Australian coal shipments are holding up in October despite Chinese restrictions on imports and wild weather that has buffeted the east coast of Australia over the past four days.
Queensland coal shipments are tracking in line with September and those from New South Wales (NSW) are ahead of September, according to initial shipping data compiled by Argus. Shipments are being bolstered by increased demand from economies outside of China that are reopening following Covid-19 lockdowns.
Shipments with confirmed destinations in China fell significantly in September and have remained depressed in October, but all the main ports show over 1mn t of shipments to unconfirmed destinations in both months. This is an increase from previous months and could be shipments that will make their way to China eventually or shipments that will be resold because they cannot get into China, following Beijing's instructions that key steel producers and power utilities stop importing Australian coal.
Vessel queues outside the adjacent ports of Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) and Hay Point inQueensland have rebounded to 20 after falling as low as 12 in late September. Queues are also higher at other major Queensland coal export ports, with seven vessels waiting outside the Adani-operated Abbot Point terminal and 25 outside of Gladstone, up from five and 14 respectively a month ago. There are 12 vessels outside the NSW port of Newcastle, as shipping continues despite strong winds and large swells causing the port to temporarily clear its anchorage.
DBCT has a target to ship at a rate of 73.73mn t/yr in October but shipped at an average rate of only 46.9mn t/yr in the first 25 days of the month, according to data released by logistics providers. It missed its September target of 75.56mn t/yr by around 35pc, shipping at 50.75mn t/yr, according to port data.
DBCT provides port services for many smaller mining firms in Queensland, many of which have struggled to place product in the oversupplied seaborne market. Some of DBCT's mining customers, including Stanmore Coal, report that deferred term contracts are now being filled to destinations outside of China.
Argus yesterday assessed the high-grade thermal coal price at $53.40/t fob Newcastle for NAR 6,000 kcal/kg, down from $56.33/t on 2 October but up from a low of $46.18/t on 8 September.
Argus yesterday assessed the premium hard low-volatile coking coal price at $107.50/t fob Australia, down from $136/t on 2 October and only slightly above the recent low of $105/t on 11 August. It assessed the hard mid-volatile coking coal price at $98/t fob Australia, down from $114.50 on 2 October but above $85.30/t on 28 August.
