"The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change", the UN intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) said today in its synthesis report, which closes its sixth assessment cycle — the latest iteration of its scientific appraisals.
The IPCC urged a substantial increase in action on adaptation and mitigation to address global warming. "We are walking, when we should be sprinting," chair of the IPCC Hoesung Lee said. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be nearly halved by 2030 in all sectors if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C — the most ambitious temperature limit under the Paris climate agreement.
Rapid change across all sectors is needed and is more urgent than the group previously assessed in its 2014 synthesis report, it said. The 2014 report led to the Paris agreement. The change called for is significant, but there are feasible technologies that are already available, the IPCC said. Costs of options to mitigate climate change — such as wind and solar power and electric vehicles — have fallen quickly over recent years.
The world already knows how to proceed on many fronts, Lee said. "The report identifies tried and tested practices and policies that can work in diverse contexts to reduce emissions and advance climate resilience", he said.
Lowering demand for climate intensive goods and services is a "promising way to reduce emissions", the report found. Lee took the example of cutting energy demand from buildings, which could reduce emissions by 66pc by 2050, adding that other savings could be made in other sectors such as transports and power. Carbon removals will be necessary to reach net-negative CO2 emissions, while carbon pricing instruments are effective to incentivise low-cost emissions reduction measures, the report found.
Climate finance
To reach climate goals, financing for mitigation and adaptation must increase, to around three to six times current investments, the IPCC said. "There is sufficient global capital to rapidly reduce GHG emissions if existing barriers are reduced", but governments must use public funding and "clear signals to investors" to ensure that finance moves to the right areas.
"There are ways to reduce the barriers that hold back investments, governments have a clear role to play," Lee said. "The report underscores that clean energy is the most promising and effective option for climate action but there is a more holistic approach." This involves measures to adapt to climate change with actions to reduce emissions in ways that provide wider benefits, the report said.
"Insufficient and misaligned finance is holding back progress", Senior Research Fellow at the African Climate and Development Initiative and report co-author Christopher Trisos said.
Global warming will continue to increase until 2040, according to nearly all modelled pathways. And even if countries' climate plans were all implemented, they would not deliver a 1.5°C limit, the IPCC said. Global warming has already reached 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, causing more frequent extreme weather events.
Any delays to action on mitigation and adaptation would lock in high-emitting infrastructure, raise the risk of stranded assets and increase loss and damage, the IPCC said. UN secretary general Antonio Guterres today said that developed countries "must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040".
Stocktake
"This year's so-called global stocktake — a process under which countries assess progress towards the Paris goals — is a moment for countries to agree on the concrete milestones that will take us to our 2030 targets", UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said.
The first global stocktake — which is set up to take place once every five years over a two-year period — was launched at the UN Cop 26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021, and will conclude at this year's Cop 28 summit in Dubai. The IPCC report is a "resource" for policymakers addressing the global stocktake, as well as wider challenges, Lee said.
World Resources Institute director David Waskow last week said the report would be a "critical benchmark" for the next Cop climate commitment cycle, and "needs to be taken on board at the global stocktake".
