Opec has revised up its forecast for Russian liquids supply this year in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). But it has kept its global oil demand growth projections unchanged for both 2023 and 2024.
The group now sees non-Opec liquids supply rising by 1.51mn b/d in 2023, compared with its previous forecast for a 1.41mn b/d increase. The upgrade is entirely driven by a 100,000 b/d revision to production from sanctions-hit Russia, which Opec now sees at 10.38mn b/d this year, compared with 10.28mn b/d in last month's MOMR. This would leave Russian production 650,000 b/d lower than in 2022.
Earlier this month, Russia extended a previous pledge to reduce its crude exports, although it said it would ease the cut from 500,000 b/d in August to 300,000 b/d in September. The announcement coincided with Saudi Arabia's decision to extend its 1mn b/d voluntary crude production cut into September.
Opec has kept its oil demand outlook unchanged. Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 2.44mn b/d to a record 102.01mn b/d in 2023. Most of the growth is seen coming in the second half of the year, with the group pegging demand at 103.21mn b/d in the fourth quarter. China and India combined are expected to contribute over half of this year's demand growth, adding 920,000 b/d and 240,000 b/d, respectively.
Opec sees oil demand growing by a further 2.25mn b/d next year to reach 104.25mn b/d, which is almost 4mn b/d above pre-pandemic demand of 100.28mn b/d in 2019.
Opec's forecast call on its own members' crude for this year has been revised down by 120,000 b/d compared to last month's MOMR, and now stands at 29.3mn b/d. The group produced 27.31mn b/d of crude last month, down by around 840,000 b/d compared with June, according to an average of secondary sources including Argus. Last month's drop was driven by lower Saudi production.
