OECD energy watchdog the IEA has mounted a staunch defence of its data and analysis, after Opec and its non-Opec allies decided they would no longer use its numbers to calculate compliance with members' quotas under the Opec+ production restraint deal.
"The IEA notes the reports that Opec+ plans to no longer use the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report, a key reference for fundamental data and analysis, as a secondary source," the Paris-based group said today. "IEA data and analysis remain available to all those seeking rigorous and objective market information."
The IEA said it would make its monthly Opec+ production survey publicly available "to support transparency."
The statement comes one day after the Opec+ group's Joint Technical Committee (JTC) decided to remove, with immediate effect, the IEA from the panel of 'official' secondary sources that monitor the group's monthly crude production. The Opec secretariat has yet to officially comment on the move. A source familiar with the thinking said the change was made because of growing doubts within Opec+ of the reliability of the agency's data.
"The reason [for the change] is that the IEA have compromised their technical analysis to fit their narrative," the source said. "This is evident when observing the frequent changes in their recent reports and how far they deviate from the other respected agencies."
A second source pointed to several moments "over the past two years" that have eroded the Opec+ group's trust in IEA, and a third said the group is uncomfortable with the "political position" the IEA has been taking in its reporting.
The IEA, for its part, has been critical of Opec+ in recent months, saying it is not doing enough to help tackle high energy prices. Earlier this month IEA executive director Fatih Birol described the group's decision to stick with a 400,000 b/d increase in its April crude quota as "disappointing".
Opec+ has replaced the IEA as a secondary source with consultancies Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy, sources said, which now join Argus Media, the US EIA, S&P Global Platts, IHS Markit and Energy Intelligence. The Opec+ group calculates individual country production quotas by averaging the output estimates of the independent sources.
