Teekay sees volatile 2024 in tight tanker market

Persistent volatility and increased long-haul trade across the globe will support crude tanker rates this year amid a stretched and aging global fleet, midsize tanker specialist Teekay said today.

Increased long-haul crude trade flows from the Americas to east Asia, as well as continued shipments from Russia to India and China, likely will increase tonne-mile demand in 2024, Teekay chief executive Kevin Mackay said Thursday on an earnings call. With oil demand growth concentrated in Asia-Pacific and oil production growth led by the US, Brazil and Guyana, voyages between the two regions are expected to increase, he said.

Route diversions due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are also expected to increase tanker demand, especially for Suezmaxes, Mackay added. A Suezmax voyage from Iraq to the Mediterranean is about 4,000 nautical miles, or 13 days, via the Suez Canal, compared with about 12,000 nautical miles, or 40 days, via the Cape of Good Hope, he said.

The 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) oil pipeline project, expected to come online in the second quarter of 2024, will create additional Aframax demand in Vancouver, British Columbia, Mackay said, but it is uncertain where the increased cargoes will land.

"We'll have to wait and see how the oil trading environment picks up on that oil and where they can probably make the best margins," Mackay said. "The only sure thing is that you can only load an Aframax out of Vancouver."

Yearly profits double

Teekay reported a profit of $111.7mn in the fourth quarter, down from $146.4mn in the same period in 2023 after rates fell year on year and the company had more vessels dry docked. Still, full-year profit more than doubled to $513mn, up from $229mn in 2022.

Teekay operates a fleet 42 tankers — 25 Suezmax tankers and 17 Aframax or Long Range 2 tankers.

By Tray Swanson