The US can lift sanctions against Iran's oil sector in advance of the country's presidential election next month, but Washington's next move depends on a "political decision" by Tehran, a senior US official said today.
Indirect talks in Vienna between US and Iranian negotiators over the past month have "crystallized the choices" the US and Iran need to make to return to mutual compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the official said ahead of the fourth round of talks hosted by the EU that is due to start tomorrow.
"It is a pretty clear set of choices that needs to be made, because we are not inventing something new — it is written in the JCPOA," the official said.
The US under the deal promised not to get in the way of Iran's ability to export oil in exchange for Tehran's compliance with restrictions on its nuclear program. Former president Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018, and a year later, Tehran started selectively breaching curbs on its nuclear program. President Joe Biden has expressed willingness to rejoin the deal, if negotiations with Iran prove successful.
"If Iran makes a political decision that it genuinely wants to return to the JCPOA, as the JCPOA was negotiated, then it could be done relatively quickly and implementation could be relatively swift," the US official said. "Is it possible? Yes, it is possible. But is it likely? Only time will tell — it is a political decision to be made in Iran."
The toughest obstacle has been addressing the US sanctions imposed in 2018-2020 that even the Biden administration views as "poison pills" designed to sabotage a future return to the agreement. Iran insists that all those sanctions need to be removed. The Biden administration says it will remove the sanctions that prevent smooth functioning of Iran's economy.
The "terrorism" sanctions imposed on Iran's central bank, state-owned NIOC and other oil sector entities in 2018-2020 would deter foreign banks and oil buyers from doing business with Tehran even if other sanctions are lifted. Another "terrorism" designation imposed in 2019 involves Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — a military force with extensive political and economic interests.
US diplomats said they would prefer to negotiate directly with their Iranian counterparts but realize that Iran's domestic politics may have dictated the existing format.
"We talk to the Europeans and to the Russians and the Chinese. Then they talk to the Iranians, and then come back to us," the US official said. "Things get lost in translation. There is miscommunication, there are misunderstandings. So all of that takes longer. But (those are) the constraints under which the Iranian negotiators are operating."
Iran's president Hassan Rohani yesterday praised the progress in talks and said "sanctions will be lifted soon if we are all united." The outcome of negotiations so far justifies the decision to take part in them, Rohani said.
In the US, former Trump officials and Republicans in Congress have been vocal in their opposition to a resumption of the agreement.
Trump's administration proved that there is no alternative to the JCPOA, the US official said. "Its theory of the case was that by imposing maximum pressure and withdrawing from the deal, Iran would have to come back and agree to more stringent nuclear requires commitments and agree to curb its destabilizing regional behavior. I think the test of the last three years have shown that it is precisely the opposite.
US sanctions have cut off more than 2mn b/d of Iranian crude exports since 2018, although Iranian exports to China began to rebound since January.
