Nitrogen
Overview
The ease of urea availability east and west of Suez has shaped the current trade flows of this key nitrogen fertilizer. Despite challenges posed by energy prices and military conflicts, key import markets such as India, Australia, and Latin America remain robust. But structural oversupply and the role of China as a swing exporter have led to price volatility as this fast-moving market seeks equilibrium, more so during seasonally high-demand periods.
Our extensive nitrogen coverage includes prilled and granular urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulphate. Argus has many decades of experience covering the nitrogen market and incorporates our multi-commodity market expertise in key areas including ammonia and natural gas to provide the full market narrative.
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- Daily and weekly nitrogen price assessments, proprietary data and market commentary
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of urea prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
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Latest nitrogen news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global nitrogen industry.
Falling gas price boosts Europe nitrogen margins
Falling gas price boosts Europe nitrogen margins
Amsterdam, 24 November (Argus) — Front-month gas futures in Europe dropped by as much as 3pc today, which is supporting nitrogen fertilizer producer margins at a time of elevated urea and nitrate prices, continuing a trend which emerged earlier this year. The December contract for natural gas at the Dutch TTF hub, listed on Ice, fell to as low as €29.2/MWh today, below the previous lowest close of €29.3/MWh on 23 February 2024. Gas prices in Europe have fallen further following the latest US-driven push for a deal between Russia and Ukraine, which is weighing on major energy markets. The US and Ukraine have made "significant progress" in talks about a peace deal that can be presented to Russia, the EU said today. Gas costs for ammonia, the key feedstock for urea and nitrate fertilizers, dropped to as low as $355/t, accounting for gas consumption of 36mn Btu/t of ammonia at €29.2/MWh. That cost is $71/t below costs of $426/t three months ago, when the TTF contract was €35/MWh. The costs are calculated and do not account for processing or other ancillary costs. The falling gas prices at the TTF this year have brought implied European nitrogen margins back up in line with typical levels before the conflict. European nitrogen producers had been buffeted by spiking natural gas prices in the years after the Russia-Ukraine conflict started in 2022, causing operating rates to drop as some producers idled loss-making facilities. But the fall in gas prices and jump in nitrogen levels has lifted producer margins this year. A basket of European products — the average of granular urea fca French Atlantic, UAN 30 fca Rouen and CAN 27 cif inland Germany — hit €11.76/t of nitrogen last week on 20 November, the highest since early 2023. Nitrogen fertilizer prices in Europe have jumped in the past month as importers scrambled to secure products for arrival and customs clearance ahead of the implementation of CBAM legislation and added carbon costs in January . Urea prices out of Egypt, one of the key sources of duty-free product for European buyers, hit $507/t fob on 6 November, before the surging levels began to pull in more atypical origins to the European Union, with importers lining up product granular urea from Oman, Nigeria and China. European prices have also been supported by the bloc's imposition of a €40/t tariff on imports of Russian nitrogen products since 1 July . The ratio between the basket of European nitrogen prices against the TTF day-ahead price hit 0.38:1 on 20 November, marking the highest level this year. The ratio last consistently surpassed this level in the first half of 2021. The ratio averaged 0.27:1 in 2024 and 0.26:1 in 2023. Improving margins for European producers has been a largely consistent trend through the year so far. Norwegian fertilizer major Yara posted a 7.4pc return on invested capital (ROIC) for its European segment in the third quarter of this year, up from 2.1pc a year earlier and -0.6pc for the whole of 2024. The ROIC for the firm's European unit dropped to as low as -33.5pc in the second quarter of 2023 ( see chart ). By Harry Minihan Ratio of Europe nitrogen products vs TTF day-ahead European nitrogen products and TTF day-ahead Yara Europe, return on invested capital % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IPL tender urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC: Update
IPL tender urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC: Update
