US sees Venezuela election plan falling short

The US wants Venezuela to allow opposition candidates to run in the upcoming presidential elections, a senior US official said today, without explicitly insisting on leading opposition politician Maria Corina Machado's inclusion on the ballot.

The State Department vowed to reimpose restrictions on Venezuelan crude exports after 18 April unless Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government honors its pledge to hold free presidential elections with participation from opposition candidates.

Venezuela's electoral authority CNE said on 5 March that it will hold presidential elections on 28 July although a court ruling still bans opposition candidate Machado from participating. Machado, who overwhelmingly won an opposition primary last year to run in a presidential election, said she would not step down in favor of a different opposition candidate.

The US and its partners continue "to insist on the right of Venezuelan opposition to choose its candidate and for the right of the Venezuelan people to choose their next president," assistant secretary of state Brian Nichols said today. "It's on the democratically inclined parties in Venezuela to come together around a way forward," Nichols said. "We'll be taking our cues from the democratic opposition in Venezuela about the way forward."

The decision to temporarily lift US sanctions against Venezuela last year was a "calculated risk" to ensure Venezuela's progress toward a free and fair election, Nichols said at an event in Washington organized by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas business group. But the incentive from the US proved not sufficient "to motivate reforms and openness that [President Nicolas Maduro's] side believes would put their governance at risk," Nichols said. Machado's opposition primary attracted more voters than a referendum Maduro staged last year to lay a claim on neighboring Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo territory, "which sent a chilling message to Maduro," Nichols said.

The election timetable by CNE sets 21-24 March to register candidates. No mechanism has been announced for allowing some 4mn registered voters living abroad to participate, a move described by the opposition as a vote suppression tactic by Maduro's government.

A bipartisan group of senators, including Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Ben Cardin (D-Maryland), denounced the election announcement and called on the White House to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela. The US should refuse to recognize the election results if Machado is not allowed to participate, the senators said.

Sanctions relief impact

Any sanctions snapback is expected to spare the previously granted exemptions from sanctions that allows Chevron to lift oil from its joint venture with state-owned PdV, solely for imports into the US. Chevron said in December that its Venezuela output reached 150,000 b/d.

The sanctions relief, granted in October, has not significantly affected the US-bound Venezuelan volumes, which averaged 133,000 b/d last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Venezuela was once a top source of US crude imports, particularly for the Gulf coast refineries, but US sanctions cut off that flow from April 2019-December 2022.

Venezuela during that period exported crude primarily to China, through front companies and the use of the "shadow fleet" to avoid US sanctions.

Chinese imports remain at similar levels, but the relief of US sanctions has allowed refiners in India to resume Venezuelan imports. India imported 159,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude in February, almost triple the January volumes.

By Haik Gugarats