Cyclone Zelia threatens Australian Fe, Li, Mn exports

Market: Metals
12/02/25

Cyclone Zelia off Western Australia's (WA) Pilbara coast is on track to make landfall on 13 February, threatening iron ore, lithium and manganese exports from the region.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) expects the cyclone to develop into a relatively rare and extremely powerful category three system on 13 February, as it starts heading towards WA's mines.

The Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) will close Port Hedland — Australia's largest iron ore export hub — at 6pm local time (7am GMT) on 12 February, having started clearing ships out of its berths a day earlier. Port Walcott — a smaller export facility to the west of Port Hedland — is also emptying its berths, in preparation for the cyclone.

Cyclone Zelia on 14 February will pass over a part of WA where Fortescue's Iron Bridge mine, Mineral Resources' Wodgina lithium mine, Pilbara Minerals' Pilgangoora lithium mine, and three of Atlas Iron's mines are located, according to BoM forecasts.

The cyclone will then move south over Fortescue's Christmas Creek and Cloudbreak iron ore mines, the Roy Hill iron mine, and Consolidated Minerals' Woodie Woodie manganese mine early on 15 February, before losing energy and dissipating by the next morning.

Cyclone Zelia is the third weather system to disrupt WA's ports this year. Cyclone Sean flooded parts of Port Dampier and forced PPA to close all of its export facilities for two days at the end of January. Ships subsequently started moving out of Port Walcott and Port Dampier over the first week of February because of Cyclone Tahlia, driving Rio Tinto's exports to their lowest point since at least January 2019.

But WA has experienced extreme weather events before. Cyclone Veronica shuttered three WA ports for nearly a week in March 2019. Cyclone Ilsa in April 2023 also drove PPA to close Port Hedland for two days.

The four main iron ore prices that Argus assesses have risen over the last month. Argus' Iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price rose to $105.80/t on 11 February, from $97.90/t on 13 January.

By Avinash Govind

Iron ore prices $/t

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

11/03/25

EU changes to HDG, CRC quotas to hit imports

London, 11 March (Argus) — The European Commission's proposed changes to its import steel safeguard quotas, starting from 1 April, are expected to affect volumes for hot-dip galvanised (HDG) and cold-rolled coils (CRC) because of proposed caps on individual suppliers' access to the "other countries" allocation of 13-25pc depending on product category. For CRC the cap stands at 13pc, impacting key suppliers Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and Turkey. The new CRC "others" quota volume will total 334,369t in April-June for other countries, which leaves 43,467t per supplier. The change mimics the cap introduced last year on hot-rolled coil (HRC) quotas. The limit for galvanised steel imports are higher, with 20pc cap on 4B auto-grade HDG imports from other countries, with Turkey, Vietnam and Japan identified by the commission as major suppliers. The cap is at 25pc for 4A HDG quotas, impacting Turkey, Vietnam and Taiwan. This would allow each country under other countries to supply 118,012t/quarter of 4A HDG, with the total volume for the quota at 472,049t for the coming quarter. For 4B HDG, the quota for other countries will be 104,770t, leaving 20,955t per country. Remaining volumes from previous quarters will not be carried over starting from 1 July for CRC and 4A HDG, but for 4B HDG quotas, the mechanism will remain in place. In 2024, imports from Vietnam, Turkey, Taiwan and Japan amounted to 2.15mn t for HDG into the EU, including both 4A and 4B categories. In the last quarter of 2024, Vietnamese HDG imports into the EU alone amounted to 321,405t, equivalent to over 56pc of the total other countries quota for that period for 4A and 4B combined. The total volume of 4A and 4B that Vietnam will be able to tap into from April will be just under 140,000t. Reactions from Turkish market participants were mixed today, but expectations are that reduced Vietnamese volumes might aid Turkish sellers of HDG, despite the fact that Turkey will also face the same cap as well as dumping duties. Vietnam has been taking up a large portion of the quota, with the changes now likely to allow more volumes to flow into the EU from other suppliers. Combined CRC volumes in the EU from Turkey, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam amounted to 1.38mn t in 2024 and in the fourth quarter alone reached 339,909t. This will cut CRC imports sharply as under the current adjustments, other countries will have 43,467 t/quarter allocation each for the April-June period. Initially a more substantial reduction in quota volumes was anticipated, as per European steel association Eurofer's request . With the exception of Vietnamese HDG, the adjustments are not likely to change import volumes drastically, according to market participants. "The cap on CRC and HDG quotas will reduce our exports but we were expecting harsher reductions. We still have our separate allocation for HRC, and we can offset our exports through HRC sales," a Turkish producer commented. "But what will happen to all the new capacities? Volumes could be directed to the local market, challenging domestic producers," a re-roller said. By Elif Eyuboglu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

