India to produce record kharif grains, misses targets

Indian farmers are expected to produce 150.5mn t of grains, driven by record rice output, from this year's summer crop. But oilseed production will miss its target by 10pc, under the country's preliminary estimate.

Total grain production from the summer kharif season, running from April to September, will total a record 150.5mn t, up from 149.6mn t a year earlier. But the estimate is short of the government's target of 151.4mn t.

The yearly increase of 0.94mn t in grain production marks the lowest yearly rise in output since 2015, when kharif grain production contracted to 125.09mn t (see chart).

Rice is the key kharif grain crop, due to total a record 107.04mn t, up from 104.4mn t in summer last year and a target of 104.3mn t.

But coarse cereal output will drop to 34mn t, from 36.5mn t in the previous kharif season, and miss the target of 37.3mn t.

Total oilseed production will miss its target by 10pc, slipping to 233.9mn t, under the preliminary estimate. Output of soybeans, the major oilseed crop, will drop to 127.2mn t, down from 129mn t on a year earlier, marking a 14pc fall from the government's target.

Sown kharif acreage down, monsoon weak

The prediction of an overall solid kharif production — driven by a strong rice crop, offsetting the lower oilseeds output — is broadly in line with seasonal sown crop acreage data published earlier this month.

Total kharif sown acreage had fallen to 109.7mn hectares (ha) as of 10 September, from 110.7mn ha a year earlier. But rice sowings were up by 158,000ha to 40.96mn ha. Oilseed sown acreage had fallen by 1.6pc to 19.3mn ha, the data show.

The agricultural industry's focus is now on the winter rabi season and the all-important wheat crop, as the monsoon rains come to an end. Monsoon rainfall is lagging long-term average levels by around 3pc, Indian meteorological department data show.

By Harry Minihan

India kharif grain production