LNG
Overview
LNG's role as a key feedstock is well established as it helps manage both input costs and carbon emissions. Heavy industrial users' drive to achieve net zero targets has added a new dimension to how and where it is being deployed. Overall, its use is expected to increase and is tipped to become the strongest-growing fossil fuel.
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IMO discussions on global GHG rules remain mixed
IMO discussions on global GHG rules remain mixed
London, 14 October (Argus) — Discussions on adopting binding global rules to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping began on Tuesday at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) London headquarters, with opening remarks pointing to mixed views. The net zero framework (NZF) will be debated at the IMO's second extraordinary Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) session, ahead of a vote on adoption later this week. The US delegation described the NZF, with a global GHG pricing mechanism structure that was approved in April , as a "global carbon tax", and said it is "unprecedented" for the IMO to administer such measures. The delegation also criticised the structure of the net zero fund, and said there is no mechanism for the IMO to hold such funds. The US delegation concluded by stating that it rejects any and all efforts to tax US vessels based on GHG emissions. A member of the US delegation told Argus that they cannot offer an alternative structure during this meeting, but that they are working on it. When asked what next steps would be for the US if adoption of the NZF goes ahead as is, the delegate said the US might explore "further avenues" and highlighted a significant time gap until the regulation is to come into force. A similar sentiment was echoed by nine other major oil-producing nations. The Saudi Arabian delegation said the NZF as it stands would only benefit some countries economically and therefore does not constitute "multilateralism or fair transition". This was echoed by delegates from Argentina and Iran, with the former saying the proposal should have a "fair geographic representation" and the latter raised concerns that ships under developing countries' flags lack the infrastructure to retrofit their existing vessels to alternative-fuelled ones. The Saudi delegate described the room as a "divided house". The delegate said the Saudi position is not the "abandonment" of the NZF, and reiterated its commitment to the 2023 objectives . The delegation also pointed to "negative consequences" associated with the NZF, namely that the shipping sector will transfer any extra costs to consumers — leading to inflation. Saudi Arabia's opening remarks were supported by the delegations from Russia, the UAE, Venezuela, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya and Somalia. Supporters' club Delegates showcased firm support for adopting the NZF from countries including the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Germany, Spain, Denmark, France, Sweden, Vanuatu, Tuvalu and others. A delegate from Germany said while the NZF is not what they wanted, it remains a fair compromise. IMO secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said in his opening remarks that he recognised some delegates may not find the NZF "climate ambitious enough", while others think it may be "overly stringent". But he said "prolonged uncertainty will put off investments and diminish confidence in IMO", and noted that "no specific fuel or technology has been excluded" from the NZF as compliance option. Seven shipping associations have IMO to adopt the NZF last week , and the EU called on Sunday for adoption. The adoption measure requires a two-thirds majority vote to pass. In the April vote on the GHG pricing mechanism structure under the net zero framework, 63 countries voted in favour, 16 opposed, and 24 abstained. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Gabriel Tassi Lara, and Natalia Coelho. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Varied biofuels, LNG key for net-zero: Marine Fuels 360
Varied biofuels, LNG key for net-zero: Marine Fuels 360
Singapore, 9 October (Argus) — Biofuels and liquefied natural gas (LNG) will likely be the most economical alternative marine fuels well into the 2030s, speakers at the Marine Fuels 360 conference in Singapore on 7 October said. But they also emphasised a need to adopt new biofuel feedstocks on top of current widely-used biodiesel or used cooking oil (UCO) methyl ester (Ucome), because Ucome supplies will likely prove insufficient with growing UCO feedstock demand from the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, which can usually pay higher as compared to the marine industry. "We expect biofuels supply to remain comfortable at least through 2028. If the IMO's Net-Zero Framework is adopted in October 2025 and applied from 2028, we would anticipate a step-up in demand," said Jesper Sørensen, global head of alternative fuels and carbon markets at bunker company KPI OceanConnect. Sørensen stressed the need to be open to other biofuel feedstocks in addition to UCO, because that alone will not meet future demand. This includes options like cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL), subject to additional refining and fit-for-use testing. Engine-maker guidance will also help scale these streams responsibly, he said. And while hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)'s higher price point will keep its use in shipping targeted, it is a direct replacement for distillate fuel and excellent where