Base oils and waxes

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market

London, 18 December (Argus) — European base oil prices are likely to fall further in 2025 on a persistent global supply overhang of Group III material and weaker demand for Group I spot supplies. European Group III spot prices with varying approvals face downwards pressure as overseas producers target European buyers supported by attractive margins and ample spot supplies. Stricter emission standards and engine oil specifications have supported a switch towards more premium base oils such as Group II and III away from Group I production, which is in long-term decline. Prices for fca northwest Europe (NWE) Group III 4cst and 6cst supplies with partial or no approvals fell by 16pc and 13pc to €1,125/t and €1,185/t, respectively on the week ending 13 December 2024, the lowest levels since April 2021. Rising Chinese domestic Group III production capacity has slashed the country's requirements for supplies from South Korea and the Mideast Gulf, incentivising suppliers to look towards the European market. Buying appetite for tenders out of Bahrain has also increased and spot supplies have arrived at more competitive levels. This has spurred other suppliers to lower offers further as they look to remain competitive and claim market share before the conclusion of upcoming Group III refinery expansions in 2025. The Mideast Gulf has an estimated Group III production capacity of 2mn t/yr. This is set to increase with state-controlled Saudi Aramco's base oil subsidiary Luberef focusing on expansion projects at its Yanbu facility . This will increase nameplate capacity by 76.2pc, to approximately 1.3mn t/yr of base oils by 2025. Europe remains the most attractive export outlet owing to smaller Group III production capacity in comparison to other regions. Europe has an estimated nameplate base oil capacity of 7mn t/yr, of which 13pc is Group III. A shift away from Group III imports in the US has further supported Mideast and South Korean suppliers to redirect supplies from this region and towards Europe. An announcement by Shell to convert its hydrocracker at its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in west Germany into a Group III base oil production unit looks to increase domestic output by 300,000t/yr. But production is only anticipated to begin in 2026-2028, leaving European buyers mostly dependent on imports in 2025. European demand has plummeted thanks to amply supply levels — leading to a continuous wait-and-see approach from traders as they anticipate prices to fall further. Participants have reported term contracts finalised at price levels well below year ago levels and anticipate spot prices in 2025 to drop as a result. European Group I nameplate capacity has fallen by 55pc over the last decade to around 4mn t/yr owing to refinery closures, according to Argus calculations. In 2024, Eni's Group I 600,000 t/yr Livorno unit shut, and there were several refinery fires and outages elsewhere in Europe. But despite tighter spot supplies, prices fell because of weaker demand. Demand is anticipated to fall further in 2025 as producers prioritise output of more premium base oil. This includes Polish firm Orlen's Gdansk refinery expansion , adding a group II base oil unit with an estimated capacity of 400,000t/yr of Group II. Exxonmobil also announced that it will produce a high-viscosity Group II alternative to the Group I bright stock grade by 2025 out of its Jurong refinery in Singapore. Bright stock currently has no alternative, which supports its production. But Exxon's announcement is likely to weigh on refinery output and shrink the Group I market further. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.