Tension and uncertainty over Guyana's parliamentary election results have clouded the forecast for the country's emerging oil industry.
The ruling coalition led by the People's National Congress (PNC) is claiming victory in the 2 March election. But opposition parties and international election observers are criticizing the vote count, focusing on Region 4 around the capital Georgetown, one of 10 regions in the country of 750,000 people.
The political controversy follows the December 2019 launch of light sweet crude production from the offshore Stabroek block, where operator ExxonMobil has made a string of big discoveries since 2015. The block holds an estimated 8bn bl of oil equivalent reserves, the US major says.
No matter the electoral outcome, ExxonMobil and its partners, US independent Hess and Chinese state-owned CNOOC unit Nexen, seem likely to proceed with developing at least 750,000 b/d in 2025. But the winner of the disputed election will determine how much farther Guyana's oil industry will grow.
The opposition People's Progress Party (PPP) sees ExxonMobil as a pioneer that deserves to maintain its existing contract terms. But the party wants to toughen royalties and other fiscal conditions for companies that picked up licenses after ExxonMobil, including Chevron, Total, Repsol, Eni and Tullow.
Guyana's election commission has yet to declare final official results. But President David Granger is already boasting of another term, based on preliminary results favoring the PNC. The PPP says the government is stealing the election.
A joint statement by diplomatic missions in Georgetown said the vote tally for Region 4 was incomplete, yielding "questionable" results.
The Atlanta-based Carter Center observation team said "the tabulation process that had been taking place in Region 4 was circumvented," resulting in a Region 4 tally that is "not credible."
Former president Bharrat Jagdeo of the PPP alleged discrepancies between the preliminary results and the voter roll in Region 4.
Behind the chaos, Guyana's energy department is forging ahead with plans to set up a sovereign wealth fund. A tender for a one-year contract to market the government's share of crude production closes on 12 March.