low-particulate matter engine performance is important — such as for ships travelling in colder climates that require low cold filter plugging point (CFPP) HVO, or in other sensitive operating conditions. "In practice, fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) does the mileage, whereas HVO covers the conditions," Sørensen said. Uncertain regulatory environment could limit demand The current uncertain regulatory environment makes it challenging for any long-term investments in alternative fuels for at least the next decade, but biofuels and LNG are fairly mature fuels and can be interim solutions, Captain Raghav Gulati, head of safety and technical operations at mining company Anglo American, said. Infrastructure is available, the industry is aware of the risks, and there are also certain standards in place to measure fuel quality, he added. LNG is already scaling with more supply coming into the market and new infrastructure being developed in different regions of the world, and has been historically commercially comparable to conventional fuel. That said, there are encouraging signs of companies working to secure demand. "From our estimates, roughly 80pc of biofuel demand in Singapore is fulfilled on term [contracts] this year, versus predominantly spot last year," Sørensen noted. Gulati also emphasised the need for costs of alternative marine fuels to be spread more evenly across the supply chain, with more passed on to end-users, for example. "Everyone feels the buck stops at the charterer, but that's not true — it's a bigger supply chain." Ethanol — the new alternative marine fuel on the block? Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, has been included in International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) International Code of Safety for Ships using Gases or other Low-flashpoint Fuels (IGF Code) since December 2020, Chris Chatterton, maritime advisor for the Global Centre for Green Fuels (GCGF) said. "Ethanol just hasn't been developed to its full potential yet," he added. "But now that there are nearly 100 vessels globally running on dual-fuel methanol technology, ethanol producers can consider supplying this additional demand as both fuels are completely miscible. The next step would be to co-combust methanol and ethanol with a tri-fuel engine, not just a dual-fuel one," Chatterton said. As of October, there are around 941 vessels globally which have been preliminarily scheduled to be retrofitted to use both methanol and ethanol, according to GCGF's estimates. Ethanol is already produced at scale globally, is around 25pc more energy dense than methanol, and slightly safer to handle, he noted. There is an emerging ISO standard for ethanol as a marine fuel too. With US and Brazil as key producers, ethanol's price is also relatively stable, which is important to shipowners — although demand from alcohol-to-jet SAF plants will also likely price the shipping sector out of the market, Chatterton told Argus on the sidelines of the conference. But overall, the panellists said biofuels and LNG are good stepwise solutions in the long decarbonisation journey. "This is a lifetime or century-long change we're looking at, and we cannot go from zero to 100 in a week. We need to move away from treating biofuels as an experimental fuel, and towards it as a practical and strong lever to navigate through regulatory burdens on the industry," Gulati said. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opinion: Foot on the gas
Opinion: Foot on the gas
Potential oversupply could be the biggest risk facing the global LNG market London, 8 October (Argus) — The supply gap that has opened up in the global gas market since Russian flows to Europe were largely cut, and the shift in favour of fossil fuels in the US following President Donald Trump's return to the White House, have contributed to a flurry of new LNG projects being approved this year so far. But the pace of final investment decisions (FIDs) is causing concerns among senior industry figures. The build-up of planned US LNG projects is accelerating "too quickly", TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said at the firm's 2025 strategy and outlook event last week, adding that he would be surprised if all planned projects find investors and term customers. The rapid buildout of LNG export capacity leading to potential oversupply is the "biggest risk facing the industry", he says. Pouyanne's comments echoed concerns voiced by other senior industry figures who have recently expressed surprise at the pace of investment decisions. Five US LNG projects have reached financial close this year, with the 13.5mn t/yr second phase of the Port Arthur LNG export terminal being the most recent addition just last month. Four more projects are targeting a financial close by the end of this year, including the 9.5mn t/yr Commonwealth LNG terminal, Glenfarne's 4mn t/yr Texas LNG project, the first floating unit at the 13mn t/yr Delfin LNG project and possibly the 16.5mn t/yr Lake Charles facility. The industry has seen this before. Price signals spur contracting activity that results in more investment in production, but the lag between those signals and new supply reaching the market often results in a mis-match between supply and demand, if not outright oversupply. Pouyanne was among the first to raise this issue as early as September 2023, when he projected the global LNG market could become oversupplied in 2028, even if demand grew at a sizeable 5pc/yr. Earlier that year, oil services firm Baker Hughes chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli