The US government would suspend oil sanctions on Venezuela in the early stages of a political transition plan that was to be laid out by senior US officials this morning.
The plan envisions the incremental lifting of sanctions in tandem with steps toward restoring democracy, including the overhaul of the Opec country's supreme court and the national electoral authority (CNE), according to US officials. The process would culminate in free and fair elections as early as the end of 2020.
Venezuela's national oil industry led by PdV has seen its production and exports nosedive over the past year, with sanctions accelerating a decline rooted in years of neglect and mismanagement. But even if the US lifts oil sanctions, it is unclear that Venezuela would be able to sell much oil following the oil price crash and virus-hit demand this month.
The initiative, which US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and the US special envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams were to announce this morning, is designed to restore political momentum at a time when the world is laser-focused on tackling the inexorable spread of the coronavirus. The UN and some countries are urging the US to ease sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and other countries to enable the countries to fight the deadly disease.
The White House is countering that it will gradually lift sanctions on Venezuela, and provide significant aid, if Nicolas Maduro gives up power.
All Venezuelan institutions, with the exception of the National Assembly, are controlled by Maduro, whose presidency is not recognized by the US and more than 50 other countries on the basis of his May 2018 re-election that they deem to have been a fraud. Starting in January 2019, these countries recognize opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's interim president instead, but his authority remains superficial outside the opposition-controlled National Assembly.
Early in the US roadmap, both Maduro and Guaido would step aside to allow the formation of a five-member state council with a military adviser. Four of the council's five members would be selected by the opposition-controlled National Assembly and the fifth would be a "neutral" figure acceptable to both sides.
Each step in the transition would trigger an easing of sanctions. The oil sanctions, which the US imposed in late January 2019, would be suspended upon the formation of the council.
The US is hoping the initiative will break Venezuela's political impasse and restore momentum for political change.
There is little sign that Maduro or his inner circle would be willing to accept the plan, which has echoes in proposals tabled during failed Norwegian-sponsored negotiations last year. Russia and China continue to support Maduro, and are sending in aid.
Nonetheless, the US is hoping a looming potential health catastrophe will change the political calculus in Miraflores presidential palace.
Following last week's US indictments of Maduro and more than a dozen senior associates for drugs trafficking and money-laundering, the Venezuelan leader and his associates would likely be reluctant to agree to any transition plan without a safe exit strategy.
In a fiery speech yesterday, Maduro warned that justice would come to all parties that conspire against him.
