US president Donald Trump said today he will withdraw US troops from Syria, a move that will relinquish control over the oil-rich part of the country and reduce the risk of confrontation with military forces backed by Russia and Iran.
The decision represents an abrupt change from the strategy White House national security adviser John Bolton and senior State Department officials have outlined in recent months, a plan that envisioned a more or less permanent presence in Syria involving thousands of US troops to combat Iranian influence.
But Trump has persistently spoken out in its favor of a withdrawal since the US-led coalition gained captured back most of the areas held by radical Islamist group Isis late last year. And the Pentagon has insisted defeating Isis remained its primary mission in Syria.
"The US has defeated the territorial (Isis) caliphate," the White House said. "We have started returning US troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign." And Trump via Twitter added: "We have defeated Isis in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency."
The US military and its allied forces control roughly one third of Syrian territory, including most of the country east of the Euphrates river. The State Department earlier this year outlined plans to use that presence — and control over oil resources — to establish parallel governance structures in opposition to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's government. The US-backed structures would have opposed Russia and Iran, which, according to US intelligence officials, are planning for a long-term presence in Syria, securing military basing rights and oil and natural gas exploitation contracts. Syrian crude output stood at 420,000 b/d in 2010, the last full year before the civil war began, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The agency estimates the country's proven reserves at 2.5bn bl of oil and 241bn m³ of gas.
The US administration has long described the removal of Iranian-commanded forces as a key objective in Syria. But the US presence there following military successes against Isis has complicated already tense relations with Russia and Turkey.
The US military inflicted multiple casualties on Russian forces during a 7 February battle near Deir ez-Zour, in an area close to the largest concentration of Syria's oil resources. The US in its campaign against Isis primarily relied on Syrian-Kurdish militias, which are viewed with suspicion by Ankara. The Pentagon has had to contend with Ankara's demand for the removal of US-allied forces from northwest Syria areas on the border with Turkey. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated the demand in a phone conversation with Trump last week.
Trump has been pushing for a reduced US footprint in Syria for some time, even though he twice authorized military airstrikes against Assad's forces over their alleged use of chemical weapons. Trump this summer canceled plans to spend $230mn on reconstruction activities in the US-controlled parts of Syria, forcing the State Department to turn, instead, to Saudi Arabia and other donors.
Senior Republicans in the Senate today criticized the withdrawal decision. "President Trump is right to want to contain Iranian expansion. However, withdrawal of our forces in Syria mightily undercuts that effort and puts our allies, the Kurds, at risk," senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) said.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) said the decision "was a grave error with broader consequences that may have not been thought through."
The US withdrawal will increase Assad's dependence on Russia and Iran and increase the tempo of Israeli operations in southern Syria against Iran-backed forces, Rubio said. "That will trigger a counter-response, and suddenly we find ourselves in another Israel-Hezbollah war, one that is deadlier and costlier" than the conflict in Lebanon in 2006.
