Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
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- Daily and weekly nitrogen price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
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Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Lowest urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC to India’s IPL
Lowest urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC to India’s IPL
Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — The lowest offers to Indian importer IPL under its 20 November urea tender have emerged at $418.40/t cfr east coast and $419.90/t cfr west coast. Both of the lowest offers are from trading firm Agrifields, which offered 40,000t to the east coast and 45,000t to the west coast.Direct confirmation with Agrifields was not available. A full list of offers and volumes will follow in due course. IPL is seeking 2.5mn t of prilled and granular urea to be loaded by 15 January 2026. By Dinise Chng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global fertilizer affordability recovers some ground
Global fertilizer affordability recovers some ground
London, 19 November (Argus) — Global fertilizer affordability remains weak at levels similar to those of September 2022, but has recovered slightly from a more than three-year low in August because of a fall in fertilizer prices. Nutrient affordability stood at 0.72 points in October, up from 0.69 in September and 0.61 in August, when it dropped to its lowest since April 2022, Argus data show. Global fertilizer affordability had been on a downward trend since January. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The fertilizer index in October crept up to just below June's levels at 0.74 points, driven by falling urea, phosphates and potash prices. But the crop index — which includes global prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans adjusted by output volumes — resumed its downward trend in October, having gained some ground in September, and crop prices are now as low as those of November 2019. Urea price falls were the heaviest in recent months, with fob Middle East prices in October down by over $100/t from recent highs in August, when they averaged just over $500/t fob. Prices fell as buyers hesitated in the face of renewed Chinese exports, which outweighed strong import demand from India. Most market participants remained cautious into October, largely because of the lack of clarity on potential fresh exports from China. But prices received support from the end of October onwards, driven by a flurry of buying in Europe ahead of the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on 1 January. Phosphate prices began to decline earlier. Moroccan DAP export prices have now shed $93/t at the midpoint from a peak in early August averaging just under $800/t fob, their highest since October 2022. The seasonal decline in global demand going into the fourth quarter coupled with higher DAP inventories in key destination markets — notably India — and wide-ranging affordability concerns pressured prices. Brazilian buyers turned to more affordable NPs and superphosphates ahead of soybean applications, fostering a surplus of MAP that similarly weighed on prices. Potash prices have experienced a milder decline, dropping by only $6/t since hitting a 28-month high in August at $314/t. MOP demand has slowed in most major importing markets since July, with ample inventories likely to be able to cover the majority of demand for the rest of 2025. By Elena Mataro Global fertilizer affordability index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU CBAM draft sets dual methods for free allowances
EU CBAM draft sets dual methods for free allowances
London, 18 November (Argus) — Free allocations under the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will be calculated using two distinct methodologies, a draft of the implementing regulation seen by Argus shows. The draft, which may change before its adoption by the end of the year , also details provisional benchmark values, leaving the key ammonia value unchanged. The documents give insights into how a major component needed to calculate costs under the mechanism, which will come into effect on 1 January, will likely look. They follow similar drafts emerging last week on the CBAM pricing methodology . The commission has also scheduled 10 December for presenting additional legislation, aimed at strengthening CBAM, tackling circumvention, resource-shuffling, expanding CBAM scope and protecting exports of CBAM goods. CBAM costs for imported fertilizers to the EU will be calculated by subtracting free allowances from actual emissions, or default values if no actual data is available. Free allowances will decrease between 2026 and 2034, in line with the free-allowance phase-out for European producers under the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS). The draft defines two main ways of calculating free allowances: one where actual emissions are known, and one where default values are used as the basis of calculating CBAM costs. The free allowance calculation for ‘simple goods', such as ammonia, is nearly unchanged on previous expectations. It is based on the CBAM factor — at 97.5pc