Global efforts to curb emissions are likely to prove insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris agreement due to surging energy demand from developing nations, according to ExxonMobil.
Energy-related C02 emissions are seen peaking at more than 34bn metric tonnes (t) this decade before falling to 25bn t in 2050, the US oil major said in its Global Outlook. Reducing emissions by 25pc over that timeframe — even as the world economy is expected to more than double in size — is no mean feat.
"Even so, more is needed to hit the emission-reduction levels required to keep global temperature increases below 2°C," the company said.
The average of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Lower 2-degree scenarios requires emissions to fall to around 11bn t by 2050.
"An energy transition is underway, but it is not yet happening at the scale or on the timetable required to achieve society's net-zero ambitions," ExxonMobil said.
Oil and gas are still projected in the outlook to meet 54pc of the world's energy needs in 2050, according to the company's outlook.
While oil use is expected to decline for personal transportation, it will remain essential for industrial processes and heavy-duty transport like shipping, long-haul trucking, and aviation.
If every new passenger car sold in 2035 were an electric vehicle, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85mn b/d, comparable to 2010 levels.
Wind and solar are seen providing 11pc of the world's energy supply in 2050, five times their contribution today, while other lower-emissions options such as biofuels, carbon capture, hydrogen and nuclear will also play key roles.
In June, ExxonMobil shareholders overwhelmingly rejected a proposal calling on the producer to set a medium-term reduction target for Scope 3 end-use emissions — which account for the vast majority of its carbon footprint.
In recent years, ExxonMobil has stepped up spending on low-carbon initiatives. The producer has earmarked around $17bn for such efforts through 2027, even as it plans to boost oil and gas production in coming years.
By Stephen Cunningham
