The European Court of Justice will on 15 July publish its decision on Germany's appeal against a ruling on the use of the 36bn m³/yr Opal gas pipeline.
The announcement follows the publication on 18 March of a non-binding but influential opinion by an advisory judge recommending the dismissal of the appeal.
The appeal opposes a 2019 EU court decision annulling a regime change from 2016 that had allowed expanded use of Opal by Russian state-controlled Gazprom. The legal effect of the court's decision was to restore the more restrictive 2009 access regime.
Gazprom has been largely able to offset the supply and sales impact of the decision by diverting flows from the 55bn m³/yr Nord Stream pipeline, to which Opal connects, by delivering gas along a short section of the 20bn m³/yr Nel pipeline to the 55bn m³ Eugal line, which tracks the same route and supplies the same markets as Opal.
This has been possible as Eugal was built to receive flows from the nearly-complete 55bn m³/yr Nord Stream 2. This may continue to be the case even if the German appeal is dismissed, but full use of Nord Stream 2 — if allowed under an an amended European-wide gas infrastructure access regime, which Gazprom is also contesting — could leave Eugal with no spare capacity to receive gas from Nord Stream 1.
Unless Gazprom is allowed greater access to Opal, it would likely be difficult to run Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 at full capacity simultaneously, which could in turn require Gazprom to continue delivering gas quickly along the 33bn m³/yr Yamal-Europe route and through Ukraine, where it has booked 40bn m³/yr of capacity in 2021-24.
Yamal-Europe already flows near capacity on most days. And Gazprom can book extra capacity through Ukraine at regular auctions.
The Opal access regime was agreed upon with Gazprom as a condition for its access to the pipeline as a result of competition concerns, particularly in the Czech Republic.
Commissioning of Nord Stream 2 could also be expected to change physical flows further, although the timing, access and other conditions under which the pipeline may be allowed to operate remain unclear.
The 2019 court decision overturning the 2016 access regime did so partly on the basis that the decision-maker did not consider the principle of "energy solidarity" in the EU's foundational treaties.
The European Commission was contacted for comment but declined to do so "in view of the political situation but also the legal proceedings".
The decision expected on 15 July may further complicate consideration of the access regimes, which could apply to the short section of Nord Stream 2 that falls within the scope of EU legislation, pending Gazprom's legal challenges, as well as Opal itself.
No similar restrictions were applied to Eugal. Nearly all offered capacity was booked at multi-year auctions on 6 March 2017.
