The global expansion of LNG capacity as a result of governments' efforts to "shore up energy security" is posing a threat to meeting the Paris agreement 1.5°C temperature limit, according to research organisations Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute.
"The dash for gas globally is at such a scale that it risks undermining the world's ability to limit" global warming, climate analytics chief executive Bill Hare said on the sidelines of the Cop 27 UN climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh today.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent governments "doubling down" on fossil fuels while the oil and gas industry "is pushing fossil gas as the route out of the crisis", the organisations said in a report. "The energy crisis has taken over the climate crisis," Hare warned.
According to their research, LNG capacity under construction and future expansion plans — a 235pc increase from current installed capacity — will result in an increase of emissions by 1.9 gigatonnes/yr of CO2e in 2030 above levels consistent with the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario. Around 70pc of those additions are coming from North America and about 20pc from Africa, Hare said. But global gas use by 2030 "needs to be at least 30pc below 2021 levels" to meet net zero under the IEA's scenario, the report reads.
The organisations warned that governments had made little progress since the Cop 26 summit in Glasgow last year and that the world was heading for 2.4°C warming under current 2030 targets.
Governments had acknowledged that targets that were put forward during the last summit "were not adequate" but have failed to bring forward improved targets this year, climate analytics senior policy analyst and lead author of the report Claire Stockwell said.
Countries such as Brazil, Egypt, India, Indonesia and the UK did not increase their climate ambitions since last year, while overall policy implementation remained slow. Some "notable" developments to lower emissions by 2030 were observed in the US, China and the EU but higher historical emissions have rendered those developments obsolete, the consortium warned.
At the same time, stronger targets from Australia, the UAE and Norway were not enough to "move the thermometer", not least because these countries are increasing their exports of natural gas and LNG.
UAE president Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan said at the opening of the climate summit on Monday that his country would continue to supply oil and gas "for as long as the world needs" it.
