Libya crude production edges higher

Libya's state-owned NOC reported a crude production figure of 1.24mn b/d today, the highest level since it began publishing such numbers on an irregular basis in August 2022.

The production figure, reached on 19 November, comes on the back of a relatively stable year in terms of crude production which has put the Opec member on course for an 11-year high of 1.17mn b/d for 2023. Libya produced 1.17mn b/d in October according to Argus estimates and 1.19mn b/d according to its official submission to Opec.

The upwards trend in output comes as the conflict prone country attempts to raise its production capacity by 100,000 b/d to 1.3mn b/d by the end of the year. NOC has been steadily reviving shut-in wells and started up a brand new oil field earlier in the year.

A key question heading into the Opec+ ministerial meeting on 26 November is whether Libya's recent outperformance could bring up its exemption from Opec+ production quotas. Libya, Iran and Venezuela are not bound by Opec+ production limits because of internal conflict and sanctions.

Libya has long held that it should be exempt until it can restore output closer to pre-2011 levels of around 1.6mn b/d. Libya produced 1.56mn b/d in 2010 before it crashed to 450,000 b/d in 2011, according to Argus.

Politically motivated shutdowns continued in the following years, which regularly stopped large portions of the country's output. The year 2020 was particularly bad, with production coming in at just 370,000 b/d.

Libya's oil minister Mohamed Oun told Argus in June that Libya still had room to increase production and that it needed to make up for lost oil revenues over the past few years. "I believe Opec appreciates the prevailing circumstances for the last few years in Libya," he said.

NOC aims to boost its production capacity to 2mn b/d within three-five years through a $16.9bn spending plan. The plan includes 45 greenfield and brownfield oil and gas projects along with huge maintenance programmes across the upstream and midstream. Libya also plans to hold its first international licensing round since 2007 next year, according to NOC chief Farhat ben Gudara.

By Aydin Calik