China is planning to operate almost 20pc more domestic flights in the next five months as the government looks to support the economy and compensate for a collapse in international travel. But total flight numbers are still likely to be down on last year, according to Argus calculations.
China's civil aviation bureau and airlines have scheduled an average of 84,634 domestic passenger flights a week for the coming winter and spring season, which runs from 25 October to 27 March 2021. The figures exclude flights to and from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.
The daily average of 12,090 domestic passenger flights is up by 19.8pc from the year-earlier period. The number of scheduled cargo flights has also increased significantly, up by 38.8pc to 2,101 a week in the same comparison.
There are another 2,984 flights a week scheduled between mainland China and Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, down by 23.2pc from the 2019-20 season.
The planned increase in domestic flights is in line with the Chinese government's new ‘dual circulation' economic development model, which aims to stimulate domestic consumption amid global economic weakness and uncertainty over trade. China's domestic air travel recovered to almost 90pc of year-earlier levels during the country's golden week holiday in early October.
The international passenger flight schedule has been slashed by 96.8pc from a year earlier to just 592 flights a week. The plans could be adjusted further at any time based on quarantine requirements.
But the number of scheduled international cargo flights by domestic and overseas carriers has more than doubled to 4,498 a week, up by 128.6pc from 2019-20. Cargo flight activity has risen sharply since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, to meet increased demand for medical supplies and other necessities amid the collapse in international passenger travel.
China's domestic jet fuel demand recovery has accelerated since May as the economy recovers from Covid-19 shutdowns early in the year. But exports hit fresh nine-year lows in September while imports are down on a year earlier.
| China's winter-spring flight plan | flights per week | ||
| 2020/21 | 2019/20* | Change | |
| Domestic passenger | 84,634 | 70,646 | 13,988 |
| Domestic cargo | 2,101 | 1,513 | 588 |
| Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan | 2,984 | 3,885 | -901 |
| International passenger | 592 | 18,500 | -17,908 |
| International cargo | 4,498 | 1,968 | 2,530 |
| Total | 94,809 | 96,512 | -1,703 |
| Source: Civil aviation administration of China | |||
| Winter-spring period covers 25 October 2020 to 27 March 2021 | |||
| *calculated based on percentage changes | |||
