US corn, soy production estimate up on yields

US corn and soybean production estimates for the 2023-24 harvest were revised upwards on record yields for corn and increased soybean yields, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In its monthly World Agriculture and Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report, the USDA revised US corn yields upward to 177.3 bushels (bu) per acre (ac) from with the December estimate of 174.9 bu/ac. The current yield is a record high, with the 2021-22 marketing year in second at 176.7 bu/ac.

Yields in the majority of corn producing states were revised upwards compared to the December forecast. Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska — representing 43pc of corn production — saw an increase in yields forecasts as well. Iowa is forecast to yield 200 bu/ac compared with the prior estimate of 199 bu/ac. Illinois is expected to yield 203 bu/ac compared with 200 bu/ac in the prior estimate. Nebraska is estimated to yield 173 bu/ac compared with 164 bu/ac in the prior estimate.

Overall, US corn production is estimated at 15.34bn bu compared with 15.23bn bu in the prior estimate, an increase of 108mn bu. The majority of the estimated increase will be absorbed by ethanol demand and increasing ending stocks. The USDA anticipates corn use for ethanol to increase to 5.375bn bu from 5.325bn bu in the last estimate.

US corn ending stocks are forecast at 2.162bn bu from 2.131bn bu before, bringing ending stocks-to-use to 14.8pc.

US soybean production is forecast at 4.165bn bu compared with 4.129bn bu in the prior estimate. Though harvested acres were revised lower, anticipated yields were revised up to 50.6 bu/ac, compared with 49.9 bu/ac in the December report.

The majority of the 36mn additional acres is going into ending stocks. Ending stocks are estimated at 280mn bu compared with 245mn bu in the prior report.

Soybean oil demand continues to be driven by biofuels. The USDA anticipates soybean oil imports to increase by 50mn lbs to 29.077mn lbs. Biofuels demand is forecast to increase by 200mn lbs with food and export demand to decrease by 100mn lbs and 50mn lbs, respectively.

The wheat balance sheet saw minimal revisions, with the largest being a decrease of 12mn bu to beginning stocks, mainly from hard red winter wheat (HRW). Demand remained relatively flat and ending stocks were revised lower by 11mn bu.

There were no changes to the soybean meal balance sheet.

By Eduardo Gonzalez