Adds full list of offers, netbacks Amsterdam, 20 November (Argus) — The lowest offers to Indian importer IPL under its 20 November urea tender have emerged at $418.40/t cfr east coast and $419.90/t cfr west coast. Both of the lowest offers are from trading firm Agrifields, which offered 40,000t to the east coast and 45,000t to the west coast. The next highest offers were around $425/t cfr east coast and $423/t cfr west coast. Direct confirmation with Agrifields was not available. A full list of offers and volumes is in the table below. Netbacks from the most competitive offers are below previous market levels, with the east coast reflecting the mid $390s/t fob China and the low $390s/t fob southeast Asia. Netbacks from the west coast are around $405-407/t fob Middle East and $355-360/t fob Baltic. Offers totalled 2.26mn t to the east coast and 2.46mn t to the west coast, but actual availability will be lower taking into account the usual double- and triple-counting of cargoes. IPL is seeking 2.5mn t of prilled and granular urea to be loaded by 15 January 2026. By Harry Minihan IPL urea tender offers 20 November 2025 Supplier East coast quantities ('t) Price ($/t cfr east coast) Supplier West coast quantities ('t) Price ($/t cfr west coast) Agrifields 40,000 418.40 Agrifields 45,000 419.90 Valency 45,000 424. 98 ABGT 250,000 423.20 Quest 100,000 429.00 Koch 47,700 427.00 ABGT 300,000 429.60 Sun International 37,000 428.95 OQ 50,000 429. 99 Quest 100,000 429.00 ETG 120,000 430.40 Keytrade 47,000 429.74 Ameropa 92,150 432.50 ETG 180,000 429.95 Koch 87,700 433.00 Continental 50,000 430.20 Continental 150,000 433.10 OQ 250,000 430.35 Trammo 45,000 433.50 Trammo 45,000 430.50 Indorama 45,000 433.75 Indagro 92,000 432.75 Midgulf 300,000 433.75 Sabic 125,000 433.00 Sun International 80,000 433. 95 Indorama 45,000 433.50 Indagro 77,000 434.75 Ameropa 92,150 435.00 Hexagon 150,000 434.79 Comet 45,000 435.00 Comet 50,000 435.00 Hexagon 150,000 435.19 Samsung 95,000 436.39 Midgulf 300,000 436.75 Keytrade 47,000 442.00 Samsung 90,000 438.00 Fertistream 45,000 445.00 Fertistream 45,000 440.00 Macrosource 45,000 445.75 Fertiglobe 135,000 441.00 Fertiglobe 150,000 446.00 Macrosource 45,000 446.25 Dreymoor 150,000 455.00 Saftco 40,000 447.00 Fertcom 50,000 449.00 Dreymoor 150,000 451.00 Sub-total 2,263,850 2,455,850 — Market sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Lowest urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC to India’s IPL
Lowest urea offer at $418.40/t cfr EC to India’s IPL
Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — The lowest offers to Indian importer IPL under its 20 November urea tender have emerged at $418.40/t cfr east coast and $419.90/t cfr west coast. Both of the lowest offers are from trading firm Agrifields, which offered 40,000t to the east coast and 45,000t to the west coast.Direct confirmation with Agrifields was not available. A full list of offers and volumes will follow in due course. IPL is seeking 2.5mn t of prilled and granular urea to be loaded by 15 January 2026. By Dinise Chng Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global fertilizer affordability recovers some ground
Global fertilizer affordability recovers some ground
London, 19 November (Argus) — Global fertilizer affordability remains weak at levels similar to those of September 2022, but has recovered slightly from a more than three-year low in August because of a fall in fertilizer prices. Nutrient affordability stood at 0.72 points in October, up from 0.69 in September and 0.61 in August, when it dropped to its lowest since April 2022, Argus data show. Global fertilizer affordability had been on a downward trend since January. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The fertilizer index in October crept up to just below June's levels at 0.74 points, driven by falling urea, phosphates and potash prices. But the crop index — which includes global prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans adjusted by output volumes — resumed its downward trend in October, having gained some ground in September, and crop prices are now as low as those of November 2019. Urea price falls were the heaviest in recent months, with fob Middle East prices in October down by over $100/t from recent highs in August, when they averaged just over $500/t fob. Prices fell as buyers hesitated in the face of renewed Chinese exports, which outweighed strong import demand from India. Most market participants remained cautious into October, largely because of the lack of clarity on potential fresh exports from China. But prices received support from the end of October onwards, driven by a flurry of buying in Europe ahead of the implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on 1 January. Phosphate prices began to decline earlier. Moroccan DAP export prices have now shed $93/t at the midpoint from a peak in early August averaging just under $800/t fob, their highest since October 2022. The seasonal decline in global demand going into the fourth quarter coupled with higher DAP inventories in key destination markets — notably India — and wide-ranging affordability concerns pressured prices. Brazilian buyers turned to more affordable NPs and superphosphates ahead of soybean applications, fostering a surplus of MAP that similarly weighed on prices. Potash prices have experienced a milder decline, dropping by only $6/t since hitting a 28-month high in August at $314/t. MOP demand has slowed in most major importing markets since July, with ample inventories likely to be able to cover the majority of demand for the rest of 2025. By Elena Mataro Global fertilizer affordability index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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