Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
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- Daily and weekly nitrogen price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
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Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Viewpoint: Australia’s urea outlook steady for 2026
Viewpoint: Australia’s urea outlook steady for 2026
Sydney, 2 January (Argus) — Australia's urea imports in 2026 are likely to maintain the record levels of recent years, as forecasts for favourable weather conditions support strong cropping demand. But low affordability levels among growers could weigh on import demand. Australia's urea imports are likely to have reached 3.8mn t in 2025, about 5pc below 2024 but 15pc higher than in 2023, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and vessel tracking data from Kpler. Australian fertilizer importers told Argus they juggle a range of factors when deciding purchase volumes. Considerations include seasonal conditions, fertilizer affordability and crop outlooks, all of which differ across growing regions. Fertilizer affordability stays low Fertilizer affordability will be a key determinant of import demand. Global fertilizer affordability reached a three-year low in July 2025 but has recovered in recent months . Global nutrient affordability stood at 0.72 points in October, up from 0.69 in September and 0.61 in August, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. Australian granular urea was assessed at A$760-770/t fca Geelong on 18 December. Granular urea had reached A$900/t fca Geelong on 4 September, a 21pc increase from A$745/t fca Geelong on 3 January 2025. Fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar will act as a buffer or hurdle to fertilizer affordability. The Australian dollar approached a 2025-high of $0.67 to the US dollar at the end of December, which has dampened fertilizer import costs. If the dollar should fall sharply, as happened in April when it dropped to $0.59, this could weigh on fertilizer affordability and temper imports. Growers' returns from their crops will be weighed down by global oversupply, given near record production levels of key crops such as wheat, feed alternatives and canola from global producers. The lack of any supply shock, major geopolitical risks and fading demand from major importers — particularly China — have led to subdued prices for wheat, squeezing farmer margins and potential returns from fertilizer applications. Fertilizer affordability has not eased enough for there to be a spike in demand but has improved enough to support steady imports from previous years. Average crop, weather forecasts Urea imports during the October-September marketing year tend to move in step with Australia's crop outlook (see graph). Favourable seasonal conditions and crop development will support fertilizer application to improve yields, and in turn, domestic fertilizer purchases. If current soil moisture levels are maintained until the autumn months of March-May, this could support crop area intentions and plantings and, in turn, urea imports. But long-term weather outlooks are unreliable and treated with caution by some importers, Argus understands. Planting conditions and crop allocation could be influenced by seasonal conditions in coming months. Most of Australia's cropping regions have an even chance of exceeding median rainfall in January-March 2026, Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) data show. Australia's crop winter crop outlook will partially depend on planting conditions during April-June. Urea application times differ from year to year based on rainfall patterns and the crop type, but most urea is applied from February to July for pre-planting and topdressing (see graph). South Australia's expected rainfall in January-March is less favourable, showing a less than 45pc chance of exceeding median rainfall in growing regions. Queensland and New South Wales growing regions have a 40-65pc chance of exceeding median rainfall, while Western Australia has a 45-55pc chance, BoM data show . The weather and soil moisture outlooks similarly suggest steady imports from previous years, but less chance of an increase from 2024 and 2025 levels. By Susannah Cornford and Edward Dunlop Australia urea and winter crop output '000 t Australia urea import seasonality t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Sulfur costs to support amsul prices in 2026
Viewpoint: Sulfur costs to support amsul prices in 2026
Houston, 30 December (Argus) — Ammonium sulfate prices appear primed to rise in the first half of 2026, supported by rising feedstock costs and tight global supply. Persistent supply constraints in Europe coupled with elevated feedstock costs are adding upward pressure on amsul prices that is unlikely to ease soon. Ammonia and sulfur, key inputs for amsul production, are hovering near multi-year highs. Buyers and sellers project the first-quarter Tampa sulfur contract to rise to $475-520/long tonne (lt) delivered, from $310/lt del, which could increase amsul production costs by roughly $40-50/st or more depending on the grade. Initial fourth-quarter domestic amsul offers in the US Corn Belt were about $20-25/st higher than the same period last year. Some producers, who held back on releasing offers, are now quoting prices roughly $40-50/st above last year's initial fourth-quarter offer levels. At