European August sendout at lowest since December 2021

The EU and UK's aggregate LNG sendout fell to its lowest for any month in August since December 2021, as European downstream demand was exceptionally slow.

European LNG sendout slipped to 3.4 TWh/d in August, a 20-month low and down from 3.7 TWh/d a year earlier (see sendout graph).

The fall was driven by a slower stockbuild as underground sites neared capacity, while consumption was also particularly subdued. August European and UK injections slipped to their lowest for the month since August 2014 besides August 2020, when demand was much reduced by the onset of measures to limit the spread of Covid-19, prompting a quick stockbuild earlier in the summer (see injections graph).

And consumption from the continent's five largest gas consumers — Germany, the UK, France, Italy and the Netherlands — slipped to 4.5 TWh/d, the lowest for any month since August 2016 (see consumption graph).

Sendout was slow in the UK, where consumption slipped to its lowest since at least October 2010, driven by slim residential and commercial demand, which also slipped to at least 12-year lows. Spanish regasification also ticked down last month to its lowest since September 2021, as consumption for the month fell to a five-year low. French consumption dropped to its lowest since at least January 2007, driving sendout to its thinnest since June 2022, barring March 2023, when industrial action limited regasification from the country's four LNG terminals. And Italian sendout fell to its lowest since August 2022, pressured by the slowest consumption for any month since August 2014.

Industrial demand has yet to bounce back in much of the continent after high prices led to significant demand displacement over the past two years. And hot weather has limited demand from households and small businesses throughout much of northern Europe, while increased renewable and especially solar generation in southern Europe has considerably reduced the call on gas-fired generation.

Slender demand to continue

Thin consumption and high underground inventories could continue to mute European sendout.

Aggregate EU and UK storage sites stood at 1.1TWh on the morning of 3 September, or 92pc of capacity, leaving little scope for quick injections in the coming weeks.

And mild weather forecast over much of northwest Europe could continue to delay the onset of heating demand. Overnight lows are expected to hold above average in Amsterdam, London and Essen until mid-September. And long-term forecasts anticipate minimum temperatures to hold well above seasonal norms in Paris and to a lesser extent Milan until mid-October.

By Auguste Breteau

EU, UK August injections fall TWh/d

Consumption of Europe's five largest countries falls TWh/d

EU, UK August sendout steps down TWh/d