US headline inflation eases in February

Spanish Market: Battery materials, Coal, Metals
12/03/25

US inflation fell in February for the first time in four months, an unexpected improvement amid mounting uncertainty over the new US administration's tariff, immigration and spending policies.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual rate of 2.8pc in February, down from 3pc in January, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a 2.9pc rate.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose at a 3.1pc annual rate, down from 3.3pc the prior month and the lowest since April 2021.

The deceleration in inflation comes as the Federal Reserve has signaled it is in no hurry to change its policy stance as it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and other policies, which most economists warn will spur inflation. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week after pausing in January following three rate cuts in the final months of 2024.

The energy index fell by an annual 0.2pc in February from 1pc growth in January. Gasoline fell by 3.1pc. Piped gas rose by 6pc.

Food rose by an annual 2.6pc, accelerating from 2.5pc. Eggs surged by an annual 59pc, as avian flu has slashed supply.

Shelter rose by 4.2pc, accounting for nearly half of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.4pc in January.

Services less energy services rose by 4.1pc, slowing from 4.3pc in January.

New vehicles fell by 0.3pc for a second month.

Transportation services rose by an annual 6pc, slowing from 8pc in January. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.1pc and airline fares fell by 0.7pc.

CPI slowed to a monthly 0.2pc gain in February from 0.5pc in January, which was the most since August 2023.

By Bob Willis

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12/03/25

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US: Update

Adds aluminum, steel trade data. Calgary, 12 March (Argus) — Canada is levying new counter-tariffs worth nearly C$30bn ($20.9bn) on the US in response to Washington's 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. As of 12:01am on 13 March, 25pc reciprocal tariffs on an additional C$29.8bn of imports from the US will be put into place, Canada's finance minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday. This includes C$12.6bn on steel products, C$3bn on aluminum products, and C$14.2bn on additional imported US goods. The list of additional goods includes computers, sports equipment, cast iron products, among others. US president Donald Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Canada, Mexico and all foreign countries, effective Wednesday. LeBlanc said the government learned the US' tariffs would also be imposed on steel and aluminum content in "certain derivative products", which Canada is assessing and may impose further counter tariffs. Resource-rich Canada supplies the US with about 70pc of its aluminum imports and about 23pc of its steel imports. The US imported 3.9mn metric tonnes (t) of unwrought alloyed and primary aluminum in 2024, with 2.7mn t of that coming from Canada, according to Global Trade Tracker. For comparison, the US produced 670,000t domestically in 2024, data from the US Geological Survey shows. The US imported about 25mn t of steel — including flat, long, pipe and tube — in 2024, with Canada supplying the most of any country at 6mn t, according to the US Department of Commerce. Brazil was the US' next largest foreign source at 4.1mn t while the EU and Mexico came in at 3.5mn t and 3.1mn t, respectively. Canada's minister of innovation, science and industry, François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, and Ontario premier Doug Ford will meet with US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on 13 March to discuss an update to the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. "The conversation tomorrow will be around lowering the temperature and focusing on the process that President Trump setup," said LeBlanc. Canada's position is that Trump should respect the USMCA agreement that he signed, LeBlanc said. The European Union is meanwhile preparing to retaliate against Trump's tariffs. The region will impose countermeasures of €26bn ($28bn), introduced in two stages starting on 1 April and then be fully in place on 13 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on X today. "I've been telling my European colleagues that Canada is the canary in the coalmine," Canadian foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly said on Wednesday. "If the US can do this to us, their closest friend and ally, then nobody is safe." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US

