Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

India’s LNG demand, imports set to rise by 2030: IEA

  • Market: Natural gas
  • 12/02/25

India's demand for LNG is set to rise significantly by 78pc to 64bn m³ by 2030 to meet its rising demand for natural gas, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

This is up from 36.17bn m³ in 2024, according to IEA's India Gas report released at India Energy Week on 12 February.

LNG imports would increase to account for 62pc of India's gas consumption, which is expected to hit 103bn m³ by 2030, it added. Imports accounted for 50pc of gas consumption in 2024, out of 72bn m³, oil ministry data show.

The rise in demand would be backed by the rising city gas distribution (CGD) sector supported by the rapid expansion of its compressed natural gas (CNG) infrastructure and gas in industrial use, the report said. Targeted strategies and policy interventions may also boost gas consumption beyond the forecasted level to around 120bn m³ by 2030, according to the report.

The rise in LNG imports would necessitate additional LNG import capacity beyond 2025, IEA said. The gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen significantly after 2028, it added.

This "may leave India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years," the report said.

But production may not keep pace with demand. IEA expects India's domestic gas production, which currently meets 50pc of demand, to grow only moderately to just under 38bn m³ by 2030.

India's gas output totalled 36bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show.

IEA expects overall production growth to be limited by plateauing output from the KG-D6 fields and declining production from legacy assets like ONGC's Mumbai offshore fields, which may offset the increasing onshore production from coal bed methane (CBM) and discovered small fields (DSF) and from the additional supplies from ONGC's deepwater KG-D5 project.

But India's compressed biogas (CBG) production potential remains largely untapped, with annual output expected to reach 0.8bn m³ by 2030, IEA said.

Sectoral demand

Gas demand for power and industrial sectors is expected to each take up 15pc of demand by 2030, equivalent to around 15bn m³ respectively, based on the normalised trajectory of consumption hitting 103bn m³ by 2030, IEA said in its report.

Gas consumption from refineries is also expected to increase by more than 4bn m³ by 2030 as more refineries are connected to the grid, it added. Gas usage by refineries totalled 5bn m³ in 2024, oil ministry data show.

But growth prospects in the petrochemical and fertilizer sectors remain limited, as there are no new gas-based capacity additions planned, it added.

The think tank expects some new demand centres to emerge as a result of higher utilisation of India's stranded gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, more rapid expansion of India's CGD infrastructure, combined with the replacement of LPG with natural gas in the commercial sector.

Challenging targets

But IEA expects India's 15pc target of natural gas use in the primary energy mix will be challenging to meet, owing to India's gas development pathway prioritising affordability and energy security.

"Inter-fuel competition is particularly strong in India, with natural gas vying against coal, oil and renewables in several gas-consuming sectors," according to the IEA report.

Even small changes in global gas prices can significantly impact domestic consumption patterns, the report added. Competitive pricing is needed to enable natural gas adoption given the price sensitivity.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
09/07/25

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff: Update

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff: Update

Updates with comments from Brazil's vice president Washington, 9 July (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing the ongoing trial of that country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Trump's letter to Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, released on Wednesday, is one of the 22 that the US leader sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will be charging on imports from those countries. But his letter to Brazil stands out for allegations of a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, who — much like Trump — disputed his electoral defeat and attempted to stay in office. Brazil's supreme court qualified Bolsonaro's actions in 2022 as an attempted coup, ordering him to stand trial. Trump said he will impose the 50pc tariff because "in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections and the Fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans". The latter is a reference to orders by judges in Brazil to suspend social media accounts for spreading "misinformation". Trump separately said he would direct US trade authorities to launch an investigation of Brazil's treatment of US social media platforms — an action likely to result in additional tariffs. Trump's letter to Lula also contains language similar to that included in letters sent to 21 other foreign leaders, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices and suggesting that the only way to avoid payments of tariffs is if Brazilian companies "decide to build or manufacture product within the US". The Trump administration since 5 April has been charging a 10pc extra "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from Brazil and nearly every foreign trade partner. Trump on 9 April imposed even higher tariffs on key trading partners, only to delay them the same day until 9 July. On 7 July, Trump signed an executive order further delaying the implementation of higher rates until 12:01am ET (04:01 GMT) on 1 August. Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 10pc tariffs on any country cooperating with the Brics group, which includes Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa. Lula hosted a Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. Brazil vice president Geraldo Alckmin, speaking to reporters before Trump made public his letter to Lula, said: "I see no reason (for the US) to increase tariffs on Brazil." The US runs a trade surplus with Brazil, Alckmin said, adding that "the measure is unjust and will harm America's economy". Trump has justified his "Liberation Day" tariffs by the need to cut the US trade deficit, but the punitive duties also affect imports from countries with which the US has a trade surplus. By Haik Gugarats and Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Trump threatens 50pc Brazil tariff