the same time, ammonia prices are up about $90/t cfr year over year, and sulfur costs have surged by nearly $194/lt del. The increase in amsul offers sparked more buying as customers sought to secure product ahead of further price hikes anticipated in the first quarter of 2026. Major amsul producer IOC shut down operations due to surging feedstock costs but restarted production earlier this month. Similar pressures could affect domestic caprolactam producers as high sulfur costs ripple through the nylon value chain. Sulfuric acid is a critical input for caprolactam, and with margins already thin, further cost inflation could prompt producers to adjust operating rates. The US tariff exemptions on amsul , among most other fertilizers, announced in early November had little impact on prices because European producers faced tight granular supply and could not ramp up exports even though economics to the US have improved. The US imported around 1.2mn t of amsul in the 2024-25 fertilizer year, with around 48pc of total imports coming from the European Union, according to the US Census Bureau. Low caprolactam margins in the EU made amsul production less profitable, compounded by planned and unplanned outages, while Chinese material rapidly gained share in Europe's domestic market. However, carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) costs could slow Chinese imports into Europe, giving regional producers a chance to regain domestic market share. On ammonia, another key feedstock for certain amsul producers like IOC and Martin Resources in the US, the January Tampa contract settled at $585/t cfr. Most US ammonia prices eased after fall applications dwindled. Still, ammonia could remain tight due to production outages in the third and fourth quarters that left some producers struggling to meet commitments as demand for applications spike in the first half of November. Affordability remains front of mind as growers navigate high input costs and narrow crop margins from the past fertilizer season, prompting a cautious and risk-averse approach to fertilizer purchases. President Donald Trump's farmer aid package eased some financial pressures on growers and has supported more fertilizer spending, especially with the US Department of Agriculture projecting strong corn acreage for the coming season. Market participants attest that feedstock volatility and supply constraints continue to shape the amsul market going into 2026. As spring demand returns, offers are expected to incorporate higher production costs from elevated sulfur prices, paving the way for bullishness in the amsul market headed into the new year. By Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: CBAM could draw nitrogen exports from the US
Viewpoint: CBAM could draw nitrogen exports from the US
Houston, 29 December (Argus) — US nitrogen producer CF Industries will have greater incentive to export nitrogen products to the EU once the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into effect in 2026. The degree to which CF can capitalize on CBAM is still unknown, but the company has expressed a desire to do so. "Based on our conversation with customers, we also believe CBAM will drive significant demand for other low-carbon nitrogen products, such as UAN," said Bert Frost, CF executive vice president of sales. "We feel very confident in our competitive position," he added. The EU revised the default CBAM emissions value for US ammonia to 3.41 metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), up from 2t of CO2e, according to preliminary documents, to the confusion of many traders across nitrogen markets. The new US default emissions values are based on ammonia produced using petroleum coke as a feedstock rather than natural gas like most nitrogen plants in the US. CBAM has assigned countries punitive default emissions values to motivate producers to verify their individual emissions with CBAM. In addition to using natural gas, CF's Donaldsonville facility in Louisiana, the largest nitrogen plant in the world, can capture its emissions for enhanced oil recovery and will sequester its carbon once its partner ExxonMobil acquires a class VI permit. If CF can successfully reduce its emissions at Donaldsonville and verify them with the EU, the carbon price paid by EU importers for nitrogen products from the plant would be much lower than the emissions tax paid when importing from other origins . That could create new export markets for the US producer across the EU, potentially tightening nitrogen markets throughout North America and altering global trade flows. Importers of urea from Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt into the EU would pay $52-57/t ($47-52/st) under CBAM in 2026, based on the 29 December EU ETS prompt price of $100.26/t. Donaldsonville would only have to verify a urea emission value 62pc below the default value of 2.31t of CO2e — also based on a petroleum coke feedstock — to bring the carbon charge paid by an EU buyer to zero, based on Argus calculations. Donaldsonville's competitive advantage could provide CF with an outlet for its nitrogen fertilizers during the summer and fall off-season or allow the producer to pit US buyers against the EU when US markets get more active. Similar to urea, CF would have to bring its default emission values for UAN down by 65pc from 1.76/t of CO2e to bring the carbon charge paid by importers to zero for 2026. The default