said the current investment cycle could be more durable and less sensitive to commodity price swings than previous cycles. But the flurry of FIDs may have been to some extent delayed by political influences, particularly former US president Joe Biden's pause on the issuance of new LNG export permits, which had put the brakes on contracting activity for many projects. Liquefaction projects may have instead received a boost from the current US administration, with Pouyanne implying now that some developments have probably been influenced by political pressure on Asian countries that sign LNG deals as part of their tariff negotiations with the US. But two years on, global demand growth prospects have fallen well short of levels that could justify an LNG supercycle. Downstream demand in Europe shows little scope for a return to a durable growth pattern, even though the continent will undoubtedly remain dependent on seaborne supplies for the foreseeable future. Key Asian markets such as Japan and South Korea are bound to nuclear and coal-fired generation as key elements of their security of supply, which caps potential growth. And China, once hailed as the key source of incremental demand for the rest of the decade, has seen LNG import demand drop every month for nearly a year. Crucially, Beijing appears to be betting on more efficient coal-fired power rather than gas to complement rapidly rising renewable output. Of course, abundant supply may mean lower prices that would spur more consumption in many large markets, and lead to different policy or investment decisions. But in the meantime, large portfolio players such as TotalEnergies are likely keeping an eye on their margins, because of the potential for lower prices at key global benchmarks at the same time as the US market appears poised for a much tighter balance — with the projected increase in feedgas demand far outstripping forecasts of domestic production growth. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European LNG sendout at monthly high in Sep
European LNG sendout at monthly high in Sep
London, 7 October (Argus) — Regasification across European terminals last month was the highest for any September, but sendout could step down in October. Aggregate sendout across all European terminals averaged 3.9 TWh/d in September, the highest ever for the month and substantially above a three-year average of 3.1 TWh/d. Sendout was also significantly higher than the 3.2 TWh/d regasified in August ( see graph ). Europe imported 8.7mn t of LNG in September, equal to 11.2bn m³ of pipeline gas, according to ship tracking data from Kpler. This is up strongly from 6.4mn t, or 8.2bn m³ of pipeline gas equivalent, a year earlier and a three-year average of 6.2mn t or 8bn m³. Ongoing storage injections needs in Europe drove global LNG demand last month, as temperatures across the northern hemisphere fell from their summer high point but remained high enough to prevent substantial heating. Asian LNG demand continued to be subdued, keeping the inter-basin arbitrage for US fob cargoes firmly shut for September deliveries, supporting quick shipments to Europe. LNG sendout in Europe helped to make up for lower pipeline gas deliveries to the continent last month, because seasonal maintenance at Norwegian upstream assets and the Algeria-Spain Medgaz pipeline took place at the same time. Imports from the US doubled to 5.1mn t last month from 2.5mn t a year earlier, as the ramp-up of production at the Plaquemines facility brought US LNG exports to an all-time record high last month. Russia was the second-largest LNG exporter to Europe last month, having delivered 784,000t, followed by Algeria and Qatar at 747,000t and 655,000t, respectively. The Netherlands continued to be the largest European LNG importer in September at 1.6mn t, followed by France with 1.4mn t and Italy with 1.3mn t. LNG deliveries to Italy surged to the second-highest monthly aggregate ever after a 30-day downtime at the 7.5mn t/yr Adriatic LNG terminal significantly cut deliveries in August. Deliveries may step down in October Growing competition from Asia and downtime at several German import terminals could cause LNG deliveries to Europe in October to fall on the month. Declining LNG delivered prices in Asia have sparked interest for spot cargoes among price-sensitive buyers in Asia, which could entice uncommitted Atlantic supply away from Europe, traders told Argus . The front-month ANEA price dropped to a 17-month low of $10.45/mn Btu on 2 October. The price has increased in recent days, closing at $10.96/mn Btu on 6 October, but still holding lower than $11.25/mn Btu a month earlier. And weaker import capacity in Germany could further weigh on European LNG imports this month as several import terminals are scheduled to be off line for maintenance. Germany's Brunsbuttel terminal is due to shut down for the whole of October, while sendout capacity from Wilhelmshaven 1 and 2 will fall to zero on 6-10 October and 11-23 October, respectively. Combined, the maintenance means up to 6.91TWh of lost sendout for October, equivalent to six to seven LNG cargoes if those slots would have otherwise been fully used. That said, cargoes could be redirected to other terminals. The northwest Europe delivered price for October delivery closed at an ample 65¢/mn Btu discount to the TTF, which prices in more expensive European facilities. By Isabel Valverde Average monthly LNG sendout across European terminals GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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