The future of the fossil fuel industry is a hot topic at this year's conference, writes Caroline Varin
The oil sector complained of being ignored at last year's Cop 26 UN climate conference in Glasgow. At Cop 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, it may be getting more attention than it bargained for, with calls for oil and gas to be phased out coming at the same time as requests for the sector to bolster energy security, contribute to a loss and damage fund, and help finance energy transition in developing countries.
Fossil fuels were directly targeted in a Cop text for the first time last year. The Glasgow Climate Pact urged countries to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. The text was watered down at the last minute and the commitment lacked a deadline to make countries accountable, but it set a new precedent and the role of natural gas in the transition started to look more uncertain.
Fast forward a year to the middle of an energy crisis worsened by Russia's war in Ukraine, and natural gas and oil are very much centre stage, albeit viewed across a growing divide. UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres says the war in Ukraine has "exposed the profound risks of our fossil fuel addiction" and has called for an end to that dependence. UAE president Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan — whose country will host next year's Cop 28 — opened this year's summit by committing to supply oil and gas for as long as the world needs it.
"Fossil fuel lobbyists are working openly through a number of country delegations, pushing back against calls to curtail the fossil fuel industry," activist group Kick Big Polluters says, adding that more than 600 fossil fuel lobbyists are attending the climate conference this year. The scramble for gas supplies in Europe has bolstered calls for increased investments, although research organisations Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute warned that the global expansion of LNG capacity as a result of governments' energy security efforts is posing a threat to meeting the 2015 Paris agreement's 1.5°C temperature limit.
The energy and cost of living crises have given resonance to Africa's plea for energy justice. Some African countries will ask for financial support to develop their natural gas resources as part of an energy transition, which could gain traction as Europe scrambles to replace Russian gas. African countries should develop and export their natural gas reserves to help with their industrialisation, but in a sustainable way, IEA managing director Fatih Birol says.
Developing countries cannot be blamed for wanting to develop their resources, Barbados prime minister Mia Amor Mottley says. Barbados plans to explore for oil and gas along its maritime border, and supports the view that net zero emissions does not have to mean zero fossil fuels. The lack of progress in the transition to net zero in middle-income and developing countries is a result of the difference in borrowing costs between the global north and the global south, Mottley says. Middle-income and developing countries are already burdened by debt and so need to be given the space to borrow to finance the transition, and for a larger proportion of the funding to take the form of grants.
Profit and loss and damage
Countries on the frontline of climate disasters have called on oil and gas companies to take part in discussions on loss and damage, requesting a contribution from their record profits to help pay for the consequences of extreme events related to global warming. "In the first half of this year, six fossil fuels companies made more than enough money to cover the cost of major damages in developing countries, with nearly $70bn in profits," Antigua and Barbuda's prime minister Gaston Browne says. It is "about time" that these companies pay a global carbon tax on their profits, to fund loss and damage, Browne says. "While they are profiting, the planet is burning".
