Oil and natural gas will remain the dominant sources of energy in the US through 2050, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its latest long-term outlook.
US petroleum consumption will grow by 0.5pc/yr to 22.3mn b/d by 2050, according to the baseline scenario in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook. Domestic gas consumption is set to increase by 0.4pc/yr over that same period to 93 Bcf/d (2.6bn m3/d), during which US net exports of natural gas through LNG and pipeline will grow by 2.5pc/yr to 23 Bcf/d by 2050.
Oil and gas are set to retain their positions as the largest two energy sources in the US over the next three decades, even with renewable power increasing by nearly 150pc by 2050, the outlook said.
"We do not see liquid fuels and natural gas losing their place as the top two sources of energy in the US to 2050," EIA deputy administrator Stephen Nalley said. "That appears to be true under a pretty wide variety of assumptions about economic growth, technology and energy development costs and prices."
US gasoline demand is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels of 9.3mn b/d reached in 2019, and instead will range from 8.7-9.1mn b/d through 2050 as rising fuel-economy and electric vehicle growth offsets a 0.9pc/yr increase in driving by cars and trucks, the outlook said. The electric vehicle stock will reach 13pc of light-duty vehicles by 2050, up from 3pc last year, EIA said.
EIA prepared the long-term outlook before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, meaning it does not factor in the potential effects from long-term changes in oil and gas prices stemming from the invasion and resulting sanctions. The outlook expects global crude benchmark Brent will climb from $70/bl this year to $90/bl by 2050, well below today's $110.46/bl settlement price for the May contract.
In the electricity sector, the US is expected to derive nearly 40pc of its power from wind, solar and hydroelectric by 2050, up from 23pc today. Coal's power generating market share will decline to 11pc by 2050, down from 23pc today, according to the baseline scenario.
