El Nino to end in April-May: Australia’s BoM

The El Nino weather phenomenon has peaked and is declining, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said, pointing to neutral El Nino–Southern Oscillation levels developing in the southern hemisphere from April.

International forecasts and observations suggest surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to neutral levels, indicating neither an El Nino nor La Nina phenomenon by April or May, with the latest climate model from the BoM returning to neutral in June.

The forecast for more neutral climate drivers comes after a wetter than expected summer for much of eastern Australia, foreshadowed by a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in December-January, which typically brings above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia and Tasmania. The SAM will become briefly positive in early February before returning to neutral, the BoM said on 6 February.

February rainfall is forecast to be below median for most of Australia, with February-April rainfall likely to be below median for northern Australia, including the coal-producing areas of Queensland state's Bowen basin.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the western Pacific, where it increases the chance of above average rainfall across northeastern Australia. But most models suggest it will move eastwards, losing strength this week.

Australia's wetter and milder than anticipated summer weather led to predictions of lower farm incomes for the 2023-24 year ending 30 June, and concerns about bushfires affecting key export corridors for commodities such as coal, which have not eventuated so far.

Cattle supply has been impacted by the lingering effects of ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, which led to localised flooding in parts of Queensland, with wet conditions across the region cutting demand for bitumen productsCoal loadings were disrupted at a number of Queensland's ports and slowed chartering activity, although terminals reopened two days later. But the wetter-than-expected weather has been blamed for coal ship queues remaining long in 2024.

Australian cattle slaughter rates, which were predicted to rise significantly in 2024 under El Nino conditions, may be revised down if fewer breeders are directed to processors because of more positive weather patterns.

By Tom Major