for 2026 — a cross-sectoral correction factor as known from the ETS, and the benchmark value. The EU has left unchanged the provisional benchmark for ammonia at 1.57 t CO2e/t, and the same value applies for calculations using actual and default emissions. The provisional benchmark for nitric acid has also stayed at 0.23t CO2e/t when calculating free allowances for actual emissions data. Calculating free allowances for complex goods — which are made from other goods, so-called precursors — requires more variables. The calculation for free allowances should reflect the production process, according to the drafts. On top of the variables for simple goods, the calculation also considers emissions from precursors, for which the draft suggests full-year consumption data and activity levels need to be calculated. The methodologies for these components are not yet known. The draft normally foresees a presumption complex good precursors were produced during the reporting period, and no periods from before 2026 can be considered. If this calculation is adopted in a similar format by the commission, this may add additional complications for importers trying to estimate CBAM costs from 2026. For calculating actual emissions of a complex good, a series of products can be considered as precursors, namely anhydrous ammonia, nitric acid, NOP, urea, amsul, AN, DAP and MAP. If producers do not report actual emissions, then free allocations will be calculated using default benchmark values. The draft calculations foresee the inclusion of the CBAM factor, as well as the cross-sectoral correction factor, alongside these benchmarks. The provisional benchmark values for the default calculation can be found in the table below. By Claudia Wlk Provisional CBAM benchmarks for selected products t CO2/t CN code Product Process-related CBAM benchmark* Default benchmark** Nitrogen 2808 Nitric acid 0.230 0.674 28141 Anhydrous ammonia 1.570 1.570 28142 Ammonia in aqueous solution 0.471 0.471 283421 NOP 0.028 0.706 31021019 Urea 0.025 0.301 310221 Amsul 0.033 0.438 310229 ASN 0.028 0.624 31023090 AN 0.028 0.856 310240 CAN 0.028 0.775 310280 UAN 0.000 0.344 Phosphates and NPKs 31052010 NPK (>10pc N) 0.137 0.520 31052090 NPK (<10pc N) 0.137 0.393 310530 DAP 0.009 0.353 310540 MAP 0.009 0.182 310551 NP (nitrate) 0.137 0.648 310559 NP (excl. nitrate) 0.009 0.414 * Process-related benchmarks are used to calculate free allowances when actual data are available; these can be either for simple (e.g. for ammonia) or complex goods (e.g. for goods using ammonia as a feedstock). For complex goods, precursor emissions are also used. ** Default benchmarks are used to calculate free allowances when no actual emissions data are available. - EU Commission draft Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
US lifts tariffs on most fertilizer imports: Update
Adds detail on the lack of full exemption status for ammonia and recent Nola urea futures trade Houston, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said today key nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, among other agricultural products , are exempt from US import tariffs that were implemented in April, but ammonia's status under the tariff modification remains unclear. After just seven months in place, tariffs that have curbed imports to US shores and elevated the price of fertilizers have been lifted, according to a modification to Executive Order 14257 issued by the White House today. Fertilizers exempted from the tariffs include urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP and MAP. Ammonia could qualify for tariff exemptions, but eligibility will be determined on a case-by-case basis by the secretary of commerce and the US Trade Representative, depending on the terms of existing or ongoing trade negotiations with each country. Potassium fertilizers like MOP were already exempt from import tariffs. The modification to the tariffs went into effect for goods imported starting 13 November. January Nola urea futures traded down roughly $30/st late Friday afternoon to $360/st fob following the announcement, but otherwise activity was largely subdued given the modifications' proximity to the weekend. Fertilizer values will likely begin to price-in the change in trade policy starting Monday. Most fertilizer exporting countries, except for Russia , faced tariff rates of 10-15pc, with some suppliers even facing up to 30pc tariffs, resulting in major shifts in fertilizer trade. Exporters have avoided the US, favoring alternative destinations for their supply. But trade flows could normalize now that fertilizers are now tariff-free. The tariffs have contributed to eroding fertilizer affordability relative to crop prices in the US this year, driving fertilizer prices to multi-year highs and significantly curbing demand for nutrients across the country. Lower cost imports could help unwind farmer reluctance to enter the market leading up to the spring season in 2026. The announcement should provide importers and distributors with some certainty headed into next spring after months of being kept on edge by shifting US trade policy. By Calder Jett and Sneha Kumar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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