Latin America's early reactions to Joseph Biden's US electoral victory presage a blurring of the ideological divide that the incumbent US administration has fostered across the region.
Reminiscent of the Cold War, outgoing US president Donald Trump's administration sought to build a conservative coalition of Latin American countries disposed to investment from the US over China, and united around a Florida-friendly campaign to oust Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro and further isolate Cuba. Colombia, Brazil and more recently the Dominican Republic were all in. But for most other governments in the region, Trump's rigid "with-us-or-against-us" strategy toward Caracas and Havana never sat well at home, where domestic politics in countries such as Chile were more complicated than the zero-sum US policy would accommodate. And they were uncomfortable with Washington's arm-twisting over China that ignored the reality of Beijing's regional investment, trade and lending in countries like Ecuador and Brazil.
Most now welcome a less confrontational and more nuanced US approach toward the region that will bring Washington into closer alignment with the EU and restore cooperation on pressing transcendent issues — namely the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change — rather than the traditional immigration and anti-narcotics themes that previously shaped US policies.
One concrete manifestation of president-elect Biden's approach will be the resumption of a thaw in relations with Cuba that was spearheaded by former US president Barack Obama with whom he served as vice president in 2008-16. In recognizing the "new course" chosen by the US electorate, Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel signaled yesterday an openness to "the possibility of a constructive bilateral relationship that is respectful of differences."
Biden could leverage this tentative relationship to prod Cuba's close ally Venezuela into establishing fair electoral conditions, a process that would be tied to a gradual easing of US financial and oil sanctions. This path would leave little room for Venezuela's hardline opposition that the Trump administration sought to fashion into a credible interim government led by Juan Guaido, who predictably was one of the last in the region to congratulate Biden yesterday.
But the new rapprochement with Cuba could help to improve ties with Bolivia's new moderate socialist president Luis Arce and turn a page with Argentina. "It's the change of an era, which is very important for Latin America because these four years were very difficult in Latin America's relationship with the United States," Argentina's president Alberto Fernandez said in a television interview.
Lookalikes mum
All eyes are now on Trump's populist lookalikes in Mexico and Brazil to see how they will respond to the coming White House shift. Mexico's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Brazil's president Jair Bolsonaro were conspicuously quiet yesterday, as kudos for Biden poured in from across much of the world. Their silence is an implicit endorsement of Trump's refusal to concede the presidential race in spite of vote counts favoring his rival.
As Latin America's largest economies, Mexico and Brazil have the most at stake in the energy and environmental policies a Biden administration plans to usher in after the January 2021 inauguration. Because of its overwhelming reliance on US fuel and natural gas imports, Mexico is likely to feel an early brunt of Biden's plan to incorporate environmental and labor commitments into trade relations. The pressure could derail President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's already dubious campaign to restore Mexico's national oil industry, or force him to reorient energy policy on greener and more financially sustainable terms consistent with Washington's new priorities.
In Brazil, Bolsonaro will face immediate pressure to tackle Amazon deforestation, putting him at odds with his cattle-ranching constituency. But Biden's broader environmental policy plans could also bring greater cooperation with Brazil on renewable fuels and energy. State-controlled Petrobras, already on an aggressive divestment path, could enjoy renewed prominence as a non-Opec oil supplier in a world that is transitioning more quickly away from fossil fuels, so long as China continues to soak up supply.
