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My name is Jade Delafraye and I am the head of the global agriculture team at Argus. My colleague Nathalia Giannetti joins me today to discuss the launching of new corn port differentials for the Brazilian ports of Barcarena and Itaqui.
These prices are published daily in the Argus AgriMarkets report, which focuses on global grains, oilseeds, and vegoil markets. Our fundamentals forecasts and balance sheets are presented in our AgriMarkets Outlook service on a weekly and monthly basis.
So, let’s get to it. Nathalia, my first question to you is: Why is the assessment of port differentials in the Barcarena and Itaqui ports so important? And welcome!
Thank you, Jade! So to answer your question, Brazil is the world’s third-largest corn producer and second-largest exporter.
As Brazil represents an important share of the international corn market, Argus has been publishing prices for the Santos/Tubarão market since 2020. The Santos port is the largest Brazilian port and accounted for half of the volumes exported nationally when prices were first published.
But in recent years, the region known as the Northern Arc has grown exponentially and exported more corn than Santos since 2022. It covers ports or transshipment points in the states of Amapá, Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia and Maranhão. The largest ports there are the Itaqui port, in Maranhão, and the Barcarena port, in Pará.
Itaqui and Barcarena alone account for more than half of the corn shipments in the Northern Arc.
The Santos, Barcarena and Itaqui ports account for approximately 60pc of Brazilian corn exports. So monitoring these port differentials brings a more complete view of the negotiations in the Brazilian export market.
Argus publishes prices for the July to January settlements in the Santos/Tubarão cargo market, which corresponds to the window for Brazilian corn exports. For the Barcarena/Itaqui cargo market, prices are published for the August and September settlements, which is when exports peak.
I see... What is the reason for this growth in the Northern Arc?
Well, Jade, a great advantage of the Northern Arc ports is their proximity to the Brazil central-western region – which is the main corn-producing hub in Brazil and home to Mato Grosso state.
Mato Grosso is the largest corn producer in the country and accounted for around 38 percent of the national crop in the last five years.
This proximity between the Northern Arc ports and this important region shortens transportation time and logistical costs to the export market.
Thanks for explaining that, Nathalia. Does the distance between Northern Arc ports and buyers also play a role in this?
It does, Jade. Their location is also strategic for shipping corn to Europe and Africa. Countries from these two continents, such as Spain, Algeria, Egypt and Morocco, are important buyers of Brazilian corn.
In 2024, Egypt received 14pc of Brazilian corn shipments, according to national association of cereal exporters Anec. This equates to a record 5.3 million metric tonnes, making Egypt the country with the highest share of shipments in the year. Itaqui and Barcarena accounted for more than 65 percent of the volumes received by Egypt last year.
Interesting, Nathalia! I imagine that the Santos port you mentioned earlier also has some of these advantages.
That’s correct, Jade. It is important to note that the Santos port is the largest in Brazil and has accounted for half of the corn volumes exported nationally. Currently, its share has fallen to at least 37pc on the year. But the Santos port remains the port with the highest share in national shipments as the Northern Arc has four major ports for corn exports.
The Santos port is the southeast, which borders the center-west. So, this proximity with the largest grain producer is a key factor for the relevance of the Santos port.
Southeastern and southern ports are also the best option for shipments to Asia, because of a shorter sea route to the continent.
China, Vietnam, Iran, Japan and South Korea are some of the main buyers of Brazilian corn. These countries together account for 46 percent of volumes purchased by the international market since 2022.
And China has joined this ranking quite recently, no?
Exactly, Jade. China and Brazil signed in 2022 a sanitary agreement that authorized Brazilian corn shipments to China.
China jumped from no share to 31 percent of Brazilian corn exports in 2023. But volumes fell to 6pc in 2024.
What about 2025? Is Chinese demand for Brazilian set to grow once again?
It is difficult to know what are China’s next steps. But some market participants expect shipments to intensify with the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, which may change the trade flows between the US and China. Brazil would be the top alternative for corn purchases, alongside Argentina.
I see. Are there any projections yet for Brazil’s corn exports in 2025?
As of now, Brazil should export less corn in this crop than in the 2023-2024 season, despite the forecast of a larger production. The national supply company estimates that Brazil will produce 94.6 million metric tonnes in its second corn crop. That is the largest of the three corn crops produced by Brazil and the one Brazil exports.
Exports are expected to total 34 million metric tonnes. So 36pc of national production in the second corn crop would go to the export market. In the previous season, shipments totalled 43pc of the national production. The 2023-24 crop produced 90.3 million metric tonnes and 38.5 million metric tonnes were exported, according to Conab.
This reduction in exported volumes takes place because of a record expected demand from the domestic market this year, correct?
Yes. The animal feed and corn ethanol industries are growing and registered corn production and consumption records in 2024. M of the corn purchases in the second half of last year were from these two sectors, according to market participants. Producers preferred to sell to the domestic industry because of the higher prices offered by domestic buyers.
So the trend for 2025 is for the domestic market to continue paying a premium over exports and acquiring most of the stocks?
At this first moment, you could say so. But the international corn market is set to face a supply shortage this season. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the global corn demand will surpass production by around 20 million metric tonnes. The main corn importers will have to compete more aggressively when it comes to negotiating shipments. This may lead to an increase in prices paid at ports, so the port differentials.
Thank you for joining us, Nathalia! Let’s continue monitoring the developments of the Brazilian corn with the Santos/Tubarao and Barcarena/Itaqui published daily in the Argus AgriMarkets report.