EU plate quota caps key suppliers at 110,000 t/quarter

11/03/25

News

11/03/25

EU plate quota caps key suppliers at 110,000 t/quarter

London, 11 March (Argus) — The new iteration of the EU steel safeguard quotas will include a 20pc cap on hot-rolled plate imports under the "other countries" quota, which will limit imports from a number of key sellers. The proposed quarterly plate quota stands at about 550,000 t/quarter, which is only slightly lower than current levels, by about 15,000t from January-March. Suppliers such as South Korea, Indonesia and India previously were able to tap into the quarterly volume unrestricted, but now will be limited to 110,000 t/quarter for a total of about 440,000 t/yr. There will no longer be a carryover of unused quota volumes from quarter to quarter for several products including heavy plate. The changes are set to take effect on 1 April unless any objection is lodged by the World Trade Organization. Plate imports into the EU last year amounted to 2.1mn t. Only South Korea exported beyond the new 440,000t threshold, as arrivals totalled 760,000t, leaving 320,000t, or about 42pc of its volumes to the bloc, at risk if exports were to continue at last year's pace. Indonesian and Indian exports to the EU were lower at 420,000t and 410,000t, respectively, last year. If imports from these countries continue at the same pace, the impact on these origins will be minimal. The changes could benefit some suppliers with lower volumes such as Brazil, Japan, North Macedonia and Malaysia, which could potentially step up to substitute some of South Korea's volumes. "I think [South] Korea is the loser indeed, and total imports are more likely to be reduced. This should give a respite to EU producers but competition will increase within Europe as producers will most likely increase their production if they can. I do not see a healthy market ahead," a trading firm said. By Carlo Da Cas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

New EU steel safeguards quotas softer than Eurofer ask

11/03/25

News

11/03/25

New EU steel safeguards quotas softer than Eurofer ask

London, 11 March (Argus) — Amendments to the EU's steel safeguard quotas, after a European Commission review initiated in December, are far less stringent than European steel association Eurofer's requests . The proposed changes will see the total duty-free hot-rolled coil (HRC) quota volume reduced from 1 April to 1.9mn t/quarter, representing a 12.1pc cut quarter on quarter. The reduction is the result of the decision to remove up to 65pc of redistributed Russian volumes, owing to sanctions after the conflict in Ukraine. Those tonnages will also be taken out of the plate, wire rod and hollow sections quotas. The largest cut in volumes on HRC is for India, with duty-free volume falling by around 23pc. In addition, the cap to the "other countries" HRC quota access every quarter is reduced to 13pc from 15pc previously. There is now a cap introduced of 13pc for the cold-rolled coil (CRC) quotas, of 20pc for 4B hot-dipped galvanised and 25pc for 4A HDG allocations, as well as 20pc for rebar. The caps for other products are in a range of 15-30pc. The commission is removing the access to residual quota volumes in the final quarter of the measures' year, April-June for HRC, CRC and 4A HDG. Importers will get up to 30pc access in the 4B residual volumes. There will no longer be carry over of unused quota volumes from quarter to quarter for several products, including HRC, CRC, 4A HDG, plate and wire rod, but the mechanism will remain in place for 4B HDG and rebar. The commission will also reduce the annual quotas liberalisation rate to 0.1pc from 1pc. The latter two changes will be applicable from 1 July — all other changes will be in force from 1 April. There will also be a new 1B quota for HRC for imports under HS code 7212 60 00 with negligible volumes, following crowding out of the highly specific product, identified by one interested party. Notably, there have been very few changes to the developing countries list to which the measures do not apply, with Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, China and Thailand still exempt from the HRC quotas. Eurofer was seeking a 50pc reduction in flat product quotas as well as a 32-41pc increase in the safeguard duty applicable to material outside allocations. It also proposed a melt-and-pour clause on Chinese steel, and a cut in the HRC other countries' cap to 7.5pc, not the 13pc put forward by the commission. Multiple sell-side sources had repeatedly told Argus the changes would be "meaningful", with the commission understanding the plight of European mills. However, the changes are substantially less drastic than those requested by Eurofer. The review has been seen as something of a damp squib by sellers, and even buyers, which were hoping severe import restrictions would help lift prices. A source close to Eurofer said he was "shocked" by the results, and that doors "remain wide open" to imports. Another mill source termed the review a "big fat nothing". The safeguard will run until 30 June 2026 and there will be consultations on the review over 11-18 March. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson Amended safeguard quota volumes t Proposed allocation 1 April-30 June 2025 Current allocation 1 January-31 March 2025 Change HRC Turkey 397,957 464,843 -66,886 India 225,080 295,144 -70,064 South Korea 161,143 184,309 -23,166 UK 139,271 154,181 -14,910 Serbia 142,378 163,620 -21,242 Other countries 856,769 925,106 -68,337 — European Commission proposal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico inflation quickens in February

