Germany's gas system operators should "fundamentally rethink" their core assumptions for a future hydrogen transport network as existing plans would lead to an oversized grid, storage operator association Ines has said.
Germany's hydrogen transport system may need much less entry and exit capacity in the early 2030s than system operators' association FNB has assumed in initial plans, Ines said.
On the entry side, Ines regards the assumed import capacity as particularly oversized. Based on FNB's assumptions, capacity for hydrogen pipeline imports from neighbouring countries would be 58GW by 2032. FNB is factoring in 19GW of "other flows" into the grid, specifically imports from maritime terminals, for a combined 77GW, or 675 TWh/yr.
But in Germany's revised hydrogen strategy, which was finalised last week, the government estimates no more than 91 TWh/yr of imports would be needed by 2030 to meet demand, even in a maximum scenario. Even in longer-term scenarios, maximum import demand does not exceed 422 TWh/yr, Ines said.
It similarly questions assumptions around domestic electrolyser capacities and required exit capacity.
Given the "large discrepancies" between FNB's assumptions and other estimates, including in the national hydrogen strategy and in the government's long-term scenarios, the system operators should "fundamentally rethink" their approach, Ines said. Oversizing the grid risks infrastructure being underused, thereby driving up costs, the association said.
Effective use of storage sites would allow for the network to be kept smaller as these facilities can help meet demand peaks, Ines said.
"It is obvious that storages have not been factored in adequately for peak demand periods" in FNB's plans, it said.
Ines said last year that Germany may need to build new storage facilities for up to 41TW of hydrogen until 2050, in addition to converting existing sites that hold natural gas. While pilot projects for converting existing sites have been launched, uncertainties persist over the feasibility of using facilities for hydrogen, especially in aquifers.
FNB's consultation on its underlying assumptions for the hydrogen transport system ended last week. Based on its assumptions, the association had drawn up a core network comprising 11,200km of pipelines, but said the final network could be shorter when planning has been fully optimised. FNB expects around 60pc of the core network would consist of converted natural gas pipelines, and the remainder would be newly built connections.
