Discussions between original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and steelmakers for 2024 contractual supply once again show the tension between the underlying spot market and the old, fixed-price model preferred by mills.
Some larger OEMs wanted to use the Argus northwest EU HRC index in their upcoming contracts instead of longer-term fixed prices, ensuring the deals move in line with the market and, crucially, enabling them to hedge, according to multiple sources.
But sources at larger mills said they will not move automotive contracts to spot references that "reduce" their negotiating power.
"Why would any mill link a value-adding contract to an index driven by imports that do not have a carbon cost?" one mill executive said. "Why price speciality grades against a commodity reference point? It's comparing apples and pears," another suggested. While automakers do buy higher grade material with large extras, the material still has a base price. Indexing that portion means the contract fluctuates in line with the market, rather than divorcing, as often happens, with spot and fixed price contracts.
Mills have been saying for the past year or so that contract prices need to move away from spot references, where commodity-grade imports help inform value in the mind of the buyer. Importers pay no carbon tax and have an energy cost advantage, mill sources said.
Typically, OEMs have had the upper-hand in contract negotiations with mills, as they buy large amounts, especially from coil producers.
In recent years mills have pushed back against this dynamic, after OEMs took less material than expected for a number of reasons, from the introduction of new vehicle emissions testing standards in 2019 to Covid-19-driven component shortages that left their lines producing less cars.
"On all these occasions they did not inform the mills of their plans to cut production," one executive said.
"Delivery schedules showed normal build figures, while production lines were standing still. Couple that with the average lead time, plus the buffer stock at the mill, and you have a massive problem."
"They cannot have the take it or leave it attitude any more," he added, suggesting the power equilibrium has rebalanced somewhat.
The mills' reticence is unsurprising when you look at the premium their fixed price contracts currently have over spot. Assuming a €750-780/t contract price for July-December with service centres and automotive tier-suppliers, there is a €160/t premium to the month-to-date average of the Argus index, and a €141-144/t premium over July and August. Mills do not always win with the fixed price model. In June 2021 the fixed contract price was at a €612/t discount to the Argus index.