10/03/25

News

10/03/25

Mexico inflation quickens in February

Mexico City, 10 March (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) quickened to an annual 3.77pc in February, as deceleration in agriculture prices was offset by faster inflation in services prices. Headline inflation rebound from a four-year low of 3.59pc in January, but held for a sixth consecutive month within the central bank's target range of 2pc to 4pc. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 February, was slightly below the 3.76pc median estimate from 38 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 March survey. Fruit and vegetable prices contracted 5.54pc in February after a 7.73pc contraction in January, which more than offset the 5.71pc inflation in egg prices driven by bird flu containment. It was not enough, however, to overcome services inflation of 5.53pc in February, up from 5.25pc the prior month, with notable increases in higher education prices. Despite the higher headline rate, Mexican bank Banorte, said the inflation trend remains favorable with short-term climate conditions suggesting fruit and vegetable prices may be less volatile in coming months than the same time last year. As such, Banorte confirmed its call for the central bank to issue a second consecutive half-point cut to its target interest rate on 27 March, which would take it to 9pc from 9.5pc. Banorte also noted stability in Mexico's core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, to 3.65pc in February from 3.66pc the previous month. Meanwhile, energy inflation eased to 3.74pc in February from 6.34pc the previous month, with electricity inflation easing to 5.07pc from 5.32pc in January. The trend for energy inflation is "encouraging", said Banorte, noting the recent OPEC+ move to gradually raise production from April, helping to lower international reference prices. The bank also cited the recent agreement between President Claudia Sheinbaum and gasoline dealers to cap low-grade fuel at Ps24 per liter ($4.46/gallon). By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Indonesian ministry proposes new nickel royalty rates

10/03/25

News

10/03/25

Indonesian ministry proposes new nickel royalty rates

Singapore, 10 March (Argus) — Indonesia's ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) on 8 March proposed to change the non-tax state revenue or Pendapatan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) for various nickel products. But other details are yet to be confirmed. The ESDM suggested revising the PNBP royalty rate for nickel ore from a fixed 10pc to a range of 14-19pc, depending on the Harga Mineral Acuan (HMA) nickel price , which is the reference price for nickel ore. The ESDM also proposed revising the PNBP royalty rates for ferronickel and nickel pig iron (NPI) to a range of 5-7pc depending on the HMA, from a fixed rate of 2pc and 5pc, respectively. Nickel matte's windfall profit has also been removed under the new proposal, with the fixed 2-3pc royalty rate to be revised to 4.5-6.5pc depending on the HMA. The market continues to closely monitor the developments of Indonesia's nickel regulations, following the modification to the HMA price, an extension to the holding period of export earnings onshore and a potential RKAB work plan curtailment . Royalty rates % HMA nickel ($/t) Proposed changes (%) Nickel ore < 18,000 14.0 18,000 < 21,000 15.0 21,000 < 24,000 16.0 24,000 < 31,000 18.0 ≥ 31,000 19.0 Ferronickel and NPI < 18,000 5.0 18,000 < 21,000 5.5 21,000 < 24,000 6.0 24,000 < 31,000 6.5 ≥ 31,000 7.0 Nickel matte < 18,000 4.5 18,000 < 21,000 5.0 21,000 < 24,000 5.5 24,000 < 31,000 6.0 ≥ 31,000 6.5 ESDM Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more