carbon charge paid by importers of UAN from Trinidad & Tobago and Russia ranges from $82-104/t ($74-94/st). But again, producers in other countries may also verify carbon emissions lower than the default CBAM values. Ammonium nitrate has the highest carbon price associated with it under CBAM on a per unit nitrogen basis compared with urea and ammonia because of the carbon intensity of nitric acid production. Therefore UAN — in which nitrate is a primary feedstock — from Donaldsonville will have the largest competitive advantage of the facilities' products under CBAM. The Louisiana plant does not produce granular nitrate. How much urea or UAN CF can export will depend on how much ammonia it will have leftover for upgrades. CF says it can sequester 2mn t/yr of CO2e in its partnership with ExxonMobil and produce 1.9mn t/yr of "low carbon ammonia" from its Donaldsonville plant. That would account for half of Donaldsonville's gross ammonia capacity of 3.84mn t/yr. But the carbon intensity of its "low carbon ammonia" has not been disclosed, making it difficult to calculate the facilities' exact competitive advantage over other exporters to the EU. CF did not respond to requests for comment on the emissions from Donaldsonville ammonia and upgrades, or the "low-carbon ammonia" it plans to manufacture. CF shipped its first cargo of blue ammonia to Europe in October as part of a contract. The cargo had a "significantly lower well-to-gate carbon footprint than conventional natural gas-based ammonia production", the company said. CF reported its scope 1 emissions per metric tonne of ammonia at 2.11t of CO2e for 2024 across its facilities, already much lower than the default 3.41t. But that number includes emissions from upgrade units for urea and nitric acid, among others, meaning CF's emissions from a ton of ammonia before carbon capture were lower than 2.11t. CF also already has N2O abatement technology installed at a third of its nitrate units across its production sites, the company said. By Calder Jett Theoretical CBAM default charges for urea and UAN CBAM default emissions value t CO2e/t product Projected CBAM default charge $/t * CBAM default charge per tonne of nitrogen $ ** Urea (46pc nitrogen) US 2.3129 $143.72 $3.12 Egypt 1.4039 $52.58 $1.14 Algeria 1.4241 $54.61 $1.19 UAN (30pc nitrogen) US 1.7574 $115.10 $3.84 Russia 1.6463 $103.96 $3.47 Trinidad & Tobago 1.4342 $82.70 $2.76 *based on ETS prompt price of $100.26/t on 29 December; **nitrogen content of products can vary depending on plant — European Commission documents, Argus prices, Argus calculations Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Expanding US ammonia output weighs on prices
Viewpoint: Expanding US ammonia output weighs on prices
Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Fresh ammonia production in the US Gulf coast will support domestic demand during the spring and could impact global pricing, with new output likely creating a surplus during the first quarter of 2026. In Texas City, Texas, the 1.2mn metric tonne (t)/yr Gulf Coast Ammonia (GCA) plant began increasing production in November and loaded a cargo, setting soft expectations that the facility will be ready for commercial operations in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Woodside Energy's 1.1mn t/yr facility in Beaumont, Texas, is expected to ramp up output before the end of 2025 and begin commercial output in early 2026. The supply expansion could keep domestic prices in check, despite historically elevated corn acreage expectations for spring 2026 and the continued outage at Canada-based fertilizer producer Nutrien's Trinidad plant. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast of 95mn acres of corn to be planted this spring was on the high end of market expectations, which will support domestic nitrogen fertilizer use. That is down by about 5pc from 2025/2026 corn acreage, which the USDA estimated at 98.7mn acres, but up from 91.5mn acres in 2024/2025. The potential for expanding output has already begun to apply pressure on ammonia prices. The December Tampa settlement was unchanged from November at $650/t cfr Tampa, marking the end of five consecutive monthly increases since the June settlement. Despite no formal update from Nutrien regarding output from its 2.2mn t/yr facility in Trinidad, ammonia markets west of the Suez Canal are already facing pressure from a lull in demand from importers. In addition to new production coming online, there are concerns in the market that the new European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could erode US export viability in the near-term. The European Commission revised US producers' default emissions value in early December, raising the value from 2t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) to 3.41t CO2e due to two inland plants utilizing petroleum coke as a feedstock rather than natural gas. The increased base CO2e value could make importers hesitant to accept US ammonia in the near-term. But with revisions and possible delays to the implementation of CBAM regulations, the overall impact to US ammonia exports remains unclear. Producers in the US Gulf coast have exported more than 1.1mn t so far in 2025, according to Argus data, with that total expected to increase in 2026 with the new capacity coming online. By Chris Mullins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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