Compliance among deal-bound members of the Opec+ coalition rose to 136pc in February from 129pc in January, driven by a widening gap between production and quotas from some of the non-Opec members of the group, according to delegates and a document seen by Argus.
The average compliance rate among non-Opec countries increased to 135pc last month from 123pc in January, while conformity among the Opec participants edged up to 136pc from 133pc.
Opec+ achieves its monthly compliance rates using the average crude production estimate of six independent secondary sources, one of which is Argus. Argus' own figures show the group as a whole was 890,000 b/d under target in February, leaving a compliance rate of 130pc.
Pressure is building on the Opec+ group to boost production beyond the current agreed monthly increments to help ward off a potential supply crunch should sanctions levied on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict cause large-scale disruption to Russian output. The coalition has been raising its collective quota by 400,000 b/d a month since last summer. Under a roadmap agreed last July, that increment is due to edge up to 432,000 b/d from May, when the baseline levels determining quotas and compliance rise for five of the group's members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE.
Opec+ ministers are due to meet on 31 March to set May quotas. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said today that he hopes the upcoming meeting "will come up with some good messages which would help to relieve the strain in the oil markets".
The IEA said earlier this week that up to 3mn b/d of Russian oil production could be pushed offline as a result of the Ukraine conflict. Only around 13pc of Russian oil exports are directly affected by outright import bans announced by the US and others, but several oil companies are stepping away from Russian oil voluntarily for reputational reasons and uncertainty over possible future sanctions, the IEA said.
