oversupply the market. Scrapping is unlikely to balance it, despite more than 15pc of the fleet being 25 years old or more, because they will find employment in less conventional markets such as Iran. The strong VLGC orderbook was fuelled by a rush to embrace a nascent ammonia fuel market. But the adoption of ammonia has been slow and market participants do not expect enough demand to absorb the added VLGC availability before 2030. Several of the very large ammonia carriers have not been contracted by projects still under development, meaning they are likely to ship LPG until the demand from ammonia emerges. Increased capacity on the US Gulf coast could help offset this vessel supply pressure, but whether the LPG import demand in longer-haul markets matches this is uncertain. Fee-for-all The world's largest VLGC owner, BW LPG, along with a range of freight market participants have highlighted a more immediate concern from the US government's recently announced proposal to impose fees on Chinese-built vessels and shipowners with newbuild orders at Chinese yards calling at US ports. "[The measure] would have very disruptive implications on the whole shipping market… trading houses, shipping companies, oil and energy majors all have Chinese-built vessels in their fleet," chief executive Kristian Sorensen says. About 15pc of the global VLGC fleet of around 400 vessels were built in China, most of them having been built in South Korea and Japan. And 24 of the 107 VLGCs on order are at Chinese yards, he says. BW LPG's VLGC fleet of 54 includes 11 Chinese-built ships. The company remains optimistic on the outlook for the rest of 2025, despite the political and legislative uncertainty, as warmer weather in the northern hemisphere widens the US-Asia LPG arbitrage and additional export capacity on the Gulf coast opens later in the year. Further cargoes will also emerge from Qatar's North Field expansion , increasing vessel demand, BW LPG says. The potential for delays to re-emerge at the Panama Canal and an intense drydocking schedule for 80 vessels could also support rates, it says. This outlook is shared by New York-listed rival Dorian LPG, which does not expect US-China tensions to disrupt the LPG trade because of China's dependency on US exports. Norwegian owner Avance Gas meanwhile suggests more aggressive US sanctions on Iran could push demand from the shadow fleet to the conventional market, supporting VLGC rates. VLGC owners' results 4Q24 ±% 4Q23 2024 ±% 2023 BW LPG Profit $mn 39.7 -75.5 394.9 -19.9 TCE $/d 37,890 -50.2 48,300 -23.4 Dorian LPG Profit $mn 21.3 -78.7 161.2 -47.0 TCE $/d 36,071 -49.9 46,710 -25.3 Avance Gas Profit $mn 210.1 242.2 443.0 171.0 TCE $/d 28,200 -63.0 46,200 -22.5 US LPG sea export capacity exports VLGC rates VLGC newbuild orderbook Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest ammonia news

H2 developers chase local offtake in Brazil’s MG state


04/03/25
Latest ammonia news
04/03/25

H2 developers chase local offtake in Brazil’s MG state

The state's iron ore, steel, cement and agricultural sectors could be the bedrock of a hydrogen industry, writes Pamela Machado Paris, 4 March (Argus) — Most project developers targeting large-scale clean hydrogen production in Brazil have focused on the northeast of the country, which offers vast land and renewable energy potential and is well located for exports. But firms are increasingly looking southeast, including to the state of Minas Gerais, where domestic industry could provide ample offtake opportunities. Minas Gerais is a hub for mining, agriculture and other industries, and is Brazil's largest producer of coffee, iron ore, steel and cement. It is home to steelmakers ArcelorMittal and Gerdau, mining firm Vale and cement producer Holcim, among others. The area's vast agricultural sector has already attracted fertiliser producers seeking opportunities for green products, such as Switzerland-headquartered Atlas Agro . Decarbonisation of Minas Gerais' heavy industry could well be the next frontier for hydrogen project developers. State investment promotion agency Invest Minas says interest in projects looking to decarbonise steel operations is growing. Invest Minas helps investors and developers navigate financial and regulatory challenges, and also works with the state government to shape policy. Developers are looking at decarbonising steel all the way through to Scope 3 emissions — covering indirect upstream and downstream emissions — the agency's energy transition specialist, Miller Gazolla, says. And Brazil's cement output is poised to increase in the next decade, meaning producers in this industry should shift towards renewable hydrogen use to enable Brazil to meet its 2035 climate plan, think-tank Observatorio do Clima says. Among the developers drawn to Minas Gerais by these opportunities is Portugal's H2 Brazil. "Minas Gerais was strategically chosen for its large industrial cluster, home to mining, steel, cement, agribusiness and dairy industries," the firm's chief commercial officer, Nathalia Ervedosa, tells Argus. These are "all high-energy consumers needing clean energy solutions", Ervedosa says. H2 Brazil is planning a 600MW renewable hydrogen project targeting local offtake in Minas Gerais' Uberaba city. Exports may come eventually but the focus is on domestic opportunities because local industry "will absorb almost all production", Everdosa says. The project is to start in 2027 with a capacity of 20MW, rising to 600MW by 2029. H2 Brazil will deploy alkaline electrolysers and develop an experimental unit using solid oxide electrolysers to assess efficiency. Good growing conditions Minas Gerais already has over 11GW of installed solar power and is Brazil's main source of hydropower. Renewable energy can be generated for 150-180 reals/MWh ($26-31/MWh), Invest Minas says. Production of renewable hydrogen in the state could be possible at less than €2.40/kg ($2.5/kg), H2 Brazil says. But even with low power prices, achieving such low hydrogen production costs would probably require a sharp drop in electrolyser prices alongside high efficiency and utilisation rates. In any event, government support could help make hydrogen projects viable. "The region offers robust infrastructure to accommodate a hydrogen-to-X plan, while the state government and Uberaba municipality actively support the project with tax incentives and regulatory facilitation," Ervedosa says. Pre-approved environmental licensing for projects can reduce capital costs and speed up implementation, and the state offers tax and exchange rate incentives, she says. Tax exemptions also cover electrolyser purchases, Invest Minas says, and the state could reap benefits on the technology side too. Minas Gerais is home to Brazil's sole electrolyser manufacturing facility , operated by Germany's Neuman & Esser. The company in December announced plans to quadruple its proton exchange membrane electrolyser manufacturing capacity in Minas Gerais to 70 MW/yr. Minas Gerais, Brazil Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan's Class NK approves ammonia-fuelled bunker ship