Washington, 9 July (Argus) — US president Donald Trump is threatening to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing the ongoing trial of that country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Trump's letter to Brazil's president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, released on Wednesday, is one of the 22 that the US leader sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will be charging on imports from those countries. But his letter to Brazil stands out for allegations of a "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro, who — much like Trump — disputed his electoral defeat and attempted to stay in office. Brazil's supreme court qualified Bolsonaro's actions in 2022 as an attempted coup, ordering him to stand trial. Trump said he will impose the 50pc tariff because "in part to Brazil's insidious attacks on Free Elections and the Fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans". The latter is a reference to orders by judges in Brazil to suspend social media accounts for spreading "misinformation". Trump separately said he would direct US trade authorities to launch an investigation of Brazil's treatment of US social media platforms — an action likely to result in additional tariffs. Trump's letter to Lula also contains language similar to that included in letters sent to 21 other foreign leaders, accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices and suggesting that the only way to avoid payments of tariffs is if Brazilian companies "decide to build or manufacture product within the US". The Trump administration since 5 April has been charging a 10pc extra "Liberation Day" tariff on most imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from Brazil and nearly every foreign trade partner. Trump on 9 April imposed even higher tariffs on key trading partners, only to delay them the same day until 9 July. On 7 July, Trump signed an executive order further delaying the implementation of higher rates until 12:01am ET (04:01 GMT) on 1 August. Brasilia did not immediately react to Trump's threat of higher tariffs. Trump earlier this week threatened to impose 10pc tariffs on any country cooperating with the Brics group, which includes Brazil, China, Russia, India and South Africa. Lula hosted a Brics summit in Rio de Janeiro on 6-7 July. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Heatwave eats into Japanese utilities’ LNG stocks


09/07/25
News
09/07/25

Heatwave eats into Japanese utilities’ LNG stocks

Osaka, 9 July (Argus) — LNG inventories at Japan's main power utilities fell for the second consecutive week during the week to 6 July, as hotter than normal weather boosted electricity demand for cooling and increased gas-fired generation. The utilities held 2mn t of LNG inventories on 6 July, down by 7pc from a week earlier and by 12pc from the recent high of 2.27mn t on 22 June, according to a weekly survey by the trade and industry ministry Meti. But the latest volume was almost in line with the 1.99mn t recorded for 7 July 2024. A large part of Japan has experienced unusually hot weather since the middle of June, with the country's environment ministry, together with the Japan Meteorological Agency, occasionally issuing heatstroke alerts. This boosted the country's power demand to an average of 113GW during the 30 June-6 July period, up by 10pc on the week and by 7pc from a year earlier, according to the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators (Occto). Firm electricity demand encouraged power producers to raise gas-fired output by 9.1pc on the week to an average of 36GW during the week to 6 July, the Occto data showed. Coal- and oil-fired generation also rose by 22pc to 31GW and 49pc to 1GW, respectively. Generation economics for Japan's gas-fired power plants improved with higher wholesale electricity prices, which was supported by stronger bidding demand. Margins from a 58pc-efficent gas-fired unit running on spot LNG averaged ¥2.82/kWh ($19.18/MWh) across 30 June-6 July, up from the previous week's ¥0.88/KWh, based on the ANEA — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — and Japan Electric Power Exchange' systemwide prices. The 58pc spark spread using oil-priced LNG supplies also rose by 35pc to an average of ¥3.90/kWh. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Venture Global urges shipping review of rival project


