EU Jan gas consumption highest in two years

EU gas consumption was up by around 9pc on the year in January and was the highest for any month since January 2022, preliminary data from Eurostat show.

Across the bloc's 27 member states, consumption was 8.8pc higher than in January last year, with demand up in all but two countries. Of the top five largest consumers — Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy and France — consumption was up in the latter four, most significantly in the Netherlands by nearly 22pc.

Germany, the bloc's largest consumer, was the notable exception. Consumption fell by just over 2pc on the year, according to Eurostat data. But this directly contradicts numbers from market area manager Trading Hub Europe (THE), which show aggregate high and low-calorie demand growing by a significant 16pc. If only including high-calorie demand, THE data shows an even larger year-on-year increase of roughly 19pc.

It is unclear why there is such a large discrepancy between Eurostat and THE data, although Eurostat told Argus that German data is provided to them by the German national statistics office Destatis. Argus compared historical data from Destatis and THE, and found that they were broadly in line with each other, with THE data typically slightly higher than Destatis', apart from the notable exception of January 2023 (see THE vs Destatis graph). This could suggest that Destatis' January 2023 data is erroneously high, and therefore why German consumption is shown falling on the year in January 2024. Destatis has only publicly released data for gas consumption through to the end of 2023, so January numbers are not yet available.

German gas-fired power production rose significantly to 6.5TWh, from 5TWh in January 2023, data from Fraunhofer ISE show, and Argus estimates that industrial demand was roughly 5pc higher.

Across the rest of the EU, the largest proportional increases came in the Baltic states and Finland, where consumption soared in January as a result of a severe cold snap, which drove up gas demand for heating.

January consumption was also higher than in the preceding month across all countries, and was overall the highest for any month since January 2022. EU demand has been on an upward trajectory since August, rising in each consecutive month from September-January (see EU monthly demand graph).

EU gas-fired power generation was 16pc higher in January than in the previous year, as gas was firmly ahead of coal in the merit order.

But January was broadly mild across most of Europe, helping to keep consumption muted. While gas demand was up nearly 9pc on the year, it was down by 15pc from the 2017-21 January average, potentially reflecting some more permanent changes in consumer demand patterns. The European Commission last week proposed an extension of its member states' voluntary 15pc gas demand reduction commitments by another year to facilitate filling storage sites and because security of supply remains "delicate". The EU Council agreed on an extension of the measures on Monday.

By Brendan A'Hearn

THE vs Destatis 2022-23 consumption data GWh

Consumption change percentage by country Y-o-Y

Consumption change percentage by country M-o-M

EU27 gas consumption PJ