12/03/25

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US

Calgary, 12 March (Argus) — Canada is levying new counter-tariffs worth nearly C$30bn ($20.9bn) on the US in response to Washington's 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. As of 12:01am on 13 March, 25pc reciprocal tariffs on an additional C$29.8bn of imports from the US will be put into place, Canada's finance minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday. This includes C$12.6bn on steel products, C$3bn on aluminum products, and C$14.2bn on additional imported US goods. The list of additional goods includes computers, sports equipment, cast iron products, among others. US president Donald Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Canada, Mexico and all foreign countries, effective Wednesday. LeBlanc said the government learned the US' tariffs would also be imposed on steel and aluminum content in "certain derivative products", which Canada is assessing and may impose further counter tariffs. Canada's minister of innovation, science and industry, François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, and Ontario premier Doug Ford will meet with US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on 13 March to discuss an update to the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. "The conversation tomorrow will be around lowering the temperature and focusing on the process that President Trump setup," said LeBlanc. Canada's position is that Trump should respect the USMCA agreement that he signed, LeBlanc said. The European Union is meanwhile preparing to retaliate against Trump's tariffs. The region will impose countermeasures of €26bn ($28bn), introduced in two stages starting on 1 April and then be fully in place on 13 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on X today. "I've been telling my European colleagues that Canada is the canary in the coalmine," Canadian foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly said on Wednesday. "If the US can do this to us, their closest friend and ally, then nobody is safe." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s economy minister in DC for metals tariff talks

11/03/25

Mexico’s economy minister in DC for metals tariff talks

Mexico City, 11 March (Argus) — Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard traveled to Washington DC this week to negotiate a resolution to threatened 25pc US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from his country. Ebrard was joined by deputy minister of foreign trade Luis Rosendo Gutierrez "to meet with US officials and discuss steel and aluminum," the economy ministry said. The visit comes amid uncertainty over how the tariffs will impact Mexico's auto and manufacturing sectors, given the deep integration of supply chains across North America. The president of Mexican automaker association AMIA confirmed the group's support for Ebrard. "This is the first order of business — we are all working to ensure there are no steel tariffs on 12 March, but we'll have to see what happens." US President Donald Trump enacted a blanket tariff of 25pc on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico on 4 March. The next day, the Trump administration announced it would exclude from the tariff all goods in compliance with the US, Mexico and Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) for a period ending 2 April. Meanwhile, all goods not in compliance will continue to fall under the blanket 25pc tariff. Furthermore, the Trump administration has said it will impose a global 25pc tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the US, effective Wednesday, but market sources say there is confusion over how the global metals tariff will interact with the 4 March tariffs. Garza highlighted concerns over how the tariffs could disrupt cross-border trade, noting that auto parts often cross the US-Mexico border multiple times before final assembly. "We're analyzing the potential impact on auto parts that move between Mexico and the US several times, from both the steel export industry's perspective and the final manufacturing side," he said. Ebrard is also presenting Mexico's stance on trade rules under USMCA, Garza added. "Our interpretation is that companies in the transition-to-compliance process are within the rules," Garza said, referring to a mechanism that allows firms to gradually meet the agreement's rules of origin for duty-free trade. Recent US International Trade Commission data shows that 8.2pc of Mexican vehicle exports and 20.4pc of Mexican auto parts exports currently do not comply with USMCA rules of origin. Mexico exported $106bn in auto parts in 2024, 87pc of which went to the US, according to auto part association INA. Auto industry groups in Mexico are working with their US and Canadian counterparts, compiling data to support Ebrard's negotiations, including potential scenarios for the impact of tariffs on auto prices and production across the trade bloc, Garza said. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican auto exports down 9pc in Feb