08/07/25
News
08/07/25

Venture Global urges shipping review of rival project

Houston, 8 July (Argus) — US LNG developer Venture Global is asking federal regulators to re-examine whether shipments from its 12.4mn t/yr (1.65 Bcf/d) Calcasieu Pass export terminal would be disrupted by a competing project on the same Louisiana waterway. Venture Global's concerns pertain to Kimmeridge's 9.5mn t/yr Commonwealth LNG terminal, which is located just across the Calcasieu Ship Channel in southwest Louisiana (see map) and is anticipated to reach a final investment decision (FID) later this year. The ship channel, part of the port of Lake Charles, is becoming the US' LNG export hub, with the existing Calcasieu Pass and Cameron LNG terminals set to be joined by Commonwealth, Woodside's 16.5mn t/yr Louisiana LNG and Energy Transfer's 16.5mn t/yr Lake Charles LNG by 2031 (see table) . Venture Global is also close to an FID on its 28mn t/yr CP2 facility adjacent to the Calcasieu Pass plant. In a letter to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on 30 June, Venture Global requested FERC revisit Commonwealth's waterway suitability assessment, which analyzes if a waterway can safely handle increased traffic or requires a mitigation plan. Under Commonwealth's original approval by the US Coast Guard in 2019, the terminal was told to reassess its impact on traffic once the Calcasieu Pass plant began operations. Calcasieu Pass LNG exported its first cargo on 1 March 2022, and Commonwealth updated its waterway assessment the following month. Venture Global's lawyers argue that Commonwealth's waterway assessment is outdated because Calcasieu Pass did not begin commercial operations — the time at which a terminal begins delivering LNG to offtake customers — until April 2025. The company sold 444 cargoes totaling 28.2mn t of LNG on the spot market between March 2022 and April 2025, which is the subject of an arbitration case by Venture Global's customers, including Shell and BP, who argue it was unjustified in delaying deliveries. In a response filed with FERC, Commonwealth's lawyers argued Calcasieu Pass has been operating at nameplate capacity since 2022 and therefore it does not need to update to its waterway assessment. "Put simply, from a terminal operations perspective, nothing has changed" after Calcasieu Pass commenced commercial operations, Commonwealth's lawyers wrote. Commonwealth's waterway assessment and approval by the Coast Guard were upheld in March 2025 and require no changes, it told Argus. By Tray Swanson Calcasieu Ship Channel LNG terminals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

LNG industry urges USTR to scrap shipbuilding clause


08/07/25
News
08/07/25

LNG industry urges USTR to scrap shipbuilding clause

Houston, 8 July (Argus) — US LNG producers and trade associations filed comments with the US Trade Representative (USTR) calling for the agency to remove a protectionist proposal that would punish exporters and shippers that do not export a certain volume on US-built carriers. The proposed rules, issued in April, mandate that a certain percentage of US LNG exports be shipped on US-built, -flagged and -crewed carriers, rising from 1pc in 2028 to 15pc in 2047. Under the initial proposal, a failure to comply with the rules would have been enforced by threatening to revoke LNG terminal export licenses, meaning that LNG terminal operators had the responsibility of ensuring compliance, instead of shippers. A June proposal shifted the responsibility for meeting the targets to the shippers. But two trade groups, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Center for LNG (CLNG), filed a joint letter on 7 July urging the USTR to scrap the LNG-specific rules altogether. The US Chamber of Commerce and US LNG producers Cheniere and Freeport LNG wrote their own letters calling for the same. Even if the responsibility to comply were passed on to shippers, the rules would harm the competitiveness of US LNG on the global market, the trade groups argued. The cost of building an LNG carrier in the US could reach $1bn per vessel, they wrote, compared to about $250mn for those built in South Korea, which has constructed about 77pc of LNG carriers in the global fleet. The shipowner would recoup those costs with higher freight rates, dimming the appeal of US cargoes in international markets. Building LNG carriers in the US is also unfeasible due to the global sourcing of the components. For example, equipment used in LNG carriers is procured from Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Sweden, France, Norway and the UK. It would take additional time to build out domestic manufacturing capacity for these key components. The API included a slide detailing how modern LNG carriers are about 47m wide, 2m wider than the maximum capacity at the Hanwha Philly Shipyard in Pennsylvania. The trade groups concluded that the USTR's proposal would run "counter to the Trump administration's goal of achieving energy dominance". The Chamber of Commerce argued that the shipping regulation would decrease US LNG exports and add to trade deficits, which the administration has made a priority to reduce. Cheniere, the API and the CLNG also sought clarification on another section of the USTR proposal that adds fees for vessels owned or operated by Chinese entities. They urged the USTR to clarify that LNG vessels with existing sale and leaseback financing arrangements with Chinese banks are not subject to that rule. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more