US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic five years ago, and consumer expectations fell to the lowest since October 2011, according to a Conference Board survey released today.
The consumer confidence index fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April, the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since the US was emerging from a brief recession in 2020 that was triggered by the pandemic and the related economic shutdown.
The expectations index, based on US consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, dropped by 12.5 points to 54.4, well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
The three segments of the expectations index — business conditions, employment prospects and future income — "all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future", according to the Conference Board.
"Tariffs are now on top of consumers' minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high," the board said. "Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy."
The share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months was 32.1pc, nearly as high as in April 2009 during the Great Recession.
The present situation index, based on consumers view of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 0.9 to 133.5.
"High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers' views about the stock market deeper into negative territory", with 48.5pc expecting stock prices to fall in the next 12 months. Average expectations for US inflation levels in 12 months rose to 7pc, the highest since November 2022. The Conference Board is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank based in the US. Its monthly consumer confidence survey is based on an online sample of consumers.
By Bob Willis