11/03/25

Mexican auto exports down 9pc in Feb

Mexico City, 11 March (Argus) — Mexico's light vehicle exports decreased by 9pc in February, as automakers pointed to weakening demand in the US, their key market. Automakers in Mexico shipped 258,952 units in February, with 84pc bound for the US, according to statistics agency Inegi. Exports were down annually for a second consecutive month, following a 14pc drop in January. Production declined slightly to 317,178 units, a 0.8pc decrease from a year earlier, while domestic sales rose by 3pc to 117,678 vehicles, the same data show. Mexican automaker association AMIA president Rogelio Garza attributed the export slowdown to rising US inflation, which accelerated to 3pc in January from 2.4pc in September. "This increase in inflation automatically affects the domestic market and has lowered demand in the US," Garza said. "If over 80pc of what we send is for US consumption, then when consumption drops, Mexican exports and production fall in tandem." Uncertainty over potential 25pc US tariffs on Mexican goods also contributed to the weaker exports, Garza said. Some companies have paused shipments while awaiting determinations on whether their products qualify for zero tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. Separately, Inegi reported 10,248 electric (EV) and hybrid vehicles sold domestically in February, a 29pc annual increase but down by 6pc from January. This marks two straight months of declining sales after a record 15,360 units were sold in December. EVs and hybrids accounted for 9pc of total domestic auto sales in February, up from a 6.5pc share a year earlier but flat from January's 9pc share. Meanwhile, EV and hybrid production surged by 90pc to 16,175 units in February from a year earlier, but fell by 7pc from January. Total output in 2024 reached 169,929 units, a 60pc jump from 2023. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU changes to HDG, CRC quotas to hit imports

11/03/25

EU changes to HDG, CRC quotas to hit imports

London, 11 March (Argus) — The European Commission's proposed changes to its import steel safeguard quotas, starting from 1 April, are expected to affect volumes for hot-dip galvanised (HDG) and cold-rolled coils (CRC) because of proposed caps on individual suppliers' access to the "other countries" allocation of 13-25pc depending on product category. For CRC the cap stands at 13pc, impacting key suppliers Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and Turkey. The new CRC "others" quota volume will total 334,369t in April-June for other countries, which leaves 43,467t per supplier. The change mimics the cap introduced last year on hot-rolled coil (HRC) quotas. The limit for galvanised steel imports are higher, with 20pc cap on 4B auto-grade HDG imports from other countries, with Turkey, Vietnam and Japan identified by the commission as major suppliers. The cap is at 25pc for 4A HDG quotas, impacting Turkey, Vietnam and Taiwan. This would allow each country under other countries to supply 118,012t/quarter of 4A HDG, with the total volume for the quota at 472,049t for the coming quarter. For 4B HDG, the quota for other countries will be 104,770t, leaving 20,955t per country. Remaining volumes from previous quarters will not be carried over starting from 1 July for CRC and 4A HDG, but for 4B HDG quotas, the mechanism will remain in place. In 2024, imports from Vietnam, Turkey, Taiwan and Japan amounted to 2.15mn t for HDG into the EU, including both 4A and 4B categories. In the last quarter of 2024, Vietnamese HDG imports into the EU alone amounted to 321,405t, equivalent to over 56pc of the total other countries quota for that period for 4A and 4B combined. The total volume of 4A and 4B that Vietnam will be able to tap into from April will be just under 140,000t. Reactions from Turkish market participants were mixed today, but expectations are that reduced Vietnamese volumes might aid Turkish sellers of HDG, despite the fact that Turkey will also face the same cap as well as dumping duties. Vietnam has been taking up a large portion of the quota, with the changes now likely to allow more volumes to flow into the EU from other suppliers. Combined CRC volumes in the EU from Turkey, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam amounted to 1.38mn t in 2024 and in the fourth quarter alone reached 339,909t. This will cut CRC imports sharply as under the current adjustments, other countries will have 43,467 t/quarter allocation each for the April-June period. Initially a more substantial reduction in quota volumes was anticipated, as per European steel association Eurofer's request . With the exception of Vietnamese HDG, the adjustments are not likely to change import volumes drastically, according to market participants. "The cap on CRC and HDG quotas will reduce our exports but we were expecting harsher reductions. We still have our separate allocation for HRC, and we can offset our exports through HRC sales," a Turkish producer commented. "But what will happen to all the new capacities? Volumes could be directed to the local market, challenging domestic producers," a re-roller said. By Elif Eyuboglu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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