Middle East gasoline market to be tight in 4Q

Gasoline supplies in the Middle East will stay tight in the fourth quarter because of regional refinery turnarounds, while maintenance in Asia will support premiums, according to traders.

Market participants pointed at tight prompt supplies, reflected in a steep backwardated market structure, with prompt month cargoes at a higher premium to forward months. The September-October spread has been hitting one-year highs in recent weeks.

"Gasoline is already looking tight for October prompt and the resupply is seen after mid-September-October", a Dubai-based trader said.

The 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery in Jubail, operated jointly by Saudi Aramco and TotalEnergies, will have a scheduled turnaround of its No.1 train during October-November. A 240,000 b/d crude distillation unit (CDU), the 31,000 b/d fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) along with other secondary units will undergo maintenance, according to a market source.

Scheduled turnarounds at three refineries in India during September-October will cut into exports. Reliance Industries' (RIL) 1.24mn b/d Jamnagar complex will have maintenance at one of its units for three weeks, although it could not be confirmed if the FCC or CDU will be shut down. The FCC has a capacity to produce 130,000 b/d of gasoline. Indian state-controlled refiner BPCL also plans to have a turnaround at the 240,000 b/d Mumbai refinery from mid-September.

A delay in the start-up of Iraq's new 140,000 b/d Karbala refinery has probably prompted state-owned marketer Somo to increase the volumes sought in its gasoline term tender. The Karbala refinery, expected to be up in the second half of 2023, will have a capacity to produce 50,000-57,000 b/d of 95R gasoline.

Gasoline premiums will stay strong at least until November, according to a trader. Tight supplies can cut into Mideast Gulf exports to African markets, with the bulk of the gasoline requirements likely to be met directly from Singapore and the Mediterranean region, the trader added.

Russian gasoline flows into the Middle East showed signs of losing steam, with the UAE importing only 44,000t of the motor fuel in August, lower than 87,000t in July, according to Vortexa. The UAE emerged as the top buyer of Russian gasoline since November, after overtaking European countries like Latvia and the Netherlands.

Exports from Russia have been slow because of a severe shortage of gasoline in many Russian regions. Last week, Russia's agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev called for a temporary export ban to boost domestic supplies and alleviate shortages.

By Rithika Krishna