25/02/25
Latest ammonia news
25/02/25

Japan's Class NK approves ammonia-fuelled bunker ship

Tokyo, 25 February (Argus) — A consortium has received an approval in principle (AiP) for its ammonia-fuelled ammonia bunkering ship from Japanese classification society Class NK. The consortium — including NYK, Singaporean vessel engineering company Seatrium and other undisclosed firms — obtained the AiP on 18 February, NYK Line said on 25 February. The AiP proved the ship design meets Class NK's safety, technical, and environmental standards. This marks another step towards implementing ammonia-fuelled vessels. Ammonia's safety risks, including its toxicity, as well as the danger of leaks from piping and tanks are major issues in designing the ship. The consortium aims to commission the ship by the latter half of 2020s and to operate at the ports in Singapore. The ship will also be assessed by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. NYK Line and its partners have not decided where to build the ship. NYK Line declined to disclose ammonia bunkering capacity of the vessel. Japan's shipping industry is developing alternative fuels to achieve decarbonisation, and ammonia is one of the key potential bunker fuel. NYK Line and its other partners — domestic shipbuilder Nihon Shipyard, engine developer Japan Engine and IHI Power System — also secured an AiP for their 40,000m³ ammonia-fuelled medium gas carrier in 2024. The ammonia carrier will be built at domestic shipbuilder Japan Marine United's Ariake shipyard in south Japan's Kumamoto prefecture, which is targeting commissioning in 2026. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Australia’s Woodside sees robust demand for LNG


25/02/25
Latest ammonia news
25/02/25

Australia’s Woodside sees robust demand for LNG

Sydney, 25 February (Argus) — Australian independent Woodside Energy sees LNG demand exceeding supply into the 2030s as project delays lead timelines for nearly 30mn t/yr of new capacity to slip into the next decade, chief executive Meg O'Neill said after releasing the firm's 2024 annual results today. Headwinds affecting some projects and "ongoing, robust demand" within Asia-Pacific will prevent any LNG supply glut, despite easing regulatory hurdles under the Trump administration, O'Neill told investors. Such headwinds could also impact Woodside. The company's 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) terminal is still waiting for federal consent to continue operations past 2030, after passing state government scrutiny last year following six years of assessments. And the planned 11.4mn t/yr Browse project hinges on NWS approvals being granted, with Woodside preferring a decision is made before Australia's elections in May, in which Green and other climate-conscious MPs may win a balance of power. O'Neill said the fully-priced engineering, procurement and construction contract with engineering firm Bechtel for the initial stage of its Louisiana LNG project was "differentiating" with other nearby proposed terminals requiring re-pricing, as Woodside aims to sell down 50pc of the terminal. Woodside will not take a final investment decision (FID) on Louisiana unless it is confident it has partners signed up or extremely close, O'Neill said, referencing the sale of 49pc of Pluto train 2 at FID before it later offloaded part of the Scarborough gas field that will supply the project. "I think there's potential for us to have the whole 50pc [target] sold-down by FID," O'Neill said, adding that "deep negotiations" were underway as the project aims for FID-readiness by 31 March. Woodside said it will cut expenditure on exploration and its New Energy division by $150mn to focus on producing assets. Exploration outlay was $342mn in 2024 and is guided at $200mn for 2025, while the savings from New Energy will mainly come from pausing its 60 t/d H2OK project in the US . In New Energy, Woodside will prioritise its 83pc complete, 1.1mn t/yr US Beaumont ammonia project ahead of first output in July-December and first low-carbon or blue ammonia using carbon capture and storage in the second half of 2026. Cost of production for phase 1 will be $260-$300/t, based on assumed costs after start-up from 2027-29 at 96pc uptime, a fixed/variable split of 70/30pc, a range of Henry hub gas pricing and the 45Q tax credit that grants $85/t of CO2 stored. Woodside made a profit of $3.57bn in 2024, up from $1.66bn for 2023 but below 2022's record of $6.5bn. It posted lower realised oil and gas prices of $63.6/bl of oil equivalent (boe) in 2024 from $68.6/boe in 2023, despite its output rising to 530,000 boe/d. The firm kept its 2025 guidance unchanged at 186mn-196mn boe (510,000-537,000 boe/d). Forecast capital expenditure of $4.5bn-5bn is focused on its 80pc complete Scarborough and 20pc complete Trion projects. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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