Cop: Fossil fuels in globlal stocktake draft: Update

Adds comments from Colombia, Brazil and Norway

A new working document for the first global stocktake — a measurement of progress towards Paris Agreement goals — released today has language on phasing out fossil fuels. But the three options currently on the table show that parties remain critically divided on the issue.

The text, still described as "building blocks" for an official draft, was produced by the co-chairs of the global stocktake discussions, "under their own authority", at the UN Cop 28 climate summit, underway in Dubai. The mitigation section of the document has three options for fossil fuel language so far.

The first is for "an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels", which is supported by Pacific island nations and other countries under the high level coalition umbrella. These include some EU countries, Barbados, Kenya, Chile and Colombia. Colombian minister of energy Andres Camacho reiterated the words of the country's president, saying that the nation was "on the right side of history" even though the economy is heavily dependent on coal. Colombia and Kenya are part of the Beyond oil and gas alliance — a coalition aiming for the managed phase-out of oil and gas output.

The second is "accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century", which is broadly aligned with the EU position.

The third is to have no language on fossil fuels in the outcome of the global stocktake, which, according to non-profit World Resources Institute (WRI), is the position of the like-minded developing countries, a UN voting bloc. The group includes Saudi Arabia and China, two key countries in the negotiating process. Brazil suggested more time is needed to debate the topic at national and international level, and with oil and gas producers, because there is currently no united position.

"I don't think we are going to leave Dubai without some clear language and some clear direction in shifting away from fossil fuels, there is no doubt that it would be in the text when we leave in some fashion", WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said.

But he warned that special attention should be paid to the debate on carbon capture, as the text as it stands is not strong enough if parties were to lean towards language on phasing out "unabated" fossil fuels.

There are some countries that want to find language to discourage too much reliance on abatement technologies such as carbon capture. But others do not think using those technologies will postpone the energy transition or delay emissions reductions.

"We see it as a necessary part of the toolbox," Norway's chief negotiator Henrik Hallgrim Eriksen said.

After days of slow negotiations, the wide range of options suggest that there is still a lot of work to do to get countries to reach a consensus on the topic. Negotiators have little time to get a text into shape for the start of ministers' negotiations in the second week of the summit.

Today's text has stronger language on coal, mentioning "a rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade and an immediate cessation of the permitting of new unabated coal power generation, recognising that the IPCC suggests a pathway involving a reduction of unabated coal use by 75pc from 2019 levels by 2030". Some countries are also opposing this.

The text also has language on tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, compared with 2022 levels, and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency, which has the support of around 120 countries. But the working document also shows that there is an option for no language on renewables at all, pushed by some parties.

The global stocktake is a five-yearly undertaking to measure progress against temperature limits set in the Paris agreement, which aims to curb global warming to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. It is intended to inform the next round of emissions reduction plans, due in 2025.

By Caroline Varin and